Magnitude of unintended pregnancy and its determinants among childbearing age women in low and middle-income countries: evidence from 61 low and middle income countries

BackgroundUnintended pregnancy is one of the most serious health issues in low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), posing significant health, economic, and psychosocial costs to individuals and communities. However, there is limited evidence on the prevalence of unintended pregnancies and their determinants in LMICs. Hence, this study aimed to assess the prevalence of unintended pregnancy and its associated factors among childbearing-age women in LMICs.MethodData for the study were drawn from a recent 61 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in LMICs. A total sample of 187,347 mothers who gave birth in the five years preceding the survey was included. STATA version 16 was used to clean and analyze the data. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression was employed to identify individual and community-level factors of unintended pregnancy in LMICs. In the multivariable analysis, an adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence level was reported to indicate statistical association.ResultsThe pooled magnitude of unintended pregnancy in LMICs was 26.46%% (95% CI: 25.30%, 27.62%), ranging from 19.25%% in Egypt to 61.71% in Bolivia. Working status (AOR =  1.03; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.06), having a husband with no education (AOR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.15), and primary education (AOR =  1.05; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.11), women from male-headed households (AOR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.08), media exposure (AOR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.08), unmet need for contraception (AOR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.08), distance from a health facility (AOR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.06) were significantly associated with unintended pregnancy.ConclusionUnintended pregnancy rates remain high in LMICs. Women whose husband has no education and primary education, women with media exposure, working status, women who live in a household headed by male, women with unmet need for contraception, and women with a big problem of distance to health facilities were variables that were significant predictors of unintended pregnancy. When attempting to minimize unintended pregnancy in LMICs, these factors need to be considered. Furthermore, most of these attempts should be driven by government entities in low and middle-income countries

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Exploring spatial variation in BCG vaccination among children 0–35 months in Ethiopia: spatial analysis of Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016

Objective Tuberculosis is a major public health problem and is the second leading cause of death worldwide. BCG vaccination is a life-saving and important part of standard tuberculosis control measures, particularly in Ethiopia where tuberculosis is endemic. The End Tuberculosis Strategy targets of 2020 have not been achieved. Exploring spatial variations in BCG vaccination among children is vital to designing and monitoring effective intervention programmes. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the spatial variation in BCG vaccination among children in Ethiopia.Design Cross-sectional study design.Setting Ethiopia.Participants Children aged 0–35 months.Primary outcome BCG vaccination coverage.Methods Data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey were used and a total of 4453 children aged 0–35 months were included. Spatial autocorrelation analysis, cluster and outlier analysis, hotspot analysis, spatial interpolation, and spatial scan statistics were carried out to identify geographical risk areas for BCG vaccine utilisation. ArcGIS V.10.6 and SaTScan V.9.6 statistical software were employed to explore spatial pattern and significant hotspot areas for BCG vaccination among children.Results BCG vaccination was spatially clustered in Ethiopia at the regional level (Global Moran’s I=0.516, p<0.001). A total of 51 most likely clusters of low BCG vaccination were identified in the Somali and Afar regions (log-likelihood ratio=136.58, p<0.001). Significant secondary clusters were also identified in North West Gambela, South Amhara, South West Addis Ababa, North East Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s Region, and South West Oromia.Conclusion A low probability of receiving BCG vaccination was found among children in the Somali and Afar regions. Therefore, these areas should be given attention when designing effective immunisation strategies to improve BCG vaccination among children in order to reduce the burden of tuberculosis in Ethiopia

Spatial distribution of delayed initiation of antenatal care visits and associated factors among reproductive age women in Ethiopia: spatial and multilevel analysis of 2019 mini-demographic and health survey

Objectives This study aimed to assess the spatial distribution, wealth-related inequality and determinants for delayed initiation of antenatal care (ANC) visits among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia.Design Cross-sectional study design.Setting Ethiopia.Participants A total of 2924 reproductive-age women who had given birth in the 5 years preceding the survey.Outcome measure Delayed initiation of ANC visits.Results The magnitude of delayed initiation of ANC visits among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia was 62.63% (95% CI 60.86%, 64.37%). Women aged 35–49 (AOR=1.42; 95% CI 1.04, 1.94), being protestant religion followers (AOR=1.43; 95% CI 1.06, 1.94), being in higher wealth index (AOR=0.53; 95% CI 0.41, 0.69), living in rural residence (AOR=1.50; 95% CI 1.02, 2.19) and living in the metropolitan region (AOR=0.45; 95% CI 0.26, 0.77) were significantly associated with delayed initiation of ANC visit. Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR), Somalia, Benishangul Gumuz, Southern Addis Ababa and Gambella regions were hot spot regions for delayed initiation of ANC visits. The SaTScan analysis result identified 107 primary clusters of delayed initiation of ANC visits located in regions of SNNPR, Gambella, Southern Addis Ababa, Eastern Oromia and Benishangul Gumuz.Conclusions Significant spatial clustering of delayed initiation of ANC visits was observed in Ethiopia. More than half of women had delayed initiation of ANC visits in Ethiopia. Women’s age, religion, wealth index, residence and region were significant predictors of delayed initiation of ANC visits. There is a disproportional pro-poor distribution of delayed initiation of ANC visits in Ethiopia. Therefore, interventions should be designed in the hot spot areas where delayed initiation of ANC visits was high to enhance the timely initiation of ANC visits

Spatial distribution and associated factors of severe malnutrition among under-five children in Ethiopia: further analysis of 2019 mini EDHS

Abstract Background Malnutrition is both a significant cause and a result of poverty and deprivation. In developing nations, child malnutrition is still the main public health issue. Severe malnutrition affects every system of the body and leads to medical instability. The assessment of the burden of severe malnutrition is important for ready-to-use therapeutic foods and preparing therapy for these conditions. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence and spatial distribution of severe malnutrition and the factors associated with it. Methods Data from the 2019 Mini-EDHS (Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys) with stratified sampling techniques were used. The data were weighted using sample weight to restore the data's representativeness and provide accurate statistical estimations. A total of 5,006 weighted samples of children under the age of five were used to analyze the study. A multilevel binary logistic regression model was built, and a cutoff P-value of 0.05 was used. The wag staff normalized concentration index and curve as well as spatial analysis were used. Results The prevalence of severe malnutrition practice among under five years children in Ethiopia was 14.89% (95%CI: 13.93%, 15.91%), and ranges from 4.58% in Addis Ababa to 25.81% in the Afar region. Women with secondary and above education status as compared to uneducated [AOR = 0.17; 95%CI;[0.06, 0.48], high community women's education as compared to low [AOR = 0.54; 95%CI; 0.36, 0.78], women from richest household as compared to poorest [AOR = 0.63; 95%CI; 0.26, 0.94] and living in Oromia region as compared to Tigray [AOR = 0.33: 95%CI; 0.15, 0.74] were preventive factors. Whereas children 24–59 months of age as compared to under six months [AOR = 1.62; 95%CI; 1.50, 1.75], and being multiple births as compared to single [AOR = 5.34; 95%CI; 1.36,2 1.01] have significant risk factors for severe malnutrition. There was a pro-poor distribution of severe malnutrition among under-five children in Ethiopia with a concentration index of -0.23 [95%CI: -0.27, -0.19]. Severe malnutrition has significant spatial variation over regions in the country where the entire Afar, Eastern Amhara, Southern, and eastern Tigray regions were severely affected (RR = 1.72, P-value < 0.01). Conclusion and recommendations The prevalence of severe malnutrition in Ethiopia is relatively high as compared to other studies and most of them were severe chronic malnutrition. Having an educated mother/caregiver, and living in a cluster with high community women's education were preventive factors for severe malnutrition in children. Whereas having an unmarried mother/caregiver, old age of the child, plurality of birth, and having double children in the family have a positive association with it. Moreover, it was disproportionately concentrated in poor households (pro-poor distribution). The spatial distribution of childhood severe malnutrition was not random. Regions like Tigray, Afar, Eastern parts of Amhara, and Somalia regions should be considered priority areas for nutritional interventions for reducing severe malnutrition. Equity-focused nutritional interventions could be needed to curb the wealth-related inequalities of childhood severe malnutrition

Spatiotemporal patterns of anemia among lactating mothers in Ethiopia using data from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (2005, 2011 and 2016).

IntroductionMaternal anemia is a worldwide public health problem especially in developing countries including Ethiopia. The burden of anemia among lactating mothers in Ethiopia was higher than those who were neither pregnant nor breastfeeding. To date, there is limited evidence on spatiotemporal patterns of anemia among lactating mothers in the country. Exploring the spatial patterns of maternal anemia is vital to design and monitor effective intervention programs. Therefore this study aimed to explore spatiotemporal patterns of anemia among lactating mothers in Ethiopia over the past one and half-decades.MethodsA total of 11,989 lactating mothers were included from the three consecutive Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys(2005, 2011, and 2016). The trend of anemia over the three surveys was showed. Furthermore, spatial autocorrelation analysis, cluster and outlier analysis, hotspot analysis, spatial interpolation, and spatial scan statistics were carried out to identify geographically risk areas of anemia among lactating mothers in Ethiopia. Finally, the most anemia risk areas were detected consistently by different spatial analytic methods in each survey.ResultsAnemia during lactation had an increasing trend from 2011 to 2016 in all regions of Ethiopia. It was also spatially clustered over three survey periods (Moran's I: 0.102-0.256, PConclusionAnemia during lactation was spatially clustered in Ethiopia. High-risk areas were detected in the eastern part of Ethiopia prominently in the Afar and Somali regions. Therefore, public health intervention activities designed in a targeted approach to impact high-risk populations in those hot spot areas wound be helpful to reduce anemia in Ethiopia

Pooled prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children aged 6-59 months in 13 sub-Saharan African countries: A multilevel analysis using recent malaria indicator surveys.

BackgroundEvery 75 seconds, a child under five dies of malaria. Mainly children, aged between six months and five years, are at the highest risk for malaria. These children lost maternal immunity and did not yet developed specific immunity to the infection. Under the age of five, children bear the highest burden of malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Many individual and community level factors could contribute to malaria prevalence remaining high among under-five children in the region. Thus, this study aimed to assess the pooled prevalence of malaria among children aged 6-59 months and identify potential factors associated with malaria by using recent Malaria Indicator Surveys in 13 SSA countries.MethodsData for this study were drawn from recent 13 Sub-Saharan African countries Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS). A total weighted sample of 60,541 children aged 6-59 months was included. STATA version 14.2 was used to clean, code and analyze the data. Multilevel logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with malaria. Adjusted odds ratio with 95% CI and a P value ResultsThe pooled prevalence of malaria among children aged 6-59 months was found to be 27.41% (95% CI: 17.94%-36.88%). It ranges from 5.04% in Senegal to 62.57% in Sierra Leone. Aged 36-47 months (AOR = 3.54, 95% CI 3.21-3.91), and 48-59 months (AOR = 4.32, 95% CI 3.91-4.77), mothers attended primary education (AOR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.84), richer (AOR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.32-0.39), and richest household (AOR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.14-0.19), number of three and more under-five children (AOR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.26-1.45), improved floor material (AOR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.57-0.73), improved wall material (AOR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.64-0.84), improved roof material (AOR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.51-0.93), insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use (0.56, 95% CI 0.51-0.62), not anemic (AOR = 0.05, 95% CI 0.04-0.06), rural resident (AOR = 2.16, 95% CI 2.06-2.27), high community ITN use (AOR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.24-0.63) and high community poverty (AOR = 2.66, 95% CI 2.53-2.84) were strongly associated with malaria.Conclusions and recommendationsAlmost 3 out of 10 children were infected by malaria in 13 SSA countries. Malaria infection remains one of the main killers of children aged 6-59 months in the SSA. This study revealed that older under-five children living in large families with low incomes in rural areas are most vulnerable to malaria infection. Our results clearly indicate that ITN utilization and improved housing are promising means to effectively prevent malaria infection among children aged 6-59 months. It is therefore important to note that households with low wealth quintiles and rural residents should be prioritized in any mass distribution of ITNs. This has to be accompanied by education using mass media to enhance community awareness

Pooled prevalence and risk factors of malaria among children aged 6–59 months in 13 sub-Saharan African countries: A multilevel analysis using recent malaria indicator surveys

Background Every 75 seconds, a child under five dies of malaria. Mainly children, aged between six months and five years, are at the highest risk for malaria. These children lost maternal immunity and did not yet developed specific immunity to the infection. Under the age of five, children bear the highest burden of malaria in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Many individual and community level factors could contribute to malaria prevalence remaining high among under-five children in the region. Thus, this study aimed to assess the pooled prevalence of malaria among children aged 6–59 months and identify potential factors associated with malaria by using recent Malaria Indicator Surveys in 13 SSA countries. Methods Data for this study were drawn from recent 13 Sub-Saharan African countries Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS). A total weighted sample of 60,541 children aged 6–59 months was included. STATA version 14.2 was used to clean, code and analyze the data. Multilevel logistic regression was employed to identify factors associated with malaria. Adjusted odds ratio with 95% CI and a P value Results The pooled prevalence of malaria among children aged 6–59 months was found to be 27.41% (95% CI: 17.94%-36.88%). It ranges from 5.04% in Senegal to 62.57% in Sierra Leone. Aged 36–47 months (AOR = 3.54, 95% CI 3.21–3.91), and 48–59 months (AOR = 4.32, 95% CI 3.91–4.77), mothers attended primary education (AOR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.73–0.84), richer (AOR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.32–0.39), and richest household (AOR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.14–0.19), number of three and more under-five children (AOR = 1.35, 95% CI 1.26–1.45), improved floor material (AOR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.57–0.73), improved wall material (AOR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.64–0.84), improved roof material (AOR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.51–0.93), insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) use (0.56, 95% CI 0.51–0.62), not anemic (AOR = 0.05, 95% CI 0.04–0.06), rural resident (AOR = 2.16, 95% CI 2.06–2.27), high community ITN use (AOR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.24–0.63) and high community poverty (AOR = 2.66, 95% CI 2.53–2.84) were strongly associated with malaria. Conclusions and recommendations Almost 3 out of 10 children were infected by malaria in 13 SSA countries. Malaria infection remains one of the main killers of children aged 6–59 months in the SSA. This study revealed that older under-five children living in large families with low incomes in rural areas are most vulnerable to malaria infection. Our results clearly indicate that ITN utilization and improved housing are promising means to effectively prevent malaria infection among children aged 6–59 months. It is therefore important to note that households with low wealth quintiles and rural residents should be prioritized in any mass distribution of ITNs. This has to be accompanied by education using mass media to enhance community awareness