A pilot Internet "Value of Health" Panel: recruitment, participation and compliance

Objectives To pilot using a panel of members of the public to provide preference data via the Internet Methods A stratified random sample of members of the general public was recruited and familiarised with the standard gamble procedure using an Internet based tool. Health states were perdiodically presented in "sets" corresponding to different conditions, during the study. The following were described: Recruitment (proportion of people approached who were trained); Participation (a) the proportion of people trained who provided any preferences and (b) the proportion of panel members who contributed to each "set" of values; and Compliance (the proportion, per participant, of preference tasks which were completed). The influence of covariates on these outcomes was investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results A panel of 112 people was recruited. 23% of those approached (n = 5,320) responded to the invitation, and 24% of respondents (n = 1,215) were willing to participate (net = 5.5%). However, eventual recruitment rates, following training, were low (2.1% of those approached). Recruitment from areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities was low. Eighteen sets of health state descriptions were considered over 14 months. 74% of panel members carried out at least one valuation task. People from areas of higher socioeconomic deprivation and unmarried people were less likely to participate. An average of 41% of panel members expressed preferences on each set of descriptions. Compliance ranged from 3% to 100%. Conclusion It is feasible to establish a panel of members of the general public to express preferences on a wide range of health state descriptions using the Internet, although differential recruitment and attrition are important challenges. Particular attention to recruitment and retention in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation and among ethnic minority communities is necessary. Nevertheless, the panel approach to preference measurement using the Internet offers the potential to provide specific utility data in a responsive manner for use in economic evaluations and to address some of the outstanding methodological uncertainties in this field

Assessment of possible impact of a health promotion program in Korea from health risk trends in a longitudinally observed cohort

BACKGROUND: Longitudinally observed cohort data can be utilized to assess the potential for health promotion and healthcare planning by comparing the estimated risk factor trends of non-intervened with that of intervened. The paper seeks (1) to estimate a natural transition (patterns of movement between states) of health risk state from a Korean cohort data using a Markov model, (2) to derive an effective and necessary health promotion strategy for the population, and (3) to project a possible impact of an intervention program on health status. METHODS: The observed transition of health risk states in a Korean employee cohort was utilized to estimate the natural flow of aggregated health risk states from eight health risk measures using Markov chain models. In addition, a reinforced transition was simulated, given that a health promotion program was implemented for the cohort, to project a possible impact on improvement of health status. An intervened risk transition was obtained based on age, gender, and baseline risk state, adjusted to match with the Korean cohort, from a simulated random sample of a US employee population, where a health intervention was in place. RESULTS: The estimated natural flow (non-intervened), following Markov chain order 2, showed a decrease in low risk state by 3.1 percentage points in the Korean population while the simulated reinforced transition (intervened) projected an increase in low risk state by 7.5 percentage points. Estimated transitions of risk states demonstrated the necessity of not only the risk reduction but also low risk maintenance. CONCLUSIONS: The frame work of Markov chain efficiently estimated the trend, and captured the tendency in the natural flow. Given only a minimally intense health promotion program, potential risk reduction and low risk maintenance was projected

African-American inflammatory bowel disease in a Southern U.S. health center

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD) remain significant health problems in the US and worldwide. IBD is most often associated with eastern European ancestry, and is less frequently reported in other populations of African origin e.g. African Americans ('AAs'). Whether AAs represent an important population with IBD in the US remains unclear since few studies have investigated IBD in communities with a majority representation of AA patients. The Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center in Shreveport (LSUHSC-S) is a tertiary care medical center, with a patient base composed of 58% AA and 39% Caucasian (W), ideal for evaluating racial (AA vs. W) as well and gender (M vs. F) influences on IBD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this retrospective study, we evaluated 951 visits to LSUHSC-S for IBD (between 2000 to 2008) using non-identified patient information based on ICD-9 medical record coding (Crohn's disease 'CD'-555.0- 555.9 and ulcerative colitis 'UC'-556.0-556.9).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, there were more cases of CD seen than UC. UC and CD affected similar ratios of AA and Caucasian males (M) and females (F) with a rank order of WF > WM > AAF > AAM. Interestingly, in CD, we found that annual visits per person was the highest in AA M (10.7 ± 1.7); significantly higher (* -p < 0.05) than in WM (6.3 ± 1.0). Further, in CD, the female to male (F: M) ratio in AA was significantly higher (*- p < 0.05) (1.9 ± 0.2) than in Caucasians (F:M = 1.3 ± 0.1) suggesting a female dominance in AACD; no differences were seen in UC F: M ratios.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although Caucasians still represent the greatest fraction of IBD (~64%), AAs with IBD made up >1/3 (36.4%) of annual IBD cases from 2000-2008 at LSUHSC-S. Further studies on genetic and environments risks for IBD risk in AAs are needed to understand differences in presentation and progression in AAs and other 'non-traditional' populations.</p

An economic model of long-term use of celecoxib in patients with osteoarthritis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous evaluations of the cost-effectiveness of the cyclooxygenase-2 selective inhibitor celecoxib (Celebrex, Pfizer Inc, USA) have produced conflicting results. The recent controversy over the cardiovascular (CV) risks of rofecoxib and other coxibs has renewed interest in the economic profile of celecoxib, the only coxib now available in the United States. The objective of our study was to evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of celecoxib compared with nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (nsNSAIDs) in a population of 60-year-old osteoarthritis (OA) patients with average risks of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) complications who require chronic daily NSAID therapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used decision analysis based on data from the literature to evaluate cost-effectiveness from a modified societal perspective over patients' lifetimes, with outcomes expressed as incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity tests were performed to evaluate the impacts of advancing age, CV thromboembolic event risk, different analytic horizons and alternate treatment strategies after UGI adverse events.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our main findings were: 1) the base model incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for celecoxib versus nsNSAIDs was $31,097 per QALY; 2) the ICER per QALY was$19,309 for a model in which UGI ulcer and ulcer complication event risks increased with advancing age; 3) the ICER per QALY was $17,120 in sensitivity analyses combining serious CV thromboembolic event (myocardial infarction, stroke, CV death) risks with base model assumptions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our model suggests that chronic celecoxib is cost-effective versus nsNSAIDs in a population of 60-year-old OA patients with average risks of UGI events.</p

Key mechanisms governing resolution of lung inflammation

Innate immunity normally provides excellent defence against invading microorganisms. Acute inflammation is a form of innate immune defence and represents one of the primary responses to injury, infection and irritation, largely mediated by granulocyte effector cells such as neutrophils and eosinophils. Failure to remove an inflammatory stimulus (often resulting in failed resolution of inflammation) can lead to chronic inflammation resulting in tissue injury caused by high numbers of infiltrating activated granulocytes. Successful resolution of inflammation is dependent upon the removal of these cells. Under normal physiological conditions, apoptosis (programmed cell death) precedes phagocytic recognition and clearance of these cells by, for example, macrophages, dendritic and epithelial cells (a process known as efferocytosis). Inflammation contributes to immune defence within the respiratory mucosa (responsible for gas exchange) because lung epithelia are continuously exposed to a multiplicity of airborne pathogens, allergens and foreign particles. Failure to resolve inflammation within the respiratory mucosa is a major contributor of numerous lung diseases. This review will summarise the major mechanisms regulating lung inflammation, including key cellular interplays such as apoptotic cell clearance by alveolar macrophages and macrophage/neutrophil/epithelial cell interactions. The different acute and chronic inflammatory disease states caused by dysregulated/impaired resolution of lung inflammation will be discussed. Furthermore, the resolution of lung inflammation during neutrophil/eosinophil-dominant lung injury or enhanced resolution driven via pharmacological manipulation will also be considered

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Dealing with Time in Health Economic Evaluation: Methodological Issues and Recommendations for Practice

Time is an important aspect of health economic evaluation, as the timing and duration of clinical events, healthcare interventions and their consequences all affect estimated costs and effects. These issues should be reflected in the design of health economic models. This article considers three important aspects of time in modelling: (1) which cohorts to simulate and how far into the future to extend the analysis; (2) the simulation of time, including the difference between discrete-time and continuous-time models, cycle lengths, and converting rates and probabilities; and (3) discounting future costs and effects to their present values. We provide a methodological overview of these issues and make recommendations to help inform both the conduct of cost-effectiveness analyses and the interpretation of their results. For choosing which cohorts to simulate and how many, we suggest analysts carefully assess potential reasons for variation in cost effectiveness between cohorts and the feasibility of subgroup-specific recommendations. For the simulation of time, we recommend using short cycles or continuous-time models to avoid biases and the need for half-cycle corrections, and provide advice on the correct conversion of transition probabilities in state transition models. Finally, for discounting, analysts should not only follow current guidance and report how discounting was conducted, especially in the case of differential discounting, but also seek to develop an understanding of its rationale. Our overall recommendations are that analysts explicitly state and justify their modelling choices regarding time and consider how alternative choices may impact on results

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