Embolization of Cyanoacrylate glue in systemic circulation in a case of hepatocellular carcinoma: an autopsy report

We report a case of embolism of the sclerosant dye with subsequent formation of foreign-body giant cell reaction within the veins of pulmonary and portal circulation in an autopsy case of hepatocellular carcinoma developing over an underlying primary biliary cirrhosis

Incidence and risk factors of oral feeding intolerance in acute pancreatitis: Results from an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study

Background: Inability to advance to an oral diet, or oral feeding intolerance, is a common complication in patients with acute pancreatitis associated with worse clinical outcomes. The factors related to oral feeding intolerance are not well studied. Objective: We aimed to determine the incidence and risk factors of oral feeding intolerance in acute pancreatitis. Methods: Patients were prospectively enrolled in the Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies in Clinical Experience, an international acute pancreatitis registry, between 2015 and 2018. Oral feeding intolerance was defined as worsening abdominal pain and/or vomiting after resumption of oral diet. The timing of the initial feeding attempt was stratified based on the day of hospitalization. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess for independent risk factors/predictors of oral feeding intolerance. Results: Of 1233 acute pancreatitis patients included in the study, 160 (13%) experienced oral feeding intolerance. The incidence of oral feeding intolerance was similar irrespective of the timing of the initial feeding attempt relative to hospital admission day (p = 0.41). Patients with oral feeding intolerance were more likely to be younger (45 vs. 50 years of age), men (61% vs. 49%), and active alcohol users (44% vs. 36%). They also had higher blood urea nitrogen (20 vs. 15 mg/dl; p < 0.001) and hematocrit levels (41.7% vs. 40.5%; p = 0.017) on admission; were more likely to have a nonbiliary acute pancreatitis etiology (69% vs. 51%), systemic inflammatory response syndrome of 2 or greater on admission (49% vs. 35%) and at 48 h (50% vs. 26%), develop pancreatic necrosis (29% vs. 13%), moderate to severe acute pancreatitis (41% vs. 24%), and have a longer hospital stay (10 vs. 6 days; all p < 0.04). The adjusted analysis showed that systemic inflammatory response syndrome of 2 or greater at 48 h (odds ratio 3.10; 95% confidence interval 1.83-5.25) and a nonbiliary acute pancreatitis etiology (odds ratio 1.65; 95% confidence interval 1.01-2.69) were independent risk factors for oral feeding intolerance. Conclusion: Oral feeding intolerance occurs in 13% of acute pancreatitis patients and is independently associated with systemic inflammatory response syndrome at 48 h and a nonbiliary etiology

Mortality in acute pancreatitis with persistent organ failure is determined by the number, type, and sequence of organ systems affected

Background: Persistent organ failure (POF) is the strongest determinant of mortality in acute pancreatitis (AP). There is a paucity of data regarding the impact of different POF attributes on mortality and the role of different characteristics of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) in the risk of developing POF. Objective: We aimed to assess the association of POF dynamic features with mortality and SIRS characteristics with POF. Methods: We studied 1544 AP subjects prospectively enrolled at 22 international centers (APPRENTICE consortium). First, we estimated the association of onset, duration, and maximal score of SIRS with POF. Then, we evaluated the risk of mortality based on POF onset, duration, number, type, and sequence of organs affected. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders. Results: 58% had SIRS, 11% developed POF, and 2.5% died. Early SIRS, persistent SIRS, and maximal SIRS score ≥ 3 were independently associated with higher risk of POF (p < 0.05). Mortality risk in POF was higher with two (33%, odds ratio [OR] = 10.8, 3.3-34.9) and three (48%, OR = 20.2, 5.9-68.6) organs failing, in comparison to single POF (4%). In subjects with multiple POF, mortality was higher when the cardiovascular and respiratory systems failed first or concurrently as compared to when the renal system failed first or concurrently with other organ (p < 0.05). In multivariate regression model, the number and sequence of organs affected in POF were associated with mortality (p < 0.05). Onset and duration of POF had no impact mortality. Conclusion: In AP patients with POF, the risk of mortality is influenced by the number, type, and sequence of organs affected. These results are useful for future revisions of AP severity classification systems

Worldwide Variations in Demographics, Management, and Outcomes of Acute Pancreatitis

Background & Aims Few studies have compared regional differences in acute pancreatitis. We analyzed data from an international registry of patients with acute pancreatitis to evaluate geographic variations in patient characteristics, management, and outcomes. Methods We collected data from the APPRENTICE registry of patients with acute pancreatitis, which obtains information from patients in Europe (6 centers), India (3 centers), Latin America (5 centers), and North America (8 centers) using standardized questionnaires. Our final analysis included 1,612 patients with acute pancreatitis (median age, 49 years; 53% male, 62% white) enrolled from August 2015 through January 2018. Results Biliary (45%) and alcoholic acute pancreatitis (21%) were the most common etiologies. Based on the revised Atlanta classification, 65% of patients developed mild disease, 23% moderate, and 12% severe. The mean age of patients in Europe (58 years) was older than mean age for all 4 regions (46 years) and a higher proportion of patients in Europe had comorbid conditions (73% vs 50% overall). The predominant etiology of acute pancreatitis in Latin America was biliary (78%), whereas alcohol-associated pancreatitis accounted for the highest proportion of acute pancreatitis cases in India (45%). Pain was managed with opioid analgesics in 93% of patients in North America versus 27% of patients in the other 3 regions. Cholecystectomies were performed at the time of hospital admission for most patients in Latin America (60% vs 15% overall). A higher proportion of European patients with severe acute pancreatitis died during the original hospital stay (44%) compared with the other 3 regions (15%). Conclusions We found significant variation in demographics, etiologies, management practices, and outcomes of acute pancreatitis worldwide

Introduction and Validation of a Novel Acute Pancreatitis Digital Tool: Interrogating Large Pooled Data From 2 Prospectively Ascertained Cohorts

Objectives: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a sudden onset, rapidly evolving inflammatory response with systemic inflammation and multiorgan failure (MOF) in a subset of patients. New highly accurate clinical decision support tools are needed to allow local doctors to provide expert care. Methods: Ariel Dynamic Acute Pancreatitis Tracker (ADAPT) is a digital tool to guide physicians in ordering standard tests, evaluate test results and model progression using available data, propose emergent therapies. The accuracy of the severity score calculators was tested using 2 prospectively ascertained Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies in Clinical Experience cohorts (pilot University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, n = 163; international, n = 1544). Results: The ADAPT and post hoc expert-calculated AP severity scores were 100% concordant in both pilot and international cohorts. High-risk criteria of all 4 severity scores at admission were associated with moderately-severe or severe AP and MOF (both P < 0.0001) and prediction of no MOF was 97.8% to 98.9%. The positive predictive value for MOF was 7.5% to 14.9%. Conclusions: The ADAPT tool showed 100% accuracy with AP predictive metrics. Prospective evaluation of ADAPT features is needed to determine if additional data can accurately predict and mitigate severe AP and MOF

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Child growth failure (CGF), manifested as stunting, wasting, and underweight, is associated with high 5 mortality and increased risks of cognitive, physical, and metabolic impairments. Children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face the highest levels of CGF globally. Here we illustrate national and subnational variation of under-5 CGF indicators across LMICs, providing 2000–2017 annual estimates mapped at a high spatial resolution and aggregated to policy-relevant administrative units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the World Health 10 Organization’s ambitious Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and rates of progress exist across regions, countries, and within countries; our maps identify areas where high prevalence persists even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where subnational disparities exist and the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning locally 15 tailored interventions and efficient directing of resources to accelerate progress in reducing CGF and its health implications

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2017 includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning