Modeling box - jenkins applied a prediction of wind speed in the regions of the brazilian northeast for the fins of wind generation

In the present work, a study was carried out to predict monthly average wind speed in regions of the Brazilian Northeast. For this purpose, the Box - Jenkins modeling methodology was applied to the 10 m high wind speed data from January 2010 to December 2013. The forecast in all study locations was for the year 2014 through of the SARIMA model, which predominated in practically all regions, that is, an indication that the ideal forecast model must necessarily be introduced to the seasonal component. The prediction was efficient in some regions, for example, in Aracaju it was possible to find a MAPE error of 4.66%. In the localities of Aracaju and Salvador it is possible to identify that the predicted series tend to have similar behavior to the observed series regarding the similarity of maximum and minimum wind speed. This work could be used as a wind speed prediction tool to study and advance wind generation in several regions, providing decision makers with local wind exploitation, since it will be possible to estimate the wind regime in the future

COVID-19 E LESÃO RENAL: UMA REVISÃO DA LITERATURA

INTRODUÇÃO: A lesão renal na COVID-19 ainda não está totalmente elucidada, mas sabe-se que ela é diversa e multifatorial. Os maiores estudos realizados apontam a prevalência de alguns fatores de risco associados à uma maior propensão para o desenvolvimento da lesão renal. Além disso, tem sido discutida nesse cenário a importância da avaliação e detecção precoce da lesão renal, o que auxiliaria na predição de prognóstico e, ainda, o desfecho clínico durante o tratamento da infecção pelo vírus. MATERIAIS E METÓDOS: O presente estudo trata-se de uma revisão da literatura. Os dados apresentados provêm de artigos científicos publicados entre os anos de 2019 e 2020. A busca de artigos científicos foi realizada nos bancos de dados SCIELO, PUBMED. DISCUSSÃO: Sabe-se que vários são os fatores envolvidos na relação entre COVID-19 e lesão renal, desde danos diretos causados pelo vírus até mecanismos inespecíficos que desencadeiam uma série de prejuízos à saúde. Além disso, quando associado a fatores de risco como idade avançada e hipertensão a infecção pelo coronavírus pode ocasionar complicações renais e aumento da mortalidade. Desse modo, faz-se necessário o desenvolvimento de mecanismos para realização de uma investigação minuciosa do estresse renal causado pelo vírus com o intuito de auxiliar no diagnóstico precoce e na prevenção de quadros mais graves. Ainda assim, a recuperação da função renal é difícil e necessita de um acompanhamento com especialista para monitoramento da sua evolução. CONCLUSÃO: Por mais que diversos artigos tenham sido publicados, ainda se faz necessário o desenvolvimento de maiores estudos que determinem com segurança os mecanismos fisiopatológicos, a detecção precoce da lesão renal e o seu manejo específico

Cenários para a matriz de geração de eletricidade do Ceará em 2050: pt

Based on the worldwide proposition of energy matrix scenarios for 2050, the objective of this article is to present scenarios of electricity generation for Ceará in 2050, showing the participation of sources already used in the state's electric matrix and adding new ones. The article proposes three scenarios: a conservative one, where the present proportion of electricity generation sources of the state is maintained, a transitional one, with 50% of electricity generation from non-renewable sources and the other 50% from renewable sources, and 100% renewable, without the use of fossil or nuclear fuels. Estimates for 2050 in the state are obtained by extrapolating generation data from 2011 to 2017, reaching an estimated 94,775 GWh. In the conservative scenario, it is observed that half of this generation is made by thermoelectric plants and the other half by wind farms. In the transition scenario, dominated by the use of natural gas, the exponential growth of photovoltaic generation stands out. In the 100% renewable scenario, dominated by wind farms, in addition to the similar growth of photovoltaic generation as in the transition scenario, we highlight the use of urban solid waste and solar thermal concentration plants.A partir da proposição de cenários de matrizes energéticas a nível mundial para 2050, o objetivo do presente artigo é apresentar cenários de geração de eletricidade para o estado do Ceará em 2050, mostrando a participação de fontes já usadas na matriz elétrica do estado e acrescentando novas. O artigo propõe três cenários: um conservador, onde é mantida a proporção atual das fontes de geração de eletricidade do estado, um de transição, com 50% da geração de energia elétrica oriunda de fontes não renováveis e os outros 50% provenientes de fontes renováveis, e um 100% renovável, sem o uso de combustíveis fósseis ou nuclear. As estimativas para 2050 no estado são obtidas através de extrapolação de dados de geração de 2011 a 2017, alcançando um valor estimado de 94.775 GWh. No cenário conservador, observa-se que metade dessa geração é realizada por termelétricas e a outra metade por parques eólicos. No cenário de transição, dominado pelo gás natural, destaca-se o crescimento exponencial da geração fotovoltaica. No cenário 100% renovável, dominado por parques eólicos, além do crescimento semelhante da geração fotovoltaica como no cenário de transição, destaca-se a utilização dos resíduos sólidos urbanos e de centrais solar térmicas de concentração

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Educomunicação e suas áreas de intervenção: Novos paradigmas para o diálogo intercultural

oai:omp.abpeducom.org.br:publicationFormat/1O material aqui divulgado representa, em essência, a contribuição do VII Encontro Brasileiro de Educomunicação ao V Global MIL Week, da UNESCO, ocorrido na ECA/USP, entre 3 e 5 de novembro de 2016. Estamos diante de um conjunto de 104 papers executivos, com uma média de entre 7 e 10 páginas, cada um. Com este rico e abundante material, chegamos ao sétimo e-book publicado pela ABPEducom, em seus seis primeiros anos de existência. A especificidade desta obra é a de trazer as “Áreas de Intervenção” do campo da Educomunicação, colocando-as a serviço de uma meta essencial ao agir educomunicativo: o diálogo intercultural, trabalhado na linha do tema geral do evento internacional: Media and Information Literacy: New Paradigms for Intercultural Dialogue

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear understanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5,6,7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8,9,10,11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world's most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepresented in biodiversity databases.13,14,15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may eliminate pieces of the Amazon's biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological communities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple organism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region's vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most neglected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lost

Climate seasonality limits leaf carbon assimilation and wood productivity in tropical forests

The seasonal climate drivers of the carbon cycle in tropical forests remain poorly known, although these forests account for more carbon assimilation and storage than any other terrestrial ecosystem. Based on a unique combination of seasonal pan-tropical data sets from 89 experimental sites (68 include aboveground wood productivity measurements and 35 litter productivity measurements), their associated canopy photosynthetic capacity (enhanced vegetation index, EVI) and climate, we ask how carbon assimilation and aboveground allocation are related to climate seasonality in tropical forests and how they interact in the seasonal carbon cycle. We found that canopy photosynthetic capacity seasonality responds positively to precipitation when rainfall is  < 2000 mm yr⁻¹ (water-limited forests) and to radiation otherwise (light-limited forests). On the other hand, independent of climate limitations, wood productivity and litterfall are driven by seasonal variation in precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. Consequently, light-limited forests present an asynchronism between canopy photosynthetic capacity and wood productivity. First-order control by precipitation likely indicates a decrease in tropical forest productivity in a drier climate in water-limited forest, and in current light-limited forest with future rainfall  < 2000 mm yr⁻¹

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear understanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5,6,7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8,9,10,11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world's most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepresented in biodiversity databases.13,14,15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may eliminate pieces of the Amazon's biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological communities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple organism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region's vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most neglected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lost

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups