The Sensitivity of Export Quantities to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade

This paper adds to the literature that suggests that exports become less sensitive to exchange rate movements under certain circumstances. Focusing on the industry-specific sensitivity of export quantities to exchange rates in the context of intra-industry trade (IIT), this paper theoretically and empirically investigates this relationship. The model presented shows that the extent of bilateral IIT is higher the lower the elasticity of substitution between differentiated products and/or the smaller the gap in production costs between two countries. The empirical analysis investigates cross-country industry-panels for the bilateral trade of eight East Asian countries, Japan, and the United States with the EU, Asia, Japan, and North America. The results confirm that the sensitivity of export quantities to exchange rates declines as the extent of IIT increases. The policy implication of the results is that exchange rate revaluations become a less powerful tool to redress trade imbalances when substantial IIT exists.trade, exchange rates, intra-industry trade, product differentiation

Some integrability conditions for almost K\"ahler manifolds

Among other results, a compact almost K\"ahler manifold is proved to be K\"ahler if the Ricci tensor is semi-negative and its length coincides with that of the star Ricci tensor or if the Ricci tensor is semi-positive and its first order covariant derivatives are Hermitian. Moreover, it is shown that there are no compact almost K\"ahler manifolds with harmonic Weyl tensor and non-parallel semi-positive Ricci tensor. Stronger results are obtained in dimension 4.Comment: Latex2e, 13 page

The Influence of Intra-Industry Trade on Export Sensitivity to Exchange Rates

This paper adds to the literature that suggests that exports become less sensitive to exchange rate movements under certain circumstances. Focusing on the industry-specific sensitivity of export quantities to exchange rates in the context of intra-industry trade (IIT), this paper theoretically and empirically investigates this relationship. It is assumed that more IIT implies a smaller elasticity of substitution among differentiated products and vice versa. The model presented suggests that the gap in production costs has an influence on IIT as well. The empirical analysis investigates six cross-country industry-panels for the bilateral trade of eight East Asian countries, Japan, and the United States with the EU, Asia, Japan, and North America. The results confirm that export sensitivity to exchange rates declines as the extent of IIT increases. The policy implication of the results is that exchange rate revaluations become a less powerful tool to redress trade imbalances when substantial IIT exists.Trade, Exchange rates, Intra-industry trade

Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden with Endogenous Fertility

This paper studies a possibility of efficiency improvement by child benefit programs in an overlapping generations economy with endogenous fertility and government debt. We derive conditions for improving an efficiency by child benefit using Representative-Consumer efficiency (RC-efficiency), an efficiency criterion for an endogenous fertility setting developed by Michel and Wigniolle (2007). It is shown that the result crucially depends on the relative amount of accumulated government debt in the economy. It is likely to hold in an economy of developed countries with a low fertility rate. We provide an implication of the results in the real economy.Endogenous fertility; Pareto-efficiency; child benefit; fiscal burden

Public Debt Accumulation and Fiscal Consolidation

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between interest rates on government bonds (GB) and fiscal consolidation rule by using an overlapping generation model with endogenous and stochastic growth settings. Our key findings are summarized as follows. First, interest rates of GB may be declining as public debt accumulates relative to private capital, as opposed to the conventional view that buildup of public debt accompanies a rise in interest rates. Second, fiscal consolidation rule plays a key role in determining interest rates in equilibrium. Third, the economy may exhibit discrete changes with interest rates diverging, implying that our observation of relatively low GB interest rates does not assure the continuation of that trend in the future. Fourth, a preventive tax increase to contain public debt at sustainable levels will not gain the political support of existing generations, whose life span is limited. Citizens prefer to shift the ultimate burden of public debt to future generations.Overlapping generation model, interest rate on government bond, fiscal consolidation rule, default risk

A Study on Financial Deficit and Declining Birthrate — From the Viewpoint of “Children as a Social Security Revenue Source” —-

While social security systems in the developed countries including Japan are taking pay-as-you-go system based on the cooperation between generations, the fertility number as a tax base of social security is decreasing and the low fertility tendency is common in the developed countries. And if each generation behaves with considering life-cycle and chooses the fertility level rationally, it is considered that there is a possibility that the existence of coverage for social security by fiscal deficit may affect the fertility to some extent. Hence, in this paper, if regarding children as a tax base of social security, we consider the following analysis; 1) from a macro viewpoint, by constructing a dynamic overlapping generation model, how the coverage for social security by fiscal deficit affects on fertility, 2) from a micro viewpoint, in case that there is no relationship between social security transfer and fertility of each household, how the fertility number in the whole economy affects. As a result, to 1), we get an implication that there is a possibility fiscal deficit may affect negatively on fertility from the time series analysis with using 17 countries panel data. Moreover, to 2), from a micro viewpoint, by simplified Nash equilibrium game, in case that there is no relationship between social security benefit and fertility number, there is a negative impact as compared to a social optimal fertility level. In this paper, it is shown that, if children are regarded as a tax base, in order to avoid the negative relationship, it is necessary to consider the following policies; 1) the coverage for social security by fiscal deficit should be set to zero, 2) and a system such that the payment schedule is depending on the number of household children should be introduced, considering the balance of benefit and burden.Finacial deficit: endogenous fertility: child investment: social security system

Default Risk on Government Bonds, Deflation, and Inflation

This paper analyzes the impact of deflation and inflation on the real interest rates of GBs using an overlapping generations model with the relationship between the real interest rate of GBs and the fiscal consolidation rule. We find that deflation may lower the real interest rate of GBs to the same level of public debt to capital, even if the fiscal consolidation rule is the same, as opposed to the conventional view that the real interest rate of GBs is determined independent of deflation if the Fisher equation holds. Our results are consistent with how the real interest rates of Japanese GBs react in periods of deflation. This paper also addresses the impact of fiscal inflation (i.e., monetizing all parts of the GB’s default using monetary policy). We calculate the expected fiscal inflation when the default rate in the event of fiscal consolidation is raised. The fiscal inflation may be extremely high if the extent of the required tax increase in fiscal consolidation is low. Initial inflation accelerates the expected fiscal inflation, but initial deflation suppresses it.Overlapping generations model, real interest rate, fiscal consolidation rule, default risk, fiscal inflation

Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden: OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility

In this paper, we present an OLG simulation model with endogenous fertility in order to analyze the relationship between child benefit and fiscal burden in Japan. Our simulation results show that expansion of the child benefit will improve the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, our findings show that we cannot expect a significant long-term improvement in welfare solely from implementing a policy of increasing the consumption tax. If both the sustainability of the fiscal budget and the improvement of the welfare of current and future generations are requirements, we will need to promote a strategy consisting of such components as a policy-mix that includes both child benefit expansion and additional fiscal reform, i.e. increasing the consumption tax. Implementation of such a policy-mix could be expected to yield a higher economic level in the welfare of current and future generations than could be expected solely from consumption tax reform.Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; overlapping generations (OLG); child benefit; endogenous fertility

Child Benefit and Fiscal Burden in the Endogenous Fertility Setting

This paper analyzes the possibility of improving the efficiency of child benefit programs in an overlapping generations economy that has endogenous fertility and large government debt levels. We derive the conditions for this improvement using Representative-Consumer and Children-for-Representative-Consumers efficiency criteria in the endogenous fertility setting, as proposed by Michel and Wigniolle (2007). We find that the result crucially depends on the relative amount of accumulated government debt in the economy. When the elasticity of interest rates to child benefit is close to zero and there exists a huge amount of accumulated debt in the economy, financing child benefit programs by issuing debt and using lump-sum tax leads to RC-improvements. This finding is likely to hold in the economies of developed countries that have low fertility rates. We finally provide the implications of these findings on the real economy.Endogenous fertility, Pareto-efficiency, child benefit, fiscal burden

Ability transmission, endogenous fertility, and educational subsidy

In this study, we attempt to investigate how educational subsidy, childcare allowance, and family allowance affect economic growth and income distribution, on the basis of simulation models which incorporate intergenerational ability transmission and endogenous fertility. The simulation results show that financial support for higher education can both increase economic growth and reduce income inequality, especially if the abilities of parent and child are closely correlated. In contrast with educational subsidy, raising childcare allowance or family allowance has limited impacts on growth and income inequality.Ability transmission, endogenous fertility, educational subsidy