An analytical approach to the dynamic topology problem

Currently, it is possible to modify (say, hourly) the topology of a data communications network by adding or deleting network links and/or by increasing or decreasing bandwidth on existing links in response to changing traffic loads and/or projected network conditions. The intent of this paper is to study a Markov decision process (MDP) model of the dynamic topology problem (DTP), the problem of activating and/or deleting links, as a function of the current traffic in the network and of the most recent network topology design. We present a decomposition of this model and structural results for the decomposition. The decomposition and structural results enhance the tractability of procedures for determining optimal link control policies. A numerical example is used to illustrate these results.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47986/1/11235_2005_Article_BF02110313.pd

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Dog and cat exposures to drugs of abuse identified by the California animal health and food safety laboratory system 2013–2023

IntroductionWhile known animal exposures to human “drugs of abuse” (DA) were previously considered relatively uncommon in veterinary medicine, the trends are changing. Marijuana and amphetamines are among the 20 toxicants most frequently consulted about with the Pet Poison Helpline. When such exposures occur, they are typically considered emergencies.MethodsThis retrospective study describes confirmed cases of DA exposure in pets from the California Animal Health and Food Safety Laboratory System (CAHFS), 2013–2023.ResultsFifty-seven samples tested positive for DA through liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry analysis (qualitative method). In 75% (43/57) of the DA screen tests, the detected drugs included amphetamine-type stimulants and metabolites (methamphetamine, amphetamine, or both). In 47% (27/57) of cases, a combination of more than one drug group was found. Most cases were diagnosed from a urine specimen. In at least 32% (18/57) of cases, the samples were submitted due to suspicions of animal cruelty, and at least 41% (23/57) of the patients were deceased when the samples were submitted.DiscussionMore studies on the prevalence of illicit drugs in small animals, using confirmatory testing, are warranted to fully understand the significance of this emerging toxicological hazard in veterinary medicine

Renal Lesions in Horses with Oleander (Nerium oleander) Poisoning.

A presumptive postmortem diagnosis of oleander (Nerium oleander) poisoning is made based on the histological observation of cardiomyocyte degeneration and necrosis, which is considered to be a reliable diagnostic marker, and can be confirmed via the detection of oleandrin in tissues or fluids. However, cardiac lesions may not be present in every case, and autolysis can often preclude the identification of subtle changes in the cardiomyocytes. Several studies of experimental oleander poisoning have noted the presence of renal lesions in multiple mammalian species, and case studies of accidental exposure have found similar, although more variably severe, renal abnormalities. Kidney pathology in horses with oleander poisoning has been only briefly mentioned. In this study, we reviewed 21 cases of spontaneous oleander poisoning in horses, evaluated the kidneys microscopically, and compared the renal microscopic lesions with those detected in 10 horses that died or were euthanized due to other causes to assess if histological renal changes could serve as an additional diagnostic marker for oleander poisoning in horses. We found that microscopic renal lesions, principally mild to moderate tubular changes such as hyaline cast formation, neutrophilic casts, epithelial attenuation and necrosis, as well as mineralization and congestion, occur in horses with oleander poisoning. Most of these changes match the descriptions of lesions previously noted in other species, although with less frequency and severity. Similar lesions were found in horses that died spontaneously due to different causes or were euthanized. We concluded that microscopic renal lesions may be detected in horses with oleander poisoning but they cannot be used as a diagnostic marker that allows differentiation from other disease processes or causes of death

Field-grown miR156 transgenic switchgrass reproduction, yield, global gene expression analysis, and bioconfinement

Abstract Background Genetic engineering has been effective in altering cell walls for biofuel production in the bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). However, regulatory issues arising from gene flow may prevent commercialization of engineered switchgrass in the eastern United States where the species is native. Depending on its expression level, microRNA156 (miR156) can reduce, delay, or eliminate flowering, which may serve to decrease transgene flow. In this unique field study of transgenic switchgrass that was permitted to flower, two low (T14 and T35) and two medium (T27 and T37) miR156-overexpressing ‘Alamo’ lines with the transgene under the control of the constitutive maize (Zea mays) ubiquitin 1 promoter, along with nontransgenic control plants, were grown in eastern Tennessee over two seasons. Results miR156 expression was positively associated with decreased and delayed flowering in switchgrass. Line T27 did not flower during the 2-year study. Line T37 did flower, but not all plants produced panicles. Flowering was delayed in T37, resulting in 70.6% fewer flowers than controls during the second field year with commensurate decreased seed yield: 1205 seeds per plant vs. 18,539 produced by each control. These results are notable given that line T37 produced equivalent vegetative aboveground biomass to the controls. miR156 transcript abundance of field-grown plants was congruent with greenhouse results. The five miR156 SQUAMOSA PROMOTER BINDING PROTEIN-LIKE (SPL) target genes had suppressed expression in one or more of the transgenic lines. Line T27, which had the highest miR156 overexpression, showed significant downregulation for all five SPL genes. On the contrary, line T35 had the lowest miR156 overexpression and had no significant change in any of the five SPL genes. Conclusions Because of the research field’s geographical features, this study was the first instance of any genetically engineered trait in switchgrass, in which experimental plants were allowed to flower in the field in the eastern U.S.; USDA-APHIS-BRS regulators allowed open flowering. We found that medium overexpression of miR156, e.g., line T37, resulted in delayed and reduced flowering accompanied by high biomass production. We propose that induced miR156 expression could be further developed as a transgenic switchgrass bioconfinement tool to enable eventual commercialization

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. Findings In 2016, there were 27.08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.30-30.30 million) new cases of TBI and 0.93 million (0.78-1.16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55.50 million (53.40-57.62 million) and of SCI was 27.04 million (24 .98-30 .15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8.4% (95% UI 7.7 to 9.2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0.2% [-2.1 to 2.7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3.6% (1.8 to 5.5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3.6% [-7.4 to 4.0]). TBI caused 8.1 million (95% UI 6. 0-10. 4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9.5 million (6.7-12.4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. Interpretation TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundAccurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation