Mixing patterns in networks

We study assortative mixing in networks, the tendency for vertices in networks to be connected to other vertices that are like (or unlike) them in some way. We consider mixing according to discrete characteristics such as language or race in social networks and scalar characteristics such as age. As a special example of the latter we consider mixing according to vertex degree, i.e., according to the number of connections vertices have to other vertices: do gregarious people tend to associate with other gregarious people? We propose a number of measures of assortative mixing appropriate to the various mixing types, and apply them to a variety of real-world networks, showing that assortative mixing is a pervasive phenomenon found in many networks. We also propose several models of assortatively mixed networks, both analytic ones based on generating function methods, and numerical ones based on Monte Carlo graph generation techniques. We use these models to probe the properties of networks as their level of assortativity is varied. In the particular case of mixing by degree, we find strong variation with assortativity in the connectivity of the network and in the resilience of the network to the removal of vertices.Comment: 14 pages, 2 tables, 4 figures, some additions and corrections in this versio

Modern temporal network theory: A colloquium

The power of any kind of network approach lies in the ability to simplify a complex system so that one can better understand its function as a whole. Sometimes it is beneficial, however, to include more information than in a simple graph of only nodes and links. Adding information about times of interactions can make predictions and mechanistic understanding more accurate. The drawback, however, is that there are not so many methods available, partly because temporal networks is a relatively young field, partly because it more difficult to develop such methods compared to for static networks. In this colloquium, we review the methods to analyze and model temporal networks and processes taking place on them, focusing mainly on the last three years. This includes the spreading of infectious disease, opinions, rumors, in social networks; information packets in computer networks; various types of signaling in biology, and more. We also discuss future directions.Comment: Final accepted versio

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national levels of maternal mortality, 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10�54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality and coverage of specific reproductive health-care services as well as assessment of observed versus expected maternal mortality as a function of Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Findings Only ten countries achieved MDG 5, but 122 of 195 countries have already met SDG 3.1. Geographical disparities widened between 1990 and 2015 and, in 2015, 24 countries still had a maternal mortality ratio greater than 400. The proportion of all maternal deaths occurring in the bottom two SDI quintiles, where haemorrhage is the dominant cause of maternal death, increased from roughly 68 in 1990 to more than 80 in 2015. The middle SDI quintile improved the most from 1990 to 2015, but also has the most complicated causal profile. Maternal mortality in the highest SDI quintile is mostly due to other direct maternal disorders, indirect maternal disorders, and abortion, ectopic pregnancy, and/or miscarriage. Historical patterns suggest achievement of SDG 3.1 will require 91 coverage of one antenatal care visit, 78 of four antenatal care visits, 81 of in-facility delivery, and 87 of skilled birth attendance. Interpretation Several challenges to improving reproductive health lie ahead in the SDG era. Countries should establish or renew systems for collection and timely dissemination of health data; expand coverage and improve quality of family planning services, including access to contraception and safe abortion to address high adolescent fertility; invest in improving health system capacity, including coverage of routine reproductive health care and of more advanced obstetric care�including EmOC; adapt health systems and data collection systems to monitor and reverse the increase in indirect, other direct, and late maternal deaths, especially in high SDI locations; and examine their own performance with respect to their SDI level, using that information to formulate strategies to improve performance and ensure optimum reproductive health of their population. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Another Stab at primordial lead

Conference Information: 73rd Annual Meeting of the Meteoritical-Society New York, NY, JUL 26-30, 2010 Meteorit SocInternational audienc

Short-term survival of ammonites in New Jersey after the end-Cretaceous bolide impact

A section containing the Cretaceous/Paleogene (= Cretaceous/Tertiary) boundary in Monmouth County, New Jersey, preserves a record of ammonites extending from the end of the Cretaceous into possibly the beginning of the Danian. The section includes the upper part of the Tinton Formation and lower part of the Hornerstown Formation. The top of the Tinton Formation is represented by a richly fossiliferous unit (the Pinna Layer) that contains many bivalves in life position as well as ammonite jaws preserved inside body chambers. Ammonites include Pachydiscus (Neodesmoceras) mokotibensis, Sphenodiscus lobatus, Eubaculites carinatus, E. latecarinatus, Discoscaphites iris, D. sphaeroidalis, D. minardi, and D. jerseyensis. The Pinna Layer probably represents a relatively short interval of time lasting tens to hundreds of years; it is conformably overlain by the Burrowed Unit, which contains a single fragment of Discoscaphites sp. and several fragments of E. latecarinatus, as well as several isolated specimens of ammonite jaws including two of Eubaculites. Examination of the mode of preservation of the ammonites and jaws suggests that they were fossilized during deposition of the Burrowed Unit and were not reworked from older deposits. Based on the ammonites and dinoflagellates in the Pinna Layer and the Burrowed Unit, these strata traditionally would be assigned to the uppermost Maastrichtian, corresponding to calcareous nannofossil Subzone CC26b. However, a weak iridium anomaly (500–600 pg/g) is present at the base of the Pinna Layer, which presumably represents the record of the bolide impact. Correlation with the iridium layer at the Global Stratotype Section and Point at El Kef, Tunisia, would, therefore, imply that these assemblages are actually Danian, provided that the iridium anomaly is in place and the ammonites and dinoflagellates are not reworked. If the iridium anomaly is in place, or even if it has migrated downward from the top of the Pinna Layer, the ammonites would have survived the impact at this site for a brief interval of time lasting from a few days to hundreds of years