Habitat distribution modeling reveals vegetation flammability and land use as drivers of wildfire in SW Patagonia

Despite important recent advances in modeling current and future global fire activity in relation to biophysical predictors there remain important uncertainties about finer-scale spatial heterogeneity of fire and especially about human influences which are typically assessed at coarse-spatial resolutions. The purpose of the current study is to quantify the influence of biophysical and anthropogenic variables on the spatial distribution of wildfire activity between 1984 and 2010 over an extensive southern Patagonian-Andean region from ca. 43° to 53° S extending from coastal rainforests to xeric woodland and steppe. We used satellite imagery to map all detectable fires > 5 ha from 1984 to 2010 in four study areas (each of 13,100 to 36,635 km2) and field checked 65 of these burns for accuracy of burned vegetation class and fire perimeters. Then, we used the MaxEnt modeling technique to assess the relationships of wildfire distributions to biophysical and human environmental variables in each of the four regions. The 232 fires > 5 ha mapped in the four study areas accounted for an area of 1,314 km2 indicating that at least 1.8% of the total area burned between 1984 and 2010. In general, areas with intermediate productivity levels (e.g. shrublands) have higher fire probability compared with areas of low and high productivity levels, such as steppe and wet forests, respectively. There is a marked contrast in the flammability of broad vegetation classes in determining fire activity at a regional scale, as well as a strong spatial relationship of wildfires to anthropogenic variables. The juxtaposition of fire-resistant tall forests with fire-prone shrublands and woodlands creates the potential for positive feedbacks from human-set fires to gradually increase the flammability of extensive landscapes through repeated burning. Distance to roads and settlements were also strong predictors, suggesting that fire in all regions is ignition-limited. However, these anthropogenic predictors influenced probability of fire differently among study regions depending on their main land-use practices and their past and present socioeconomic contexts.Fil: Paritsis, Juan. State University Of Colorado-boulder; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Holz, Andrés. State University Of Colorado-boulder; Estados UnidosFil: Veblen, Thomas T.. State University Of Colorado-boulder; Estados UnidosFil: Kitzberger, Thomas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentin

Holocene Dynamics of Temperate Rainforests in West-Central Patagonia

Analyses of long-term ecosystem dynamics offer insights into the conditions that have led to stability vs. rapid change in the past and the importance of disturbance in regulating community composition. In this study, we (1) used lithology, pollen, and charcoal data from Mallín Casanova (47°S) to reconstruct the wetland, vegetation, and fire history of west-central Patagonia; and (2) compared the records with independent paleoenvironmental and archeological information to assess the effects of past climate and human activity on ecosystem dynamics. Pollen data indicate that Nothofagus-Pilgerodendronforests were established by 9,000 cal yr BP. Although the biodiversity of the understory increased between 8,480 and 5,630 cal yr BP, forests remained relatively unchanged from 9,000 to 2,000 cal yr BP. The charcoal record registers high fire-episode frequency in the early Holocene followed by low biomass burning between 6,500 and 2,000 cal yr BP. Covarying trends in charcoal, bog development, and Neoglacial advances suggest that climate was the primary driver of these changes. After 2,000 cal yr BP, the proxy data indicate (a) increased fire-episode frequency; (b) centennial-scale shifts in bog and forest composition; (c) the emergence of vegetation-fire linkages not recorded in previous times; and (d) paludification in the last 500 years possibly associated with forest loss. Our results therefore suggest that Nothofagus-Pilgerodendrondominance was maintained through much of the Holocene despite long-term changes in climate and fire. Unparalleled fluctuations in local ecosystems during the last two millennia were governed by disturbance-vegetation-hydrology feedbacks likely triggered by greater climate variability and deforestation

ENSO Controls Interannual Fire Activity in Southeast Australia

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode controlling the variability in the ocean-atmosphere system in the South Pacific. While the ENSO influence on rainfall regimes in the South Pacific is well documented, its role in driving spatiotemporal trends in fire activity in this region has not been rigorously investigated. This is particularly the case for the highly flammable and densely populated southeast Australian sector, where ENSO is a major control over climatic variability. Here we conduct the first region-wide analysis of how ENSO controls fire activity in southeast Australia. We identify a significant relationship between ENSO and both fire frequency and area burnt. Critically, wavelet analyses reveal that despite substantial temporal variability in the ENSO system, ENSO exerts a persistent and significant influence on southeast Australian fire activity. Our analysis has direct application for developing robust predictive capacity for the increasingly important efforts at fire management

Holocene Dynamics of Temperate Rainforests in West-Central Patagonia

Analyses of long-term ecosystem dynamics offer insights into the conditions that have led to stability vs. rapid change in the past and the importance of disturbance in regulating community composition. In this study, we (1) used lithology, pollen, and charcoal data from Mallín Casanova (47°S) to reconstruct the wetland, vegetation, and fire history of west-central Patagonia; and (2) compared the records with independent paleoenvironmental and archeological information to assess the effects of past climate and human activity on ecosystem dynamics. Pollen data indicate that Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron forests were established by 9,000 cal yr BP. Although the biodiversity of the understory increased between 8,480 and 5,630 cal yr BP, forests remained relatively unchanged from 9,000 to 2,000 cal yr BP. The charcoal record registers high fire-episode frequency in the early Holocene followed by low biomass burning between 6,500 and 2,000 cal yr BP. Covarying trends in charcoal, bog development, and Neoglacial advances suggest that climate was the primary driver of these changes. After 2,000 cal yr BP, the proxy data indicate (a) increased fire-episode frequency; (b) centennial-scale shifts in bog and forest composition; (c) the emergence of vegetation-fire linkages not recorded in previous times; and (d) paludification in the last 500 years possibly associated with forest loss. Our results therefore suggest that Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron dominance was maintained through much of the Holocene despite long-term changes in climate and fire. Unparalleled fluctuations in local ecosystems during the last two millennia were governed by disturbance-vegetation-hydrology feedbacks likely triggered by greater climate variability and deforestation.This work was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (0966472, 0956552, 0602166), the National Geographic Society (7988-06), and the Department of Archaeology and Natural History at the Australian National University

A possible role for river restoration enhancing biodiversity through interaction with wildfire

BackgroundHistorically, wildfire regimes produced important landscape-scale disturbances in many regions globally. The “pyrodiversity begets biodiversity” hypothesis suggests that wildfires that generate temporally and spatially heterogeneous mosaics of wildfire severity and post-burn recovery enhance biodiversity at landscape scales. However, river management has often led to channel incision that disconnects rivers from their floodplains, desiccating floodplain habitats and depleting groundwater. In conjunction with predicted increases in frequency, intensity and extent of wildfires under climate change, this increases the likelihood of deep, uniform burns that reduce biodiversity.Predicted synergy of river restoration and biodiversity increaseRecent focus on floodplain re-wetting and restoration of successional floodplain habitat mosaics, developed for river management and flood prevention, could reduce wildfire intensity in restored floodplains and make the burns less uniform, increasing climate-change resilience; an important synergy. According to theory, this would also enhance biodiversity. However, this possibility is yet to be tested empirically. We suggest potential research avenues.Illustration and future directionsWe illustrate the interaction between wildfire and river restoration using a restoration project in Oregon, USA. A project to reconnect the South Fork McKenzie River and its floodplain suffered a major burn (“Holiday Farm” wildfire, 2020), offering a rare opportunity to study the interaction between this type of river restoration and wildfire; specifically, the predicted increases in pyrodiversity and biodiversity. Given the importance of river and wetland ecosystems for biodiversity globally, a research priority should be to increase our understanding of potential mechanisms for a “triple win” of flood reduction, wildfire alleviation and biodiversity promotion

APOSTEL 2.0 Recommendations for Reporting Quantitative Optical Coherence Tomography Studies.

OBJECTIVE To update the consensus recommendations for reporting of quantitative optical coherence tomography (OCT) study results, thus revising the previously published Advised Protocol for OCT Study Terminology and Elements (APOSTEL) recommendations. METHODS To identify studies reporting quantitative OCT results, we performed a PubMed search for the terms "quantitative" and "optical coherence tomography" from 2015 to 2017. Corresponding authors of the identified publications were invited to provide feedback on the initial APOSTEL recommendations via online surveys following the principle of a modified Delphi method. The results were evaluated and discussed by a panel of experts and changes to the initial recommendations were proposed. A final survey was recirculated among the corresponding authors to obtain a majority vote on the proposed changes. RESULTS A total of 116 authors participated in the surveys, resulting in 15 suggestions, of which 12 were finally accepted and incorporated into an updated 9-point checklist. We harmonized the nomenclature of the outer retinal layers, added the exact area of measurement to the description of volume scans, and suggested reporting device-specific features. We advised to address potential bias in manual segmentation or manual correction of segmentation errors. References to specific reporting guidelines and room light conditions were removed. The participants' consensus with the recommendations increased from 80% for the previous APOSTEL version to greater than 90%. CONCLUSIONS The modified Delphi method resulted in an expert-led guideline (evidence Class III; Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations [GRADE] criteria) concerning study protocol, acquisition device, acquisition settings, scanning protocol, funduscopic imaging, postacquisition data selection, postacquisition analysis, nomenclature and abbreviations, and statistical approach. It will be essential to update these recommendations to new research and practices regularly

Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the western United States

Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration. © 2023 the Author(s)

Pharmacokinetic aspects of retinal drug delivery

Drug delivery to the posterior eye segment is an important challenge in ophthalmology, because many diseases affect the retina and choroid leading to impaired vision or blindness. Currently, intravitreal injections are the method of choice to administer drugs to the retina, but this approach is applicable only in selected cases (e.g. anti-VEGF antibodies and soluble receptors). There are two basic approaches that can be adopted to improve retinal drug delivery: prolonged and/or retina targeted delivery of intravitreal drugs and use of other routes of drug administration, such as periocular, suprachoroidal, sub-retinal, systemic, or topical. Properties of the administration route, drug and delivery system determine the efficacy and safety of these approaches. Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic factors determine the required dosing rates and doses that are needed for drug action. In addition, tolerability factors limit the use of many materials in ocular drug delivery. This review article provides a critical discussion of retinal drug delivery, particularly from the pharmacokinetic point of view. This article does not include an extensive review of drug delivery technologies, because they have already been reviewed several times recently. Instead, we aim to provide a systematic and quantitative view on the pharmacokinetic factors in drug delivery to the posterior eye segment. This review is based on the literature and unpublished data from the authors' laboratory.Peer reviewe

Constraints on the cosmic expansion history from GWTC-3

We use 47 gravitational-wave sources from the Third LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3) to estimate the Hubble parameter $H(z)$, including its current value, the Hubble constant $H_0$. Each gravitational-wave (GW) signal provides the luminosity distance to the source and we estimate the corresponding redshift using two methods: the redshifted masses and a galaxy catalog. Using the binary black hole (BBH) redshifted masses, we simultaneously infer the source mass distribution and $H(z)$. The source mass distribution displays a peak around $34\, {\rm M_\odot}$, followed by a drop-off. Assuming this mass scale does not evolve with redshift results in a $H(z)$ measurement, yielding $H_0=68^{+12}_{-7} {\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ ($68\%$ credible interval) when combined with the $H_0$ measurement from GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart. This represents an improvement of 17% with respect to the $H_0$ estimate from GWTC-1. The second method associates each GW event with its probable host galaxy in the catalog GLADE+, statistically marginalizing over the redshifts of each event's potential hosts. Assuming a fixed BBH population, we estimate a value of $H_0=68^{+8}_{-6} {\rm km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ with the galaxy catalog method, an improvement of 42% with respect to our GWTC-1 result and 20% with respect to recent $H_0$ studies using GWTC-2 events. However, we show that this result is strongly impacted by assumptions about the BBH source mass distribution; the only event which is not strongly impacted by such assumptions (and is thus informative about $H_0$) is the well-localized event GW190814

Search for Eccentric Black Hole Coalescences during the Third Observing Run of LIGO and Virgo

Despite the growing number of confident binary black hole coalescences observed through gravitational waves so far, the astrophysical origin of these binaries remains uncertain. Orbital eccentricity is one of the clearest tracers of binary formation channels. Identifying binary eccentricity, however, remains challenging due to the limited availability of gravitational waveforms that include effects of eccentricity. Here, we present observational results for a waveform-independent search sensitive to eccentric black hole coalescences, covering the third observing run (O3) of the LIGO and Virgo detectors. We identified no new high-significance candidates beyond those that were already identified with searches focusing on quasi-circular binaries. We determine the sensitivity of our search to high-mass (total mass $M>70$ $M_\odot$) binaries covering eccentricities up to 0.3 at 15 Hz orbital frequency, and use this to compare model predictions to search results. Assuming all detections are indeed quasi-circular, for our fiducial population model, we place an upper limit for the merger rate density of high-mass binaries with eccentricities $0 < e \leq 0.3$ at $0.33$ Gpc$^{-3}$ yr$^{-1}$ at 90\% confidence level.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figure