Zonificación agroecológica del duraznero, usando sistemas de información geográfica en el Distrito de San Pablo de Pillao, Huánuco

Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. Facultad de Ingeniería Agrícola. Departamento Académico de Ordenamiento Territorial y ConstrucciónLa planificación agrícola en las zonas rurales a traves de la Zonificación Agroecológica ´ (ZAE), es una herramienta útil para la agricultura de precisión y el desarrollo sostenible. ´ Con este propósito, en el distrito de San Pablo de Pillao con un ´ área de 59284.20 ha, se ´ determinaron las áreas ´ óptimas para el duraznero, frutal con un valor estable en el mercado ´ y de mayor rentabilidad en Huánuco. Para aplicar los diversos sub-criterios determinantes ´ en la ZAE (elevación, pendientes, precipitación, temperatura, horas frio, humedad relativa, salinidad, contenido de materia orgánica, acidez del suelo y clase textural), se requirió de técnicas geoestadísticas de los Sistemas de información Geográfica (SIG). Luego, se empleó la metodología del Proceso Analítico Jerarquizado (APH), para determinar los pesos de cada sub-criterio, considerando su Relación de Consistencia (RC) y las opiniones de expertos en árboles frutales. Después, las áreas de la ZAE del duraznero fueron obtenidas al relacionar ´ todos los mapas de sub-criterios con sus pesos respectivos. Finalmente, se determinó que el ´ 3.9 % (2312.16 ha) del área de estudio tiene un nivel de aptitud ´ optimo, 14.36 % (8513.54 ha) ´ aptitud media, 22.02 % (13053.28 ha) aptitud baja y el 59.72 % (35405.23 ha) no es apta para el cultivo del duraznero. Además, la evaluación de la probabilidad de ocurrencia de sequías extremas tiene una probabilidad de ocurrencia menor al 5 % y la existencia de tendencias significativas leves en las series temporales de precipitación y temperatura, indican que la ´ variabilidad climática en la zona de estudio respecto a los rangos de tolerancia climática del duraznero, no afectarían su desarrollo a largo plazo. La aplicación de las metodologías de esta investigación para obtener la ZAE del duraznero, demuestran que con los sub-criterios usados, el distrito de San Pablo de Pillao presenta un alto potencial para la producción del duraznero.Agricultural planning in rural areas through Agroecological Zoning (ZAE) is a useful tool for precision agriculture and sustainable development. For this purpose, in the district of San Pablo de Pillao with an area of 59284.20 ha, the optimal areas for the peach tree were determined, a fruit tree with a stable market value and the highest profitability in Huanuco. ´ To apply the various determining sub-criteria in the ZAE (elevation, slopes, precipitation, temperature, cold hours, relative humidity, salinity, organic matter content, soil acidity and textural class), geostatistical techniques of the Systems of Geographic Information (GIS). Then, the methodology of the Hierarchical Analytical Process (APH) was used to determine the weights of each sub-criterion, considering their Consistency Ratio (CR) and the opinions of experts in fruit trees. Afterwards, the areas of the peach tree ZAE were obtained by relating all the sub-criteria maps with their respective weights. Finally, it was determined that 3.9 % (2312.16 ha) of the study area has an optimal suitability level, 14.36 % (8513.54 ha) medium suitability, 22.02 % (13053.28 ha) low suitability and 59.72 % (35405.23 ha) is not suitable for peach cultivation. In addition, the evaluation of the probability of occurrence of extreme droughts has a probability of occurrence of less than 5 % and the existence of slight significant trends in the time series of precipitation and temperature indicate that the climatic variability in the study area with respect to The ranges of climatic tolerance of the peach tree would not affect its long-term development. The application of the methodologies of this research to obtain the ZAE of the peach tree, show that with the sub-criteria used, the district of San Pablo de Pillao presents a high potential for the production of the peach tree

Estimación de hidrogramas horarios de caudales en la vertiente del pacífico, estudio final

Los hidrogramas de inundación de alta resolución temporal son empleados para el diseño de estructuras hidráulicas, operación de embalses, análisis de máximas avenidas, identificación de riesgos ante movimientos de masa y sistemas de alerta temprana ante inundaciones. Esta información es obtenida normalmente mediante modelizaciones hidrológicas complejas que relacionan la precipitación y la escorrentía. Es esta investigación, se propone un método para combinar un modelo de red neuronal artificial (ANN) para la estimación de caudales pico instantáneos y el método índice de pendiente del hidrograma de volumen unitario (SIUVFH) para la desagregación de caudales promedio diarios en caudales a escala horaria. Este último método se basa en la correlación entre el caudal pico del evento de inundación y el índice de pendiente, obtenido a partir de la diferencia entre el caudal pico diario de inundación y el caudal promedio diario de días previos al pico de inundación. Esta relación determinará la selección del hidrograma unitario de inundación que será reescalado con el volumen del hidrograma diario de inundación, por ello, esta relación será optimizada mediante la obtención del caudal pico del evento de inundación a partir de modelos de redes neuronales artificiales. La construcción del modelo de ANN, requirió de caudales promedio diarios y precipitación promedio areal durante el día pico y días adyacentes a ese día, además de parámetros geomorfológicos de la cuenca hidrográfica. La estructura óptima de ANN se determinó mediante la optimización de Adam, encontrando un alto rendimiento respecto a los métodos empíricos, según el estadístico del coeficiente de determinación de 0.96, respecto a los datos observados de los hidrogramas horarios de referencia y una raíz del error cuadrático medio de 82.3 m3/s para los datos de validación. La aplicación del caudal pico basado en ANN y la desagregación de caudales con el método de SIUVFH nos proporcionó información de caudales horarios desagregados en las 55 unidades hidrográficas de la vertiente del Pacífico

Desarrollo de curvas pluviométricas Intensidad-Duración-Frecuencia (IDF) en Perú

En el presente estudio, se intenta proporcionar un enfoque para derivar curvas intensidad duración-frecuencia (IDF) de precipitación en Perú. En particular, se lleva a cabo un análisis regional de precipitaciones extremas, basado en el método del tipo de índice de inundación, para derivar profundidades totales de tormenta de diferentes periodos de retorno. Luego, dichas profundidades de tormenta se distribuyen en el tiempo de acuerdo con hietogramas sintéticos generados por el método de las curvas de Huff, que proporcionan una representación probabilística de las profundidades de tormenta acumuladas para las correspondientes duraciones de tormenta acumuladas expresadas en forma adimensional. Dada su relativa simplicidad, el procedimiento desarrollado se puede extender fácilmente a lugares sin mediciones. Finalmente, se describe un marco para cuantificar los impactos del cambio climático en función de la magnitud y la frecuencia de los eventos de precipitaciones extremas utilizando extremos de precipitación proyectados multimodelo e históricos corregidos por sesgo. El enfoque evalúa los cambios en las curvas IDF de precipitación y sus límites de incertidumbre

PISCOeo_pm, a reference evapotranspiration gridded database based on FAO Penman-Monteith in Peru

A new FAO Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration gridded dataset is introduced, called PISCOeo_pm. PISCOeo_pm has been developed for the 1981–2016 period at ~1 km (0.01°) spatial resolution for the entire continental Peruvian territory. The framework for the development of PISCOeo_pm is based on previously generated gridded data of meteorological subvariables such as air temperature (maximum and minimum), sunshine duration, dew point temperature, and wind speed. Different steps, i.e., (i) quality control, (ii) gap-filling, (iii) homogenization, and (iv) spatial interpolation, were applied to the subvariables. Based on the results of an independent validation, on average, PISCOeo_pm exhibits better precision than three existing gridded products (CRU_TS, TerraClimate, and ERA5-Land) because it presents a predictive capacity above the average observed using daily and monthly data and has a higher spatial resolution. Therefore, PISCOeo_pm is useful for better understanding the terrestrial water and energy balances in Peru as well as for its application in fields such as climatology, hydrology, and agronomy, among others

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Estimación hidrogramas horarios de inundación mediante métodos de desagregación en la vertiente del Pacífico (28 de abril del 2022)

La presente exposición aborda la problemática de inundaciones con los objetivos de identificar los eventos de inundación, estimar los caudales pico instantáneo y desagregar hidrogramas diarios de inundación, además utiliza la metodología de disponibilidad de información de datos de caudales en la vertiente del Pacífico a escala diaria, horarios de estaciones hidrológicas observadas, descripción de las estaciones hidrológicas en la VP y su distribución geoespacial, producto SONICS V3.0 y PISCOV2.2. Este estudio concluye que la generación de hidrogramas de inundación con resolución temporal horaria es esencial para diseñar estructuras hidráulicas para la mitigación contra inundaciones, operación de embalses y sistemas de alerta temprana. Asimismo, indica que mediante el modelo ANN para estimar el IPF de los hidrogramas diarios, se obtuvo como resultado de la evaluación estadística de RMSE de 2.4 a 305.3 y valores dePbiasde-0.112 a 0.06 respecto al conjunto de hidrogramas horarios de referencia. Además, denota que el conjunto de datos está enfocado en cuencas hidrográficas con déficit de registros a escala horaria