Exploring possible links between Quaternary aggradation in the Upper Rhine Graben and the glaciation history of northern Switzerland

The Quaternary filling of the Upper Rhine Graben is an excellent archive to reconstruct sediment dynamics in response to climate change, in particular related to past glaciations of the Swiss Alpine Foreland. Here, a sediment sequence recovered by drilling for exploration purposes near Kronau is investigated, using a combination of sedimentological logging, provenance studies (heavy minerals and clast petrography), and luminescence dating. Several phases of coarse sediment aggradation are identified that possibly correlate to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12 (478-424 ka), 10 (374-337 ka), 8 (300-243 ka), 6 (191-130 ka) and/or 4 (71-57 ka), and 2 (29-14 ka). Several of these phases have previously also been reported from cores recovered in the major Quaternary depo-centre near Heidelberg. This suggests that the observed coarse aggradation in the Upper Rhine Graben can be assigned to various glaciations in northern Switzerland: Mohlin (MIS 12), Habsburg (MIS 10 or 8), Beringen (MIS 6), an unnamed glacial advance during MIS 4, and Birrfeld (MIS 2). However, due to the limited data available, this hypothesis and the suggested correlations require further confirmation by applying the approach presented here to further cores from the Upper Rhine Graben.</p

High-resolution record of stable isotopes in soil carbonates reveals environmental dynamics in an arid region (central Iran) during the last 32 ka

Although central Iran is pivotal for palaeoclimatic correlations, palaeoenvironmental data for this region is very sparse and a reliable chronology for pedogenic features is lacking. We therefore tried to answer the question how the environmental conditions and, in particular, the climate developed over time by using the isotopic signatures of pedogenic carbonates. We present a chronology of pedogenic carbonates in association with stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in both the matrix and coating carbonates of a relict palаeosol (Baharan palaeosol) in central Iran to understand the dynamics of environmental changes in this region during the late Quaternary. The palаeosol experienced several episodes of leaching during pedogenesis as reflected in its morphology (carbonate coatings under the rock fractions) and geochemical characteristics (Ba/Sr ratios). The δ$^{18}$O values of both the matrix and coating carbonates in the upper 60 cm (especially in the upper 20 cm) of the pedon are enriched (∼4‰) compared to the subsoil and are mainly related to the impact of evaporation. Moreover, the δ$^{13}$C values of the carbonates are in isotopic disequilibrium with the modern vegetation cover (desert shrubs) of the study area and are enriched in different degrees. The carbonates in the top 60 cm are formed by the input of atmospheric CO$_{2}$ and calcareous dust while deeper carbonates formed in an environment exhibiting a higher contribution of C$_{4}$ plants. Based on the radiocarbon chronology of carbonate coatings, it seems that three main stages of palaeoenvironmental changes occurred in the region during the last 32 ka. The first stage lasted ca. 5,000 years (between 31.6 and 26.0 ka) and was accompanied by deep leaching under sub-humid climatic conditions and the expansion of C$_{4}$ plants. Under the dominance of semi-arid conditions during the second stage until the late Holocene, a gradual increase in the δ$^{18}$O values and aridity occurred in the region. The last phase in the late Holocene was characterised by the establishment of an arid and evaporative environment with a sparse vegetation cover. A climatic correlation using the oxygen isotopic composition of secondary carbonates from the Baharan palaeosol, Soreq Cave (the Levant) and Hoti Cave (Oman; both having speleothems records) suggested a climatic connection between central Iran and the eastern Mediterranean during the late Pleistocene and between central Iran and northern Oman during the late Holocene

Continental aridification and the vanishing of Australia\u27s megalakes

The nature of the Australian climate at about the time of rapid megafaunal extinctions and humans arriving in Australia is poorly understood and is an important element in the contentious debate as to whether humans or climate caused the extinctions. Here we present a new paleoshoreline chronology that extends over the past 100 k.y. for Lake Mega-Frome, the coalescence of Lakes Frome, Blanche, Callabonna and Gregory, in the southern latitudes of central Australia. We show that Lake Mega-Frome was connected for the last time to adjacent Lake Eyre at 50-47 ka, forming the largest remaining interconnected system of paleolakes on the Australian continent. The final disconnection and a progressive drop in the level of Lake Mega-Frome represents a major climate shift to aridification that coincided with the arrival of humans and the demise of the megafauna. The supply of moisture to the Australian continent at various times in the Quaternary has commonly been ascribed to an enhanced monsoon. This study, in combination with other paleoclimate data, provides reliable evidence for periods of enhanced tropical and enhanced Southern Ocean sources of water filling these lakes at different times during the last full glacial cycle. © 2011 Geological Society of America

Palaeo-dust records: a window to understanding past environments

Dust entrainment, transport over vast distances and subsequent deposition is a fundamental part of the Earth system. Yet the role and importance of dust has been underappreciated, due largely to challenges associated with recognising dust in the landscape and interpreting its depositional history. Despite these challenges, interest in dust is growing. Technical advances in remote sensing and modelling have improved understanding of dust sources and production, while advances in sedimentology, mineralogy and geochemistry (in particular) have allowed dust to be more easily distinguished within sedimentary deposits. This has facilitated the reconstruction of records of dust emissions through time. A key advance in our understanding of dust has occurred following the development of methods to geochemically provenance (fingerprint) dust to its source region. This ability has provided new information on dust transport pathways, as well as the reach and impact of dust. It has also expanded our understanding of the processes driving dust emissions over decadal to millennial timescales through linking dust deposits directly to source area conditions. Dust provenance studies have shown that dust emission, transport and deposition are highly sensitive to variability in climate. They also imply that dust emissions are not simply a function of the degree of aridity in source areas, but respond to a more complex array of conditions, including sediment availability. As well as recording natural variability, dust records are also shown to sensitively track the impact of human activity. This is reflected by both changing dust emission rates and changing dust chemistry. Specific examples of how dust responds to, and records change, are provided with our work on dust emissions from Australia, the most arid inhabited continent and the largest dust source in the Southern Hemisphere. These case studies show that Australian dust emissions reflect hydro-climate variability, with reorganisation of Australian dust source areas occurring during the mid to late Holocene. Dust emissions are shown to sensitively map the structure of the Last Glacial Maximum in Australia, demonstrating that this period was associated with enhanced, but also variable dust emissions, driven by changing sources area conditions. Finally we show how dust emissions have responded to the arrival of Europeans and the associated onset of broad-scale agriculture across the Australian continent

Early and Middle Holocene Hunter-Gatherer Occupations in Western Amazonia: The Hidden Shell Middens

We report on previously unknown early archaeological sites in the Bolivian lowlands, demonstrating for the first time early and middle Holocene human presence in western Amazonia. Multidisciplinary research in forest islands situated in seasonally-inundated savannahs has revealed stratified shell middens produced by human foragers as early as 10,000 years ago, making them the oldest archaeological sites in the region. The absence of stone resources and partial burial by recent alluvial sediments has meant that these kinds of deposits have, until now, remained unidentified. We conducted core sampling, archaeological excavations and an interdisciplinary study of the stratigraphy and recovered materials from three shell midden mounds. Based on multiple lines of evidence, including radiocarbon dating, sedimentary proxies (elements, steroids and black carbon), micromorphology and faunal analysis, we demonstrate the anthropogenic origin and antiquity of these sites. In a tropical and geomorphologically active landscape often considered challenging both for early human occupation and for the preservation of hunter-gatherer sites, the newly discovered shell middens provide evidence for early to middle Holocene occupation and illustrate the potential for identifying and interpreting early open-air archaeological sites in western Amazonia. The existence of early hunter-gatherer sites in the Bolivian lowlands sheds new light on the region's past and offers a new context within which the late Holocene "Earthmovers" of the Llanos de Moxos could have emerged. © 2013 Lombardo et al

Crowdsourcing hypothesis tests: Making transparent how design choices shape research results

To what extent are research results influenced by subjective decisions that scientists make as they design studies? Fifteen research teams independently designed studies to answer fiveoriginal research questions related to moral judgments, negotiations, and implicit cognition. Participants from two separate large samples (total N > 15,000) were then randomly assigned to complete one version of each study. Effect sizes varied dramatically across different sets of materials designed to test the same hypothesis: materials from different teams renderedstatistically significant effects in opposite directions for four out of five hypotheses, with the narrowest range in estimates being d = -0.37 to +0.26. Meta-analysis and a Bayesian perspective on the results revealed overall support for two hypotheses, and a lack of support for three hypotheses. Overall, practically none of the variability in effect sizes was attributable to the skill of the research team in designing materials, while considerable variability was attributable to the hypothesis being tested. In a forecasting survey, predictions of other scientists were significantly correlated with study results, both across and within hypotheses. Crowdsourced testing of research hypotheses helps reveal the true consistency of empirical support for a scientific claim.</div

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A multi-country test of brief reappraisal interventions on emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased negative emotions and decreased positive emotions globally. Left unchecked, these emotional changes might have a wide array of adverse impacts. To reduce negative emotions and increase positive emotions, we tested the effectiveness of reappraisal, an emotion-regulation strategy that modifies how one thinks about a situation. Participants from 87 countries and regions (n = 21,644) were randomly assigned to one of two brief reappraisal interventions (reconstrual or repurposing) or one of two control conditions (active or passive). Results revealed that both reappraisal interventions (vesus both control conditions) consistently reduced negative emotions and increased positive emotions across different measures. Reconstrual and repurposing interventions had similar effects. Importantly, planned exploratory analyses indicated that reappraisal interventions did not reduce intentions to practice preventive health behaviours. The findings demonstrate the viability of creating scalable, low-cost interventions for use around the world