Model selection with estimated factors and idiosyncratic components

This paper provides consistent information criteria for the selection of forecasting models which use a subset of both the idiosyncratic and common factor components of a big dataset. This hybrid model approach has been explored by recent empirical studies to relax the strictness of pure factor-augmented model approximations, but no formal model selection procedures have been developed. The main difference to previous factor-augmented model selection procedures is that we must account for estimation error in the idiosyncratic component as well as the factors. Our main contribution is to show the conditions required for selection consistency of a class of information criteria which reflect this additional source of estimation error. We show that existing factor-augmented model selection criteria are inconsistent in circumstances where N is of larger order than root-T, where N and T are the cross-section and time series dimensions of the dataset respectively, and that the standard BIC is inconsistent regardless of the relationship between N and T. We therefore propose a new set of information criteria which guarantee selection consistency in the presence of estimated idiosyncratic components. The properties of these new criteria are explored through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The paper concludes with an empirical application to long-horizon exchange rate forecasting using a recently proposed model with country-specific idiosyncratic components from a panel of global exchange rates

Hidden Behind the Wall: West German State Building and the Emergence of the Iron Curtain

It is widely accepted that the inter-German border was constructed by East German authorities to halt the emigration to the west, which had damaged the East German economy and undermined the East German state agencies' power. This article argues that this is an inaccurate understanding, which mistakenly treats perceptions and insights gained from studying the Berlin Wall as representative of the mostly rural border between East and West Germany. It emphasizes crucial transformations of frontier society during the 1950s, highlighting the important role of western as well as eastern policy in shaping them

Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models

We assess the statistical and economic performance of various forecasting models to predict the future values of the iTraxx index. We find that linear models outperform non-linear models out-of-sample. Some trading strategies based on forecasts generated by the linear models deliver positive Sharpe ratios

Possible probe of the QCD odderon singularity through the quasidiffractive eta_c production in gamma-gamma collisions

The reactions gamma-gamma to eta_c eta_c and gamma gamma to eta_c + X are discussed within the three gluon exchange model. We give predictions for the differential cross-sections and discuss feasibility of measuring these processes at LEP2 and TESLA. The total cross-sections were estimated to be approximately equal to 40 fb and 120 fb for gamma-gamma to eta_c eta_c and gamma-gamma to eta_c + X respectively assuming exchange of elementary gluons that corresponds to the odderon with intercept equal to unity. These values can be enhanced by a factor equal to 1.9 and 2.1 for LEP2 and TESLA energies if the odderon intercept is equal to 1.07. The estimate of cross-sections sigma(e^+ e^- to e^+ e^- eta_c eta_c) and sigma (e^+ e^- to e^+ e^- eta_c + X) for untagged e^+ and e^- is also given.Comment: 11 pages, Latex, epsf, 5 eps figures include

Close-to-threshold Meson Production in Hadronic Interactions

Studies of meson production at threshold in the hadron--hadron interaction began in the fifties when sufficient energies of accelerated protons were available. A strong interdependence between developments in accelerator physics, detector performance and theoretical understanding led to a unique vivid field of physics. Early experiments performed with bubble chambers revealed already typical ingredients of threshold studies, which were superseded by more complete meson production investigations at the nucleon beam facilities TRIUMF, LAMPF, PSI, LEAR and SATURNE. Currently, with the advent of the new cooler rings as IUCF, CELSIUS and COSY the field is entering a new domain of precision and the next step of further progress. The analysis of this new data in the short range limit permits a more fundamental consideration and a quantitative comparison of the production processes for different mesons in the few--body final states. The interpretation of the data take advantage of the fact that production reactions close-to-threshold are characterized by only a few degrees of freedom between a well defined combination of initial and exit channels. Deviations from predictions of phase-space controlled one-meson-exchange models are indications of new and exciting physics. Precision data on differential cross sections, isospin and spin observables -- partly but by no means adequately available -- are presently turning up on the horizon. There is work for the next years and excitement of the physics expected. Here we try to give a brief and at the same time comprehensive overview of this field of hadronic threshold production studies.Comment: 100 pages, Review article to be published in Prog. Part. Nucl. Phys. Vol. 49, issue 1 (2002

Precision tau physics

Precise measurements of the lepton properties provide stringent tests of the Standard Model and accurate determinations of its parameters. We overview the present status of tau physics, highlighting the most recent developments, and discuss the prospects for future improvements. The leptonic decays of the tau lepton probe the structure of the weak currents and the universality of their couplings to the W boson. The universality of the leptonic Z couplings has also been tested through Z -> l(+)l(-) decays. The hadronic tau decay modes constitute an ideal tool for studying low-energy effects of the strong interaction in very clean conditions. Accurate determinations of the QCD coupling and the Cabibbo mixing V-us have been obtained with tau data. The large mass of the tau opens the possibility to study many kinematically-allowed exclusive decay modes and extract relevant dynamical information. Violations of flavour and CP conservation laws can also be searched for with tau decays. Related subjects such as μdecays, the electron and muon anomalous magnetic moments, neutrino mixing and B-meson decays into tau leptons are briefly covered. Being one the fermions most strongly coupled to the scalar sector, the tau lepton is playing now a very important role at the LHC as a tool to test the Higgs properties and search for new physics at higher scales

Azimuthal anisotropy of charged jet production in root s(NN)=2.76 TeV Pb-Pb collisions

We present measurements of the azimuthal dependence of charged jet production in central and semi-central root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV Pb-Pb collisions with respect to the second harmonic event plane, quantified as nu(ch)(2) (jet). Jet finding is performed employing the anti-k(T) algorithm with a resolution parameter R = 0.2 using charged tracks from the ALICE tracking system. The contribution of the azimuthal anisotropy of the underlying event is taken into account event-by-event. The remaining (statistical) region-to-region fluctuations are removed on an ensemble basis by unfolding the jet spectra for different event plane orientations independently. Significant non-zero nu(ch)(2) (jet) is observed in semi-central collisions (30-50% centrality) for 20 <p(T)(ch) (jet) <90 GeV/c. The azimuthal dependence of the charged jet production is similar to the dependence observed for jets comprising both charged and neutral fragments, and compatible with measurements of the nu(2) of single charged particles at high p(T). Good agreement between the data and predictions from JEWEL, an event generator simulating parton shower evolution in the presence of a dense QCD medium, is found in semi-central collisions. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).Peer reviewe

Production of He-4 and (4) in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=2.76 TeV at the LHC

Results on the production of He-4 and (4) nuclei in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S = 2.76 TeV in the rapidity range vertical bar y vertical bar <1, using the ALICE detector, are presented in this paper. The rapidity densities corresponding to 0-10% central events are found to be dN/dy4(He) = (0.8 +/- 0.4 (stat) +/- 0.3 (syst)) x 10(-6) and dN/dy4 = (1.1 +/- 0.4 (stat) +/- 0.2 (syst)) x 10(-6), respectively. This is in agreement with the statistical thermal model expectation assuming the same chemical freeze-out temperature (T-chem = 156 MeV) as for light hadrons. The measured ratio of (4)/He-4 is 1.4 +/- 0.8 (stat) +/- 0.5 (syst). (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe