Mean-Payoff Optimization in Continuous-Time Markov Chains with Parametric Alarms

Continuous-time Markov chains with alarms (ACTMCs) allow for alarm events that can be non-exponentially distributed. Within parametric ACTMCs, the parameters of alarm-event distributions are not given explicitly and can be subject of parameter synthesis. An algorithm solving the $\varepsilon$-optimal parameter synthesis problem for parametric ACTMCs with long-run average optimization objectives is presented. Our approach is based on reduction of the problem to finding long-run average optimal strategies in semi-Markov decision processes (semi-MDPs) and sufficient discretization of parameter (i.e., action) space. Since the set of actions in the discretized semi-MDP can be very large, a straightforward approach based on explicit action-space construction fails to solve even simple instances of the problem. The presented algorithm uses an enhanced policy iteration on symbolic representations of the action space. The soundness of the algorithm is established for parametric ACTMCs with alarm-event distributions satisfying four mild assumptions that are shown to hold for uniform, Dirac and Weibull distributions in particular, but are satisfied for many other distributions as well. An experimental implementation shows that the symbolic technique substantially improves the efficiency of the synthesis algorithm and allows to solve instances of realistic size.Comment: This article is a full version of a paper accepted to the Conference on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTems (QEST) 201

Phylogenetic Resolution and Quantifying the Phylogenetic Diversity and Dispersion of Communities

Conservation biologists and community ecologists have increasingly begun to quantify the phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic dispersion in species assemblages. In some instances, the phylogenetic trees used for such analyses are fully bifurcating, but in many cases the phylogenies being used contain unresolved nodes (i.e. polytomies). The lack of phylogenetic resolution in such studies, while certainly not preferred, is likely to continue particularly for those analyzing diverse communities and datasets with hundreds to thousands of taxa. Thus it is imperative that we quantify potential biases and losses of statistical power in studies that use phylogenetic trees that are not completely resolved. The present study is designed to meet both of these goals by quantifying the phylogenetic diversity and dispersion of simulated communities using resolved and gradually ‘unresolved’ phylogenies. The results show that: (i) measures of community phylogenetic diversity and dispersion are generally more sensitive to loss of resolution basally in the phylogeny and less sensitive to loss of resolution terminally; and (ii) the loss of phylogenetic resolution generally causes false negative results rather than false positives

Phylodynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus O/PanAsia in Vietnam 2010-2014

© 2017 The Author(s). Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is endemic in Vietnam, a country that plays an important role in livestock trade within Southeast Asia. The large populations of FMDV-susceptible species in Vietnam are important components of food production and of the national livelihood. In this study, we investigated the phylogeny of FMDV O/PanAsia in Vietnam, reconstructing the virus' ancestral host species (pig, cattle or buffalo), clinical stage (subclinical carrier or clinically affected) and geographical location. Phylogenetic divergence time estimation and character state reconstruction analyses suggest that movement of viruses between species differ. While inferred transmissions from cattle to buffalo and pigs and from pigs to cattle are well supported, transmission from buffalo to other species, and from pigs to buffalo may be less frequent. Geographical movements of FMDV O/PanAsia virus appears to occur in all directions within the country, with the South Central Coast and the Northeast regions playing a more important role in FMDV O/PanAsia spread. Genetic selection of variants with changes at specific sites within FMDV VP1 coding region was different depending on host groups analyzed. The overall ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous nucleotide changes was greater in pigs compared to cattle and buffalo, whereas a higher number of individual amino acid sites under positive selection were detected in persistently infected, subclinical animals compared to viruses collected from clinically diseased animals. These results provide novel insights to understand FMDV evolution and its association with viral spread within endemic countries. These findings may support animal health organizations in their endeavor to design animal disease control strategies in response to outbreaks

Streptomyces aridus sp. nov., isolated from a high altitude Atacama Desert soil and emended description of Streptomyces noboritoensis Isono et al. 1957.

A polyphasic study was undertaken to determine the taxonomic status of a Streptomyces strain which had been isolated from a high altitude Atacama Desert soil and shown to have bioactive properties. The strain, isolate H9(T), was found to have chemotaxonomic, cultural and morphological properties that place it in the genus Streptomyces. 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses showed that the isolate forms a distinct branch at the periphery of a well-delineated subclade in the Streptomyces 16S rRNA gene tree together with the type strains of Streptomyces crystallinus, Streptomyces melanogenes and Streptomyces noboritoensis. Multi-locus sequence analysis (MLSA) based on five house-keeping gene alleles showed that isolate H9(T) is closely related to the latter two type strains and to Streptomyces polyantibioticus NRRL B-24448(T). The isolate was distinguished readily from the type strains of S. melanogenes, S. noboritoensis and S. polyantibioticus using a combination of phenotypic properties. Consequently, the isolate is considered to represent a new species of Streptomyces for which the name Streptomyces aridus sp. nov. is proposed; the type strain is H9(T) (=NCIMB 14965(T)=NRRL B65268(T)). In addition, the MLSA and phenotypic data show that the S. melanogenes and S. noboritoensis type strains belong to a single species, it is proposed that S. melanogenes be recognised as a heterotypic synonym of S. noboritoensis for which an emended description is given. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10482-017-0838-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

A Balanced Diet Is Necessary for Proper Entrainment Signals of the Mouse Liver Clock

BACKGROUND:The peripheral circadian clock in mice is entrained not only by light-dark cycles but also by daily restricted feeding schedules. Behavioral and cell culture experiments suggest an increase in glucose level as a factor in such feeding-induced entrainment. For application of feeding-induced entrainment in humans, nutrient content and dietary variations should be considered. PRINCIPAL FINDING:To elucidate the food composition necessary for dietary entrainment, we examined whether complete or partial substitution of dietary nutrients affected phase shifts in liver clocks of mice. Compared with fasting mice or ad libitum fed mice, the liver bioluminescence rhythm advanced by 3-4 h on the middle day in Per2::luciferase knock-in mice that were administered a standard mouse diet, i.e. AIN-93M formula [0.6-0.85 g/10 g mouse BW] (composition: 14% casein, 47% cornstarch, 15% gelatinized cornstarch, 10% sugar, 4% soybean oil, and 10% other [fiber, vitamins, minerals, etc.]), for 2 days. When each nutrient was tested alone (100% nutrient), an insignificant weak phase advance was found to be induced by cornstarch and soybean oil, but almost no phase advance was induced by gelatinized cornstarch, high-amylose cornstarch, glucose, sucrose, or casein. A combination of glucose and casein without oil, vitamin, or fiber caused a significant phase advance. When cornstarch in AIN-93M was substituted with glucose, sucrose, fructose, polydextrose, high-amylose cornstarch, or gelatinized cornstarch, the amplitude of phase advance paralleled the increase in blood glucose concentration. CONCLUSIONS:Our results strongly suggest the following: (1) balanced diets containing carbohydrates/sugars and proteins are good for restricted feeding-induced entrainment of the peripheral circadian clock and (2) a balanced diet that increases blood glucose, but not by sugar alone, is suitable for entrainment. These findings may assist in the development of dietary recommendations for on-board meals served to air travelers and shift workers to reduce jet lag-like symptoms

Conserved Regulation of p53 Network Dosage by MicroRNA–125b Occurs through Evolving miRNA–Target Gene Pairs

MicroRNAs regulate networks of genes to orchestrate cellular functions. MiR-125b, the vertebrate homologue of the Caenorhabditis elegans microRNA lin-4, has been implicated in the regulation of neural and hematopoietic stem cell homeostasis, analogous to how lin-4 regulates stem cells in C. elegans. Depending on the cell context, miR-125b has been proposed to regulate both apoptosis and proliferation. Because the p53 network is a central regulator of both apoptosis and proliferation, the dual roles of miR-125b raise the question of what genes in the p53 network might be regulated by miR-125b. By using a gain- and loss-of-function screen for miR-125b targets in humans, mice, and zebrafish and by validating these targets with the luciferase assay and a novel miRNA pull-down assay, we demonstrate that miR-125b directly represses 20 novel targets in the p53 network. These targets include both apoptosis regulators like Bak1, Igfbp3, Itch, Puma, Prkra, Tp53inp1, Tp53, Zac1, and also cell-cycle regulators like cyclin C, Cdc25c, Cdkn2c, Edn1, Ppp1ca, Sel1l, in the p53 network. We found that, although each miRNA–target pair was seldom conserved, miR-125b regulation of the p53 pathway is conserved at the network level. Our results lead us to propose that miR-125b buffers and fine-tunes p53 network activity by regulating the dose of both proliferative and apoptotic regulators, with implications for tissue stem cell homeostasis and oncogenesis

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults.

BACKGROUND: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. METHODS: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). FINDINGS: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese. INTERPRETATION: The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme

The Genealogical Population Dynamics of HIV-1 in a Large Transmission Chain:Bridging within and among Host Evolutionary Rates

Transmission lies at the interface of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution within and among hosts and separates distinct selective pressures that impose differences in both the mode of diversification and the tempo of evolution. In the absence of comprehensive direct comparative analyses of the evolutionary processes at different biological scales, our understanding of how fast within-host HIV-1 evolutionary rates translate to lower rates at the between host level remains incomplete. Here, we address this by analyzing pol and env data from a large HIV-1 subtype C transmission chain for which both the timing and the direction is known for most transmission events. To this purpose, we develop a new transmission model in a Bayesian genealogical inference framework and demonstrate how to constrain the viral evolutionary history to be compatible with the transmission history while simultaneously inferring the within-host evolutionary and population dynamics. We show that accommodating a transmission bottleneck affords the best fit our data, but the sparse within-host HIV-1 sampling prevents accurate quantification of the concomitant loss in genetic diversity. We draw inference under the transmission model to estimate HIV-1 evolutionary rates among epidemiologically-related patients and demonstrate that they lie in between fast intra-host rates and lower rates among epidemiologically unrelated individuals infected with HIV subtype C. Using a new molecular clock approach, we quantify and find support for a lower evolutionary rate along branches that accommodate a transmission event or branches that represent the entire backbone of transmitted lineages in our transmission history. Finally, we recover the rate differences at the different biological scales for both synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates, which is only compatible with the 'store and retrieve' hypothesis positing that viruses stored early in latently infected cells preferentially transmit or establish new infections upon reactivation.status: publishe

A genetic risk score to personalize prostate cancer screening, applied to population data.

Background: A polygenic hazard score (PHS)—the weighted sum of 54 SNP genotypes—was previously validated for association with clinically significant prostate cancer and for improved prostate cancer screening accuracy. Here, we assess the potential impact of PHS-informed screening. Methods: UK population incidence data (Cancer Research UK) and data from the Cluster Randomized Trial of PSA Testing for Prostate Cancer were combined to estimate age-specific clinically significant prostate cancer incidence (Gleason≥7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥10, or nodal/distant metastases). Using hazard ratios estimated from the ProtecT prostate cancer trial, age-specific incidence rates were calculated for various PHS risk percentiles. Risk-equivalent age—when someone with a given PHS percentile has prostate cancer risk equivalent to an average 50-year-old man (50-years-standard risk)—was derived from PHS and incidence data. Positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was calculated using PHS-adjusted age groups. Results: The expected age at diagnosis of clinically significant prostate cancer differs by 19 years between the 1st and 99th PHS percentiles: men with PHS in the 1st and 99th percentiles reach the 50-years-standard risk level at ages 60 and 41, respectively. PPV of PSA was higher for men with higher PHS-adjusted age. Conclusions: PHS provides individualized estimates of risk-equivalent age for clinically significant prostate cancer. Screening initiation could be adjusted by a man’s PHS. Impact: Personalized genetic risk assessments could inform prostate cancer screening decisions