The role of modelling in the policy decision making process for cancer screening : Example of prostate specific antigen screening

Funding Information: This publication was made possible by Grant Number U01 CA199338 from the National Cancer Institute as part of the Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network, which supported the underlying development of the simulation model utilised. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the National Cancer Institute.Peer reviewe

The comparative effectiveness of mpMRI and MRI-guided biopsy vs regular biopsy in a population-based PSA testing: a modeling study

The benefit of prostate cancer screening is counterbalanced by the risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. The use of a multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) test after a positive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test followed by magnetic resona

Text Messages With Financial Incentives for Men With Obesity : A Randomized Clinical Trial

Peer reviewe

Text messages with financial incentives for men with obesity. A randomized clinical trial

Importance: Effective weight loss interventions are needed for men with obesity. Objective : To determine whether an intervention that combined text messaging with financial incentives attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group and whether an intervention of text messaging alone attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group. Design, Setting, and Participants: An assessor-blinded randomized clinical trial conducted in Belfast, Bristol, and Glasgow areas in the UK. A total of 585 men with body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more were enrolled between July 2021 and May 2022. Final follow-up occurred June 2023. Interventions: Participants were randomly assigned to 12 months of behavioral focused text messages combined with financial incentives (n = 196), 12 months of behavioral focused text messages alone (n= 194), or a waiting list (control group; n= 195). The financial incentive consisted of a monetary reward that was lost if weight loss targets were not met. All participants received weight management information and a pedometer at baseline. Main Outcomes and Measures: The 2 primary comparisons were the 12-month comparison of within-participant weight change between the text messaging with financial incentive group and the control group and the comparison between the text messaging alone group and the control group (minimum clinically important difference, 3%). The P value defined for statistical significance was P < .025 for each comparison. Results: Of the 585 men (mean [SD] age, 50.7 [13.3] years; mean weight, 118.5 [19.9] kg; mean BMI, 37.7 [5.7]; 525 [90%] White), 227 (39%) lived in postal code areas with lower socioeconomic status, and 426 (73%) completed the 12-month follow-up. At the 12-month follow-up, compared with the control group, the mean percent weight change was significantly greater in the text messaging with financial incentive group (mean difference, −3.2%; 97.5% CI, −4.6% to −1.9%; P < .001) but was not significantly greater in the text messaging alone group (mean difference, −1.4%; 97.5% CI, −2.9% to 0.0, P = .05). The mean (SD) weight changes were −5.7 (7.4) kg for the text messaging with financial incentives group, −3.0 (7.5) kg for the text messaging alone group, and −1.5 (6.6) kg for the control group. The 12-month mean (SD) percentage weight changes from baseline were −4.8% (6.1%) for the text messaging with financial incentives group, −2.7% (6.3%) for text messaging alone group, and −1.3% (5.5%) for the control group. Of 366 adverse events reported, the most common were infections (83 [23%]). Of the 23 serious adverse events (6.3%), 12 (52%) occurred in the text messaging with financial incentives group, 5 (22%) in the texts messaging alone group, and 6 (26%) in the control group. None were considered related to participating in a trial group. Conclusion and Relevance: Among men with obesity, an intervention with text messaging with financial incentive significantly improved weight loss compared with a control group, whereas text messaging alone was not significantly better than the control condition. These findings support text messaging combined with financial incentives to attain weight loss in men with obesit

Effect of sitagliptin on cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Data are lacking on the long-term effect on cardiovascular events of adding sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor, to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind study, we assigned 14,671 patients to add either sitagliptin or placebo to their existing therapy. Open-label use of antihyperglycemic therapy was encouraged as required, aimed at reaching individually appropriate glycemic targets in all patients. To determine whether sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo, we used a relative risk of 1.3 as the marginal upper boundary. The primary cardiovascular outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there was a small difference in glycated hemoglobin levels (least-squares mean difference for sitagliptin vs. placebo, -0.29 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.32 to -0.27). Overall, the primary outcome occurred in 839 patients in the sitagliptin group (11.4%; 4.06 per 100 person-years) and 851 patients in the placebo group (11.6%; 4.17 per 100 person-years). Sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.09; P<0.001). Rates of hospitalization for heart failure did not differ between the two groups (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.20; P = 0.98). There were no significant between-group differences in rates of acute pancreatitis (P = 0.07) or pancreatic cancer (P = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease, adding sitagliptin to usual care did not appear to increase the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, hospitalization for heart failure, or other adverse events

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.Peer reviewe

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Cost-effectiveness of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging and MRI-guided biopsy in a population-based prostate cancer screening setting using a micro-simulation model

Background: The introduction of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and MRI-guided biopsy has improved the diagnosis of prostate cancer. However, it remains uncertain whether it is cost-effective, especially in a population-based screening strategy. Methods: We used a micro-simulation model to assess the cost-effectiveness of an MRI-based prostate cancer screening in comparison to the classical prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, at a population level. The test sensitivity parameters for the mpMRI and MRI-guided biopsy, grade misclassification rates, utility estimates, and the unit costs of different interventions were obtained from literature. We assumed the same screening attendance rate and biopsy compliance rate for both strategies. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis, consisting of 1000 model runs, was performed to estimate a mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and assess uncertainty. A €20,000 willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, and a discounting rate of 3.5% was considered in the analysis. Results: The MRI-based screening improved the life-years (LY) and QALYs gained by 3.5 and 3, respectively, in comparison to the classical screening pathway. Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the MRI screening pathway leads to total discounted mean incremental costs of €15,413 (95% confidence interval (CI) of €14,556–€16,272) compared to the classical screening pathway. The corresponding discounted mean incremental QALYs gained was 1.36 (95% CI of 1.31–1.40), resulting in a mean ICER of €11,355 per QALY gained. At a WTP threshold of €20,000, the MRI screening pathway has about 84% chance to be more cost-effective than the classical screening pathway. Conclusions: For triennial screening from age 55–64, incorporation of mpMRI as a reflex test after a positive PSA test result with a subsequent MRI-guided biopsy has a high probability to be more cost-effective as compared with the classical prostate cancer screening pathway

Text Messages With Financial Incentives for Men With Obesity A Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance Effective weight loss interventions are needed for men with obesity.Objective To determine whether an intervention that combined text messaging with financial incentives attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group and whether an intervention of text messaging alone attained significant weight loss at the 12-month follow-up compared with the control group.Design, Setting, and Participants An assessor-blinded randomized clinical trial conducted in Belfast, Bristol, and Glasgow areas in the UK. A total of 585 men with body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more were enrolled between July 2021 and May 2022. Final follow-up occurred June 2023.Interventions Participants were randomly assigned to 12 months of behavioral focused text messages combined with financial incentives (n = 196), 12 months of behavioral focused text messages alone (n= 194), or a waiting list (control group; n= 195). The financial incentive consisted of a monetary reward that was lost if weight loss targets were not met. All participants received weight management information and a pedometer at baseline.Main Outcomes and Measures The 2 primary comparisons were the 12-month comparison of within-participant weight change between the text messaging with financial incentive group and the control group and the comparison between the text messaging alone group and the control group (minimum clinically important difference, 3%). The P value defined for statistical significance was P &lt; .025 for each comparison.Results Of the 585 men (mean [SD] age, 50.7 [13.3] years; mean weight, 118.5 [19.9] kg; mean BMI, 37.7 [5.7]; 525 [90%] White), 227 (39%) lived in postal code areas with lower socioeconomic status, and 426 (73%) completed the 12-month follow-up. At the 12-month follow-up, compared with the control group, the mean percent weight change was significantly greater in the text messaging with financial incentive group (mean difference, −3.2%; 97.5% CI, −4.6% to −1.9%; P &lt; .001) but was not significantly greater in the text messaging alone group (mean difference, −1.4%; 97.5% CI, −2.9% to 0.0, P = .05). The mean (SD) weight changes were −5.7 (7.4) kg for the text messaging with financial incentives group, −3.0 (7.5) kg for the text messaging alone group, and −1.5 (6.6) kg for the control group. The 12-month mean (SD) percentage weight changes from baseline were −4.8% (6.1%) for the text messaging with financial incentives group, −2.7% (6.3%) for text messaging alone group, and −1.3% (5.5%) for the control group. Of 366 adverse events reported, the most common were infections (83 [23%]). Of the 23 serious adverse events (6.3%), 12 (52%) occurred in the text messaging with financial incentives group, 5 (22%) in the texts messaging alone group, and 6 (26%) in the control group. None were considered related to participating in a trial group.Conclusion and Relevance Among men with obesity, an intervention with text messaging with financial incentive significantly improved weight loss compared with a control group, whereas text messaging alone was not significantly better than the control condition. These findings support text messaging combined with financial incentives to attain weight loss in men with obesity.Trial Registration isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN9197489