Bob and Kae Andry

Bob and Kae Andry, co-founders of Save Rodman Reservoir, interviewed by Chris Brooks and Clayton Galloway on November 13, 201

Interventions in measles outbreaks: the potential reduction in cases associated with school suspension and vaccination interventions

Background: Measles is resurgent in the US, with more cases in 2019 than any year since 1992. Many of the cases were concentrated in three outbreaks in New York and Washington states, where local governments enacted intervention strategies in an attempt to limit the spread of measles. Regulations differed by location, suggesting guidance on the optimal interventions may be beneficial. Methods: We simulate the daily interactions of the populations of six metropolitan areas of Texas, US, using an agent-based model. The real-life vaccination rates of each school in these metropolitan areas are applied to simulated equivalents. A single case of measles is introduced to the population and the resulting number of cases counted. A range of public health interventions, focused on suspending unvaccinated students and mandatory vaccinations, were simulated during measles outbreaks and the reduction in the number of measles cases, relative to no intervention, recorded. Interventions were simulated only in schools with measles cases and in all schools in each metropolitan area. Results: Suspending unvaccinated students from school was associated with the greatest reduction in measles cases. In a plausible worst-case outbreak scenario, the number of cases is forecast to reduce by 68-96%. Interventions targeting all schools in a metropolitan area is not found to be associated with fewer measles cases than only targeting schools with measles cases, at 2018 vaccination rates. Targeting all schools also increases the cumulative number of school days missed by suspended students by a factor of 10-100, depending on the metropolitan area, compared to targeting only schools with measles cases. If vaccination rates drop 5% in the schools which are under-vaccinated in 2018, metropolitan area-wide interventions are forecast to be associated with fewer cases than school-specific interventions. Conclusions: Interventions that are quickly implemented and widely followed may reduce the size of measles outbreaks by up 96%. If vaccination rates continue to fall in Texas, metropolitan area-wide interventions should be considered in the event of an outbreak

Sediment accumulation rates in subarctic lakes: Insights into age-depth modeling from 22 dated lake records from the Northwest Territories, Canada

Age-depth modeling using Bayesian statistics requires well-informed prior information about the behavior of sediment accumulation. Here we present average sediment accumulation rates (represented as deposition times, DT, in yr/cm) for lakes in an Arctic setting, and we examine the variability across space (intra- and inter-lake) and time (late Holocene). The dataset includes over 100 radiocarbon dates, primarily on bulk sediment, from 22 sediment cores obtained from 18 lakes spanning the boreal to tundra ecotone gradients in subarctic Canada. There are four to twenty-five radiocarbon dates per core, depending on the length and character of the sediment records. Deposition times were calculated at 100-year intervals from age-depth models constructed using the 'classical' age-depth modeling software Clam. Lakes in boreal settings have the most rapid accumulation (mean DT 20±10 yr/cm), whereas lakes in tundra settings accumulate at moderate (mean DT 70±10 yr/cm) to very slow rates, (>100yr/cm). Many of the age-depth models demonstrate fluctuations in accumulation that coincide with lake evolution and post-glacial climate change. Ten of our sediment cores yielded sediments as old as c. 9000cal BP (BP=years before AD 1950). From between c. 9000cal BP and c. 6000cal BP, sediment accumulation was relatively rapid (DT of 20-60yr/cm). Accumulation slowed between c. 5500 and c. 4000cal BP as vegetation expanded northward in response to warming. A short period of rapid accumulation occurred near 1200cal BP at three lakes. Our research will help inform priors in Bayesian age modeling

The people behind the samples : Biographical features of Past Hunter- Gatherers from KwaZulu-Natal who yielded aDNA

Abstract: Purpose: Skeletons sampled for ancient human DNA analysis are sometimes complete enough to provide information about the lives of the people they represent. We focus on three Later Stone Age skeletons, ca. 2000 B.P., from coastal KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, whose ancient genomes have been sequenced (Schlebusch et al., 2017). Methods: Bioarchaeological approaches are integrated with aDNA information. Results: All skeletons are male. Dental development shows that the boy, with prominent cribra orbitalia, died at age 6–7 years. Two men show cranial and spinal trauma, extensive tooth wear, plus mild cribra orbitalia in one. Conclusions: Dental wear and trauma of the adults are consistent with hunter-gatherer lives. Even partial aDNA evidence contributes to sex determination. Parasitic infection such as schistosomiasis is the best-fit cause for the child’s anemia in this case. Contribution to knowledge: The convergence of genomic and bioarchaeological approaches expands our knowledge of the past lives of a boy and two men whose lives as hunter-gatherers included episodes of trauma and disease. Limitations: The skeletons are incomplete, in variable condition, and from poorly characterized local cultural contexts. Suggestions for further research: Thorough osteobiographic analysis should accompany paleogenomic investigations. Such disciplinary collaboration enriches our understanding of the human past

Possible Resonances in the 12C + 12C Fusion Rate and Superburst Ignition

Observationally inferred superburst ignition depths are shallower than models predict. We address this discrepancy by reexamining the superburst trigger mechanism. We first explore the hypothesis of Kuulkers et al. that exothermic electron captures trigger superbursts. We find that all electron capture reactions are thermally stable in accreting neutron star oceans and thus are not a viable trigger mechanism. Fusion reactions other than 12C + 12C are infeasible as well since the possible reactants either deplete at much shallower depths or have prohibitively large Coulomb barriers. Thus we confirm the proposal of Cumming & Bildsten and Strohmayer & Brown that 12C + 12C triggers superbursts. We then examine the 12C + 12C fusion rate. The reaction cross-section is experimentally unknown at astrophysically relevant energies, but resonances exist in the 12C + 12C system throughout the entire measured energy range. Thus it is likely, and in fact has been predicted, that a resonance exists near the Gamow peak energy ~ 1.5 MeV. For such a hypothetical 1.5 MeV resonance, we derive both a fiducial value and upper limit to the resonance strength and find that such a resonance could decrease the theoretically predicted superburst ignition depth by up to a factor of 4; in this case, observationally inferred superburst ignition depths would accord with model predictions for a range of plausible neutron star parameters. Said differently, such a resonance would decrease the temperature required for unstable 12C ignition at a column depth 10^12 g/cm^2 from 6 x 10^8 K to 5 x 10^8 K. Determining the existence of a strong resonance in the Gamow window requires measurements of the 12C + 12C cross-section down to a center-of-mass energy near 1.5 MeV, which is within reach of the proposed DUSEL facility.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures; minor improvements, results and conclusions unchanged, accepted to Ap

Eutrophication and acidification: Do they induce changes in the dissolvedorganic matter dynamics in the coastal Mediterranean Sea?

Original research paperTwo mesocosms experiments were conducted in winter 2010 and summer 2011 to examine how increased pCO2and/or nutrient concentrations potentially perturbate dissolved organic matter dynamics in natural microbialassemblages. Thefluorescence signals of protein- and humic-like compounds were used as a proxy for labileand non-labile material, respectively, while the evolution of bacterial populations, chlorophylla(Chla) anddissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were used as a proxy for biological activity. For both seasons,the presence of elevated pCO2did not cause any significant change in the DOC dynamics (p-valueb0.05). Theconditions that showed the greatest changes in prokaryote abundances and Chlacontent were those amendedwith nutrients, regardless of the change in pH. The temporal evolution offluorophores and optical indices re-vealed that the degree of humification of the organic molecules and their molecular weight changed significantlyin the nutrient-amended treatment. The generation of protein-like compounds was paired to increases in theprokaryote abundance, being higher in the nutrient-amended tanks than in the control. Different patterns inthe magnitude and direction of the generation of humic-like molecules suggested that these changes dependedon initial microbial populations and the availability of extra nutrient inputs. Based on our results, it is expected that in the future projected coastal scenarios the eutrophication processes will favor the transformations of labile and recalcitrant carbon regardless of changes in pCO2.MINECO, European Union, Generalitat de Catalunya, CSICVersión del editor3,25

Crop Updates 2002 - Farming Systems

This session covers forty one papers from different authors: INTRODUCTION 1. Future Farming Systems session for Crop Updates 2002 Peter Metcalf, FARMING SYSTEMS SUBPROGRAM MANAGER GRAINS PROGRAM Department of Agriculture 2. Perennial pastures in annual cropping systems: Lucerne and beyond, the ‘Big Picture’, Mike Ewing, Deputy CEO CRC for Plant-based Management of Dryland Salinity, Department of Agriculture 3. Perennial pastures in annual cropping systems: lucerne and beyond, Roy Latta and Keith Devenish, Department of Agriculture 4. Establishing Lucerne with a cover crop, Diana Fedorenko1, Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Kim and Neil Diamond2, Stuart McAlpine2, Bill Bowden1, Jessica Johns3, 1Centre for Cropping Systems, Northam, 2Farmer, Buntine, 3Department of Agriculture 5. Overcropping: Chemical suppression of Lucerne, Terry Piper1, Diana Fedorenko1, Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Stuart McAlpine2, Jessica Johns3, 1Centre for Cropping Systems, Northam, 2Farmer, Buntine, 3Department of Agriculture 6. Overcropping: Effect of Lucerne density on crop yield, Diana Fedorenko1, Bill Bowden1, Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Stuart McAlpine2, Terry Piper1,1Centre for Cropping Systems, Department of Agriculture, Northam, 2Farmer, Buntine 7. Residual effect of weed management in the third year of Lucerne on the following wheat crop, Diana Fedorenko1, Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Stuart McAlpine2,Terry Piper1, David Bowran1, Jessica Johns3,1Centre for Cropping Systems, Northam, 2Farmer, Buntine, 3Department of Agriculture 8. Production of Lucerne and serradella in four soil types, Diana Fedorenko1 Clayton Butterly1, Chantelle Butterly1, Robert Beard2 1Centre for Cropping Systems, Department of Agriculture, 2Farmer, Cunderdin 9. The effect of spray topping on newly established Lucerne, Keith Devenish, Agriculture Western Australia 10. Leakage from phase rotations involving Lucerne, Phil Ward, CSIRO Plant Industry 11. Fungal diseases present in Western Australian Lucerne crops, Dominie Wright and Nichole Burges, Department of Agriculture 12. Survey of Western Australian Lucerne stands reveals widespread virus infection, Roger Jones and Danae Harman, Crop Improvement Institute, Department of Agriculture, and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture, University of WA ANNUAL PASTURE SYSTEMS 13. The use of Twist Fungus as a biosecurity measure against Annual Ryegrass Toxicity (ARGT), Greg Shea, GrainGuard Coordinator and George Yan, Biological and Resource Technology 14.Limitations and opportunities for increasing water use by annual crops and pastures, David Tennant1, Phil Ward2and David Hall1 1Department of Agriculture, 2CSIRO, Plant Industries, Floreat Park 15. Developing pasture species mixtures for more productive and sustainable cropping systems – 2001 crop performance, Anyou Liu, Clinton Revell and Candy Hudson, Centre for Cropping Systems, Department of Agriculture 16. Developing pasture species mixtures for more productive and sustainable cropping systems – weed management in regenerating mixtures, Anyou Liu and Clinton Revell, Centre for Cropping Systems, Department of Agriculture 17. Aphid tolerance of annual pasture legumes, Andrew Blake, Natalie Lauritsen, Department of Agriculture 18. Selecting the right variety for phase pasture systems, Keith Devenish, Department of Agriculture 19. Responses of alternative annual pasture and forage legumes to challenge with infectious subterranean clover mottle virus, John Fosu-Nyarko, Roger Jones, Lisa Smith, Mike Jones and Geoff Dwyer, State Agricultural Biotechnology Centre and Centre for Bioinformatics and Biological Computing, Murdoch University, Department of Agriculture, and Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture SOIL AND LAND MANAGEMENT 20. Nutrition in 2002: Decisions to be made as a result of last season, Bill Bowden,Western Australia Department of Agriculture 21. Profitability of deep banding lime, Michael O\u27Connell, Chris Gazey and David Gartner, Department of Agriculture 22. Lime efficiency percentage…the new measure of lime effectiveness for Western Australia, Amanda Miller, Department of Agriculture 23. Boron – should we be worried about it, Richard W. BellA, K. FrostA, Mike WongBand Ross BrennanC ASchool of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, BCSIRO Land and Water, CDepartment of Agriculture 24. Impact of claying and other amelioration on paddock profit, N.J. Blake1, G. McConnell2, D. Patabendige1and N. Venn11Department of Agriculture, 2PlanFarm P/L 25. Raised bed farming in the 2001 growing season, Derk Bakker, Greg Hamilton, Dave Houlbrooke and Cliff Spann, Department of Agriculture 26. Economics of tramline farming systems, Paul Blackwell and Bindi Webb, Department of Agriculture, Stuart McAlpine, Liebe Group. 27. Relay planting from Tramlines to increase water use and productivity os summer crops, Dr Paul Blackwell, Department of Agriculture, Neil and Kim Diamond, Buntine. Liebe Group 28.Evidence-based zone management of paddock variability to improve profits and environmental outcomes, M.T.F. WongA, D. PatabendigeB, G. LyleA and K. WittwerA ACSIRO Land and Water, BDepartment of Agriculture 29. How much soil water is lost over summer in sandy soils? Perry Dolling1, Senthold Asseng2, Ian Fillery2, Phil Ward2and Michael Robertson3 1University of Western Australia/Department of Agriculture Western Australia/CSIRO, 2CSIRO Plant Industry 3CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Indooroopilly, Queensland FARMER DECISION SUPPORT AND ADOPTION 30. Economic comparisons of farming systems for the medium rainfall northern sandplain, No 1, Caroline Peek and David Rogers, Department of Agriculture 31. Sensitivity analysis of farming systems for the medium rainfall northern sandplain No 2, Caroline Peek and David Rogers, Department of Agriculture 32. Transition analysis of farming systems in the medium rainfall northern sandplain. No 3, Caroline Peek and David Rogers, Department of Agriculture 33. Implementing on-farm quality assurance, Peter Portmann, Manager Research and Development, The Grain Pool of Western Australia 34. On-farm research – principles of the ‘Test As You Grow’ kit, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture 35. Broadscale wheat variety comparisons featuring Wyalkatchem, Jeff Russell, Department of Agriculture 36. GrainGuardÔ - A biosecurity plan for the Canola Industry,Greg Shea Department of Agriculture 37. Are Western Australian broadacre farms efficient? Ben Henderson, University of Western Australia, Ross Kingwell, Department of Agriculture and University of Western Australia DISEASE MODELLING WORKSHOP 38. WORKSHOP: Pest and disease forecasts for you! An interactive forum, Tresslyn Walmsley, Jean Galloway, Debbie Thackray, Moin Salam and Art Diggle, Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture and Department of Agriculture 39. Blackspot spread: Disease models are based in reality (Workshop paper 1), JeanGalloway,Department of Agriculture 40. Blackspot spread: Scaling-up field data to simulate ‘Baker’s farm’ (Workshop paper 2), Moin U. Salam, Jean Galloway, Art J. Diggle and William J. MacLeod, Department of Agriculture, Western Australia 41. A decision support system for control of aphids and CMV in lupin crops (Workshop paper 3), Debbie Thackray, Jenny Hawkes and Roger Jones, Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture and Department of Agricultur