Fractal Profit Landscape of the Stock Market

We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q. Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Computational Fitness Landscape for All Gene-Order Permutations of an RNA Virus

How does the growth of a virus depend on the linear arrangement of genes in its genome? Answering this question may enhance our basic understanding of virus evolution and advance applications of viruses as live attenuated vaccines, gene-therapy vectors, or anti-tumor therapeutics. We used a mathematical model for vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), a prototype RNA virus that encodes five genes (N-P-M-G-L), to simulate the intracellular growth of all 120 possible gene-order variants. Simulated yields of virus infection varied by 6,000-fold and were found to be most sensitive to gene-order permutations that increased levels of the L gene transcript or reduced levels of the N gene transcript, the lowest and highest expressed genes of the wild-type virus, respectively. Effects of gene order on virus growth also depended upon the host-cell environment, reflecting different resources for protein synthesis and different cell susceptibilities to infection. Moreover, by computationally deleting intergenic attenuations, which define a key mechanism of transcriptional regulation in VSV, the variation in growth associated with the 120 gene-order variants was drastically narrowed from 6,000- to 20-fold, and many variants produced higher progeny yields than wild-type. These results suggest that regulation by intergenic attenuation preceded or co-evolved with the fixation of the wild type gene order in the evolution of VSV. In summary, our models have begun to reveal how gene functions, gene regulation, and genomic organization of viruses interact with their host environments to define processes of viral growth and evolution

Accumulated coercion and short-term outcome of inpatient psychiatric care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The knowledge of the impact of coercion on psychiatric treatment outcome is limited. Multiple measures of coercion have been recommended. The aim of the study was to examine the impact of accumulated coercive incidents on short-term outcome of inpatient psychiatric care</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>233 involuntarily and voluntarily admitted patients were interviewed within five days of admission and at discharge or after maximum three weeks of care. Coercion was measured as number of coercive incidents, i.e. subjectively reported and in the medical files recorded coercive incidents, including legal status and perceived coercion at admission, and recorded and reported coercive measures during treatment. Outcome was measured both as subjective improvement of mental health and as improvement in professionally assessed functioning according to GAF. Logistic regression analyses were performed with patient characteristics and coercive incidents as independent and the two outcome measures as dependent variables</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Number of coercive incidents did not predict subjective or assessed improvement. Patients having other diagnoses than psychoses or mood disorders were less likely to be subjectively improved, while a low GAF at admission predicted an improvement in GAF scores</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results indicate that subjectively and professionally assessed mental health short-term outcome of acute psychiatric hospitalisation are not predicted by the amount of subjectively and recorded coercive incidents. Further studies are needed to examine the short- and long-term effects of coercive interventions in psychiatric care.</p

Influenza A Virus Coding Regions Exhibit Host-Specific Global Ordered RNA Structure

Influenza A is a significant public health threat, partially because of its capacity to readily exchange gene segments between different host species to form novel pandemic strains. An understanding of the fundamental factors providing species barriers between different influenza hosts would facilitate identification of strains capable of leading to pandemic outbreaks and could also inform vaccine development. Here, we describe the difference in predicted RNA secondary structure stability that exists between avian, swine and human coding regions. The results predict that global ordered RNA structure exists in influenza A segments 1, 5, 7 and 8, and that ranges of free energies for secondary structure formation differ between host strains. The predicted free energy distributions for strains from avian, swine, and human species suggest criteria for segment reassortment and strains that might be ideal candidates for viral attenuation and vaccine development

Low level of physical activity in women with rheumatoid arthritis is associated with cardiovascular risk factors but not with body fat mass - a cross sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As many patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have increased fat mass (FM) and increased frequency of cardiovascular diseases we evaluated if total physical activity (MET-hours) had impact on body composition and cardiovascular risk factors in women with RA.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sixty-one out-ward RA women, 60.8 (57.3-64.4) years, answered a self-administered questionnaire, to estimate total daily physical activity during the previous year. Physical activity level was given as metabolic equivalents (MET) × h/day. Diet content was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire and body composition by whole-body dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Blood lipids and antibodies against phosphorylcholine (anti-PC) were determined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Forty-one percent of the women had BMI > 25, 6% were centrally obese and 80% had FM% > 30%. The median (IQR) total physical activity was 40.0 (37.4-47.7), i.e. the same activity level as healthy Swedish women in the same age. Total physical activity did not significantly correlate with disease activity, BMI or FM%. Disease activity, BMI and FM% did not differ between those in the lowest quartile of total physical activity and those in the highest quartile. However, the women in the lowest quartile of physical activity had lower HDL (p = 0.05), Apo A1 (p = 0.005) and atheroprotective natural anti-PC (p = 0.016) and higher levels of insulin (p = 0.05) and higher frequency of insulin resistance than those in the highest quartile. Women in the lowest quartile consumed larger quantities of saturated fatty acids than those in the highest quartile (p = 0.042), which was associated with high oxidized low-density lipoprotein (oxLDL).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This cross sectional study demonstrated that RA women with fairly low disease activity, good functional capacity, high FM and high frequency of central obesity had the same total physical activity level as healthy Swedish women in the same age. The amount of total physical activity was not associated with functional capacity or body composition. However, low total physical activity was associated with dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, low levels of atheroprotective anti-PC and consumption of saturated fatty acids, which is of interest in the context of increased frequency of cardiovascular disease in RA.</p

Analysis of incidence and prognostic factors for ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence and its impact on disease-specific survival of women with node-negative breast cancer: a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: This study had three aims: to establish the incidence of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) in a community treatment setting, to evaluate known factors – in particular younger age (< 40 years) – predictive for local recurrence, and to assess the impact of local recurrence on disease-specific survival (DSS). METHODS: A consecutive series of 1,540 women with node-negative breast cancer, diagnosed between the ages of 18–75 years, were prospectively accrued between September 1987 and September 1999. All had undergone a resection of the primary breast cancer with clear margins, an axillary lymph node dissection with a minimum of four sampled nodes, and breast-conserving surgery (of any type). RESULTS: During the study follow-up period, 98 (6.4%) IBTRs and 117 (7.6%) deaths from or with breast cancer were observed. The median time to IBTR was 3.1 years and to death from or with disease was 4.3 years. In the multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression model for IBTR with adjuvant therapy factors, independent risk factors included age < 40 years (relative risk (RR) = 1.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.00 – 3.58), presence of intraductal disease (RR = 1.81, 95% CI = 1.15–2.85) and histological grade ('G2' or G3 versus G1: RR = 1.59, 95% CI = 0.87–2.94). In the multivariate Cox PH regression model for DSS with adjuvant therapy factors, independent risk factors included previous IBTR (RR = 2.58, 95% CI = 1.41–4.72), tumor size (1–2 cm versus < 1 cm: RR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.05–3.64, > 2 cm versus < 1 cm: RR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.56–5.56), progesterone receptor status (negative or equivocal versus positive or unknown: RR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.36–3.39), lymphatic invasion (RR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.17–2.72), and histological grade ('G2' or G3 versus G1: RR = 8.59, 95% CI = 2.09–35.36). The effects of competing risks could be ignored. CONCLUSION: The Cox PH analyses confirmed the importance of known risk factors for IBTR and DSS in a community treatment setting. This study also revealed that the early occurrence of an IBTR is associated with a relatively poor five-year survival rate

Observation and study of baryonic B decays: B -> D(*) p pbar, D(*) p pbar pi, and D(*) p pbar pi pi

We present a study of ten B-meson decays to a D(*), a proton-antiproton pair, and a system of up to two pions using BaBar's data set of 455x10^6 BBbar pairs. Four of the modes (B0bar -> D0 p anti-p, B0bar -> D*0 p anti-p, B0bar -> D+ p anti-p pi-, B0bar -> D*+ p anti-p pi-) are studied with improved statistics compared to previous measurements; six of the modes (B- -> D0 p anti-p pi-, B- -> D*0 p anti-p pi-, B0bar -> D0 p anti-p pi- pi+, B0bar -> D*0 p anti-p pi- pi+, B- -> D+ p anti-p pi- pi-, B- -> D*+ p anti-p pi- pi-) are first observations. The branching fractions for 3- and 5-body decays are suppressed compared to 4-body decays. Kinematic distributions for 3-body decays show non-overlapping threshold enhancements in m(p anti-p) and m(D(*)0 p) in the Dalitz plots. For 4-body decays, m(p pi-) mass projections show a narrow peak with mass and full width of (1497.4 +- 3.0 +- 0.9) MeV/c2, and (47 +- 12 +- 4) MeV/c2, respectively, where the first (second) errors are statistical (systematic). For 5-body decays, mass projections are similar to phase space expectations. All results are preliminary.Comment: 28 pages, 90 postscript figures, submitted to LP0

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Search for pair-produced long-lived neutral particles decaying to jets in the ATLAS hadronic calorimeter in ppcollisions at √s=8TeV

The ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN is used to search for the decay of a scalar boson to a pair of long-lived particles, neutral under the Standard Model gauge group, in 20.3fb−1of data collected in proton–proton collisions at √s=8TeV. This search is sensitive to long-lived particles that decay to Standard Model particles producing jets at the outer edge of the ATLAS electromagnetic calorimeter or inside the hadronic calorimeter. No significant excess of events is observed. Limits are reported on the product of the scalar boson production cross section times branching ratio into long-lived neutral particles as a function of the proper lifetime of the particles. Limits are reported for boson masses from 100 GeVto 900 GeV, and a long-lived neutral particle mass from 10 GeVto 150 GeV

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT