Development of a hybrid model to interpolate monthly precipitation maps incorporating the orographic influence

[EN] This paper proposes an interpolation model for monthly rainfall in large areas of complex orography. It has been implemented in the Iberian Peninsula (continental territories of Spain and Portugal), Balearic and Canary Islands covering a territory of almost 600.000km(2). To do this a data set that comprises a total number of 11,822 monthly precipitation series has been created (11,042 provided by the Spanish Meteorological Agency and 780 provided by the National Water Resources Information System of the Portuguese Water Institute). The data set covers the period from October 1940 until September 2005. The interpolation model has been based on the assumption of two different components on monthly precipitation. The first component reflects local and seasonal characteristics and 24 different mean monthly precipitation maps (12) and SDs maps (12) compose it. It considers the varying influence of physiographic variables such as altitude and orientation. The second precipitation component reflects the synoptic pattern that dominated each month of the series and it is composed by series of anomalies of monthly precipitation (780). Anomalies have been interpolated by means of ordinary kriging once local spatial continuity was assumed. Gridded maps of each variable have been developed at 200m resolution following a hybrid methodology that implements two different interpolation techniques. The first technique applies a regression analysis to derive maps depending on altitude and orientation; the second one is a weighting technique to consider the non-linearity of the precipitation/altitude dependence. Cross validation has been applied to estimate the goodness of both techniques. Results show an average annual precipitation of 655mm/year. Although this figure is only 4% less than the estimate of MAGRAMA (2004), regional and local differences are highlighted when the spatial distribution is considered. The model constitutes a comprehensive implementation considering the availability of historical records and the need of avoiding slow calculations in large territories.Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, Grant/Award Number: CGL2014-52571-RÁlvarez-Rodríguez, J.; Llasat, M.; Estrela Monreal, T. (2019). Development of a hybrid model to interpolate monthly precipitation maps incorporating the orographic influence. International Journal of Climatology. 39(10):3962-3975. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6051S396239753910AEMET.2011Atlas Climático Ibérico. (Iberian Climate Atlas) VV.AA. Agencia Estatal de Meteorología. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. ISBN: 978‐84‐7837‐079‐5. Available at:http://www.aemet.es/documentos/es/conocermas/publicaciones/Atlas-climatologico/Atlas.pdf[Accessed 14th February 2018]Álvarez‐Rodríguez J.2011.Estimación de la distribución espacial de la precipitación en zonas montañosas mediante métodos geoestadísticos (Analysis of spatial distribution of precipitation in mountainous areas by means of geostatistical analysis). PhD Thesis. Polytechnic University of Madrid Higher Technical School of Civil EngineeringÁlvarez-Rodríguez, J., Llasat, M. C., & Estrela, T. (2017). Analysis of geographic and orographic influence in Spanish monthly precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 37, 350-362. doi:10.1002/joc.5007Barros, A. P., Kim, G., Williams, E., & Nesbitt, S. W. (2004). Probing orographic controls in the Himalayas during the monsoon using satellite imagery. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 4(1), 29-51. doi:10.5194/nhess-4-29-2004Barstad, I., Grabowski, W. W., & Smolarkiewicz, P. K. (2007). Characteristics of large-scale orographic precipitation: Evaluation of linear model in idealized problems. Journal of Hydrology, 340(1-2), 78-90. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.04.005Creutin, J. D., & Obled, C. (1982). Objective analyses and mapping techniques for rainfall fields: An objective comparison. Water Resources Research, 18(2), 413-431. doi:10.1029/wr018i002p00413Daly, C., Neilson, R. P., & Phillips, D. L. (1994). A Statistical-Topographic Model for Mapping Climatological Precipitation over Mountainous Terrain. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 33(2), 140-158. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)0332.0.co;2Daly, C., Halbleib, M., Smith, J. I., Gibson, W. P., Doggett, M. K., Taylor, G. H., … Pasteris, P. P. (2008). Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology, 28(15), 2031-2064. doi:10.1002/joc.1688Daly, C., Slater, M. E., Roberti, J. A., Laseter, S. H., & Swift, L. W. (2017). High-resolution precipitation mapping in a mountainous watershed: ground truth for evaluating uncertainty in a national precipitation dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 37, 124-137. doi:10.1002/joc.4986Dhar, O. N., & Nandargi, S. (2004). Rainfall distribution over the Arunachal Pradesh Himalayas. Weather, 59(6), 155-157. doi:10.1256/wea.87.03Falivene, O., Cabrera, L., Tolosana-Delgado, R., & Sáez, A. (2010). Interpolation algorithm ranking using cross-validation and the role of smoothing effect. A coal zone example. Computers & Geosciences, 36(4), 512-519. doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2009.09.015Fiering, B., & Jackson, B. (1971). Synthetic Streamflows. Water Resources Monograph. doi:10.1029/wm001Gambolati, G., & Volpi, G. (1979). A conceptual deterministic analysis of the kriging technique in hydrology. Water Resources Research, 15(3), 625-629. doi:10.1029/wr015i003p00625Gómez-Hernández, J. J., Cassiraga, E. F., Guardiola-Albert, C., & Rodríguez, J. Á. (2001). Incorporating Information from a Digital Elevation Model for Improving the Areal Estimation of Rainfall. geoENV III — Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, 67-78. doi:10.1007/978-94-010-0810-5_6Goovaerts, P. (2000). Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall. Journal of Hydrology, 228(1-2), 113-129. doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(00)00144-xHanson, C. L. (1982). DISTRIBUTION AND STOCHASTIC GENERATION OF ANNUAL AND MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ON A MOUNTAINOUS WATERSHED IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 18(5), 875-883. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1982.tb00085.xLloyd, C. D. (2005). Assessing the effect of integrating elevation data into the estimation of monthly precipitation in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology, 308(1-4), 128-150. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.10.026Marquı́nez, J., Lastra, J., & Garcı́a, P. (2003). Estimation models for precipitation in mountainous regions: the use of GIS and multivariate analysis. Journal of Hydrology, 270(1-2), 1-11. doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(02)00110-5Martínez-Cob, A. (1996). Multivariate geostatistical analysis of evapotranspiration and precipitation in mountainous terrain. Journal of Hydrology, 174(1-2), 19-35. doi:10.1016/0022-1694(95)02755-6Mitáš, L., & Mitášová, H. (1988). General variational approach to the interpolation problem. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 16(12), 983-992. doi:10.1016/0898-1221(88)90255-6Naoum, S., & Tsanis, I. K. (2004). Orographic Precipitation Modeling with Multiple Linear Regression. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 9(2), 79-102. doi:10.1061/(asce)1084-0699(2004)9:2(79)Ninyerola, M., Pons, X., & Roure, J. M. (2006). Monthly precipitation mapping of the Iberian Peninsula using spatial interpolation tools implemented in a Geographic Information System. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 89(3-4), 195-209. doi:10.1007/s00704-006-0264-2Pebesma, E. J. (2004). Multivariable geostatistics in S: the gstat package. Computers & Geosciences, 30(7), 683-691. doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2004.03.012Rotunno, R., & Ferretti, R. (2001). Mechanisms of Intense Alpine Rainfall. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58(13), 1732-1749. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2001)0582.0.co;2Singh, P., Ramasastri, K. S., & Kumar, N. (1995). Topographical Influence on Precipitation Distribution in Different Ranges of Western Himalayas. Hydrology Research, 26(4-5), 259-284. doi:10.2166/nh.1995.0015Tabios, G. Q., & Salas, J. D. (1985). A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TECHNIQUES FOR SPATIAL INTERPOLATION OF PRECIPITATION. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 21(3), 365-380. doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.1985.tb00147.xTHIESSEN, A. H. (1911). PRECIPITATION AVERAGES FOR LARGE AREAS. Monthly Weather Review, 39(7), 1082-1089. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1911)392.0.co;2Tobin, C., Nicotina, L., Parlange, M. B., Berne, A., & Rinaldo, A. (2011). Improved interpolation of meteorological forcings for hydrologic applications in a Swiss Alpine region. Journal of Hydrology, 401(1-2), 77-89. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.010Weber, D., & Englund, E. (1992). Evaluation and comparison of spatial interpolators. Mathematical Geology, 24(4), 381-391. doi:10.1007/bf00891270Weber, D. D., & Englund, E. J. (1994). Evaluation and comparison of spatial interpolators II. Mathematical Geology, 26(5), 589-603. doi:10.1007/bf02089243World Climate Programme.1985. World Meteorological Organization. Review of Requirements for Area‐Averaged Precipitation Data Surface‐Based and Space‐Based Estimation Techniques Space and Time Sampling Accurancy and Error; Data Exchange. Boulder Colorado EE.UU. 17–1

Linking Pan-European data to the local scale for decision making for global change and water scarcity within water resources planning and management

[EN] This study focuses on a novel type of methodology which connects Pan-European data to the local scale in the field of water resources management. This methodology is proposed to improve and facilitate the decision making within the planning and management of water resources, taking into account climate change and its expected impacts. Our main point of interest is focused on the assessment of the predictability of extreme events and their possible effects, specifically droughts and water scarcity. Consequently, the Júcar River Basin was selected as the case study, due to the ongoing water scarcity problems and the last drought episodes suffered in the Mediterranean region. In order to study these possible impacts, we developed a modeling chain divided into four steps, they are: i) data collection, ii) analysis of available data, iii) models calibration and iv) climate impact analysis. Over previous steps, we used climate data from 15 different regional climate models (RCMs) belonging to the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) coming from a hydrological model across all of Europe called E-HYPE. The data were bias corrected and used to obtain statistical results of the availability of water resources for the future (horizon 2039) and in form of indicators. This was performed through a hydrological (EVALHID), stochastic (MASHWIN) and risk management (SIMRISK) models, all of which were specifically calibrated for this basin. The results show that the availability of water resources is much more enthusiastic than in the current situation, indicating the possibility that climate change, which was predicted to occur in the future has already happened in the Júcar River Basin. It seems that the so called Effect 80 , an important decrease in water resources for the last three decades, is not well contemplated in the initial data.The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments, suggestions and positive feedback. All remaining errors, however, are solely the responsibility of the authors. We would also like to express our gratitude to the Jucar River Basin Authority - Confederacion Hidrografica del Jucar (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fishery, Food and Environment) for providing data to develop this study. The authors wish to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economyand Competitiveness for its financial support through the NUTEGES project (CGL2012-34978) and ERAS project (CTM2016-77804-P). We also value the support provided by the European Community's Seventh Framework Program in financing the projects ENHANCE (FP7-ENV-2012, 308438), AGUAMOD (Interreg V-B Sudoe 2016), SWICCA (ECMRWF-Copernicus-FA 2015/C3S_441-LOT1/SMHI) and IMPREX (H2020-WATER-2014-2015, 641811).Suárez-Almiñana, S.; Pedro Monzonís, M.; Paredes Arquiola, J.; Andreu Álvarez, J.; Solera Solera, A. (2017). Linking Pan-European data to the local scale for decision making for global change and water scarcity within water resources planning and management. The Science of The Total Environment. 603-604:126-139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.259S126139603-60

Biomass-modulated fire dynamics during the last glacial-interglacial transition at the central pyrenees (Spain)

Understanding long-term fire ecology is essential for current day interpretation of ecosystem fire responses. However palaeoecology of fire is still poorly understood, especially at high-altitude mountain environments, despite the fact that these are fire-sensitive ecosystems and their resilience might be affected by changing fire regimes. We reconstruct wildfire occurrence since the Lateglacial (14.7. cal. ka BP) to the Mid-Holocene (6. cal. ka BP) and investigate the climate-fuel-fire relationships in a sedimentary sequence located at the treeline in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Pollen, macro- and micro-charcoal were analysed for the identification of fire events (FE) in order to detect vegetation post-fire response and to define biomass-fire interactions. mean fire intervals (mfi) reduced since the Lateglacial, peaking at 9-7.7. cal. ka BP while from 7.7 to 6. cal. ka BP no fire is recorded. We hypothesise that Early Holocene maximum summer insolation, as climate forcing, and mesophyte forest expansion, as a fuel-creating factor, were responsible for accelerating fire occurrence in the Central Pyrenees treeline. We also found that fire had long-lasting negative effects on most of the treeline plant communities and that forest contraction from 7.7. cal. ka BP is likely linked to the ecosystem's threshold response to high fire frequencies.This research has been funded by the projects DINAMO (CGL2009-07992) (funding EGPF — grant ref. BES-2010-038593 and MSC), DINAMO2 (CGL2012-33063), ARAFIRE (2012 GA LC 064), GRACCIE-CONSOLIDER (CSD2007-00067). GGR was funded by the Juan de la Cierva Program (grant ref. JCI2009-04345) and JAE-Doc CSIC Program, LLM was supported by a postdoctoral MINT fellowship funded by the Institute for the Environment (Brunel University), AMC is a Ramón y Cajal fellow (ref: RYC-2008-02431), APS holds a grant funded by the Aragon Government (ref. 17030G/5423/480072/14003) and JAE holds a grant funded by the Basque Country Government (BFI-2010-5)

Yield-scaled mitigation of ammonia emission from N fertilization: the Spanish case

Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/125005/mmedia[EN] Synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer and field application of livestock manure are the major sources of ammonia (NH3) volatilization. This N loss may decrease crop productivity and subsequent deposition promotes environmental problems associated with soil acidification and eutrophication. Mitigation measures may have associated side effects such as decreased crop productivity (e.g. if N fertilizer application is reduced), or the release of other reactive N compounds (e.g. N2O emissions if manure is incorporated). Here, we present a novel methodology to provide an integrated assessment of the best strategies to abate NH3 from N applications to crops. Using scenario analyses, we assessed the potential of 11 mitigation measures to reduce NH3 volatilization while accounting for their side effects on crop productivity, N use efficiency (NUE) and N surplus (used as an indicator of potential N losses by denitrification/nitrification and NO3 − leaching/run-off). Spain, including its 48 provinces, was selected as a case study as it is the third major producer of agricultural goods in Europe, and also the European country with the highest increase in NH3 emissions from 1990 to 2011. Mitigation scenarios comprised of individual measures and combinations of strategies were evaluated at a country- and regional level. Compared to the reference situation of standard practices for the year 2008, implementation of the most effective region-specific mitigation strategy led to 63% NH3 mitigation at the country level. Implementation of a single strategy for all regions reduced NH3 by 57% at the highest. Strategies that involved combining mitigation measures produced the largest NH3 abatement in all cases, with an 80% reduction in some regions. Among the strategies analyzed, only suppression of urea application combined with manure incorporation and incorporation of N synthetic fertilizers other than urea showed a fully beneficial situation: yieldscaled NH3 emissions were reduced by 82%, N surplus was reduced by 9%, NUE was increased by 19% and yield was around 98% that of the reference situation. This study shows that the adoption of viable measures may provide an opportunity for countries like Spain to meet the international agreements on NH3 mitigation, while maintaining crop yields and increasing NUEThe authors are grateful to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and the Autonomous Community of Madrid for their economic support through the NEREA project (AGL2012-37815- C05-01, AGL2012-37815-C05-04) and GASPORC (AGL2011-30023-C03) projects. We wish to thank the FIRE (Federation Ile de France de Recherche en Environment, CNRS and UPMC) as well as the Agrisost Project (S2009/AGR-1630). Eduardo Aguilera gratefully acknowledges funding by the 895-2011-1020 project (Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council). This paper has been produced within the context of the REMEDIA network (http://redremedia.wordpress.com).Sanz-Cobeña, A.; Lassaletta, L.; Estellés, F.; Del Prado, A.; Guardia Guardia, G.; Abalos, D.; Aguilera, E.... (2014). Yield-scaled mitigation of ammonia emission from N fertilization: the Spanish case. Environmental Research Letters. 9(12):1-12. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/125005S11291

Explaining the rank order of invasive plants by stakeholder groups

Debates surrounding the use of policies to avoid further spread of invasive species highlight the need to establish priorities in public resource allocations. We explore the consistency or discrepancy among stakeholder groups involved in the risk and control management of invasive species to identify the extent to which different factors influence stakeholder choices of major relevant plant invaders. Based on stakeholder ranking of invasive plants, we explore the reasons behind stakeholders' support for policy management. Data were collected in Galicia, Spain, where a catalogue of prohibited entry and trade of invasive species is currently under debate. We estimate a rank ordered logit model using information from semi-structured interviews conducted with respondents from four stakeholder groups: public administration sector, ornamental sector, research and social groups. The characteristics of plant invaders that provoke stakeholders to rank a species more highly are wide distribution of plant invaders, existence of public control programmes, use and sale of species in the ornamental sector and media coverage. The influence these aspects have in the selection of top-ranked invaders varies across different stakeholder groups and with stakeholders' level of knowledge, awareness and attitudes towards different potential policy measures. A small group of invaders are perceived as top rated by all stakeholder groups

Rationalizing Systems Analysis for the Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies in Complex Human‐Water Systems

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Size-spectra across geographical and bathymetric gradients reveal contrasting resilient mechanisms of recovery between Atlantic and Mediterranean fish communities

En prens

Spatial and temporal variations of trace element distribution in soils and street dust of an industrial town in NW Spain: 15years of study

Extensive spatial and temporal surveys, over 15 years, have been conducted in soil in urban parks and street dusts in one of the most polluted cities in western Europe, Avilés (NW Spain). The first survey was carried out in 1996, and since then monitoring has been undertaken every five years. Whilst the sampling site is a relatively small town, industrial activities (mainly the steel industry and Zn and Al metallurgy) and other less significant urban sources, such as traffic, strongly affect the load of heavy metals in the urban aerosol. Elemental tracers have been used to characterise the influence of these sources on the composition of soil and dust. Although PM10 has decreased over these years as a result of environmental measures undertaken in the city, some of the “industrial” elements still remain in concentrations of concern for example, up to 4.6% and 0.5% of Zn in dust and soil, respectively. Spatial trends in metals such as Zn and Cd clearly reflect sources from the processing industries. The concentrations of these elements across Europe have reduced over time, however the most recent results from Avilés revealed an upward trend in concentration for Zn, Cd, Hg and As. A risk assessment of the soil highlighted As as an element of concern since its cancer risk in adults was more than double the value above which regulatory agencies deem it to be unacceptable. If children were considered to be the receptors, then the risk nearly doubles from this element

Effects of long-term summer deficit irrigation on 'Navelina' citrus trees

[EN] The effects of long-term summer deficitirrigation (RDI) strategies on ‘Navelina’ orange trees (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck) were assessed in a drip-irrigated commercial orchard located in Senyera (Valencia, Spain). Three irrigation treatments were applied during five consecutive years (2007–2011): a controltreatment, without restriction, and two RDI treatments, in which the water reduction was applied during the summer (initial fruit enlargement phase). During the firstthree seasons,the trees under the controltreatment received 110% of the theoretically required irrigation dose (ID), and the RDI treatments received 40% and 60% of the full ID during the deficit period. During the last two years of the study, the control treatment was irrigated at 100% of the ID and the amount of water applied in the RDI treatments was additionally decreased 20% from the reduced ID of the preceding years. The crop’s response to summer deficit irrigation was analysed in relation to tree water status, which was assessed by relying on midday stem water potential (st). The lowest st values were reached, as expected, at the end of the water deficit period and with the most stressed treatment. These minimum st values ranged between −1.6 MPa in 2008 and −2.5 MPa in 2010. In most occasions, the trees under RDI treatments showed a fast hydric recovery and had completely re-hydrated one week after restarting irrigation. Summer RDI treatments did not cause negative effects on either the amount or on the quality ofthe yield ifthe threshold value of st = −2.0 MPa was not surpassed. According to the results, it can be concluded that long-term RDI strategies may be applied successfully on Navelina orange trees during summer without negatively affecting the studied parameters while allowing water savings between 12% and 27%. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1.This experiment was funded by the company Tecnicas Valencianas del Agua S.A. (TECVASA), with financial support from the Conselleria de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentacion de la Generalitat Valenciana for this purpose (DOCV 5493, 19 April 2007, no. exp.: 2007TAHAVAL00018).Gasque, M.; Martí, P.; Granero, B.; González Altozano, P. (2016). Effects of long-term summer deficit irrigation on 'Navelina' citrus trees. Agricultural Water Management. 169:140-147. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2016.02.028S14014716

A multi-regional input-output analysis of ozone precursor emissions embodied in Spanish international trade

Higher levels of ozone in the troposphere is a severe threat to both environment and human health. Many countries are concerned about the effects that critical levels of ozone have on them. Countries pollute to satisfy their domestic and external demand (production perspective) and, at the same time, these countries also generate emissions abroad indirectly via their imports and via their domestic production (consumption perspective). Spain is one of the EU countries with the highest pollution records in the emissions of tropospheric ozone precursor gases. A multiregional input-output model (MRIO) allows us to analyze the total emissions embodied in Spanish international trade in 35 sectors within the EU area and the rest of the world. MRIO models, are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete emissions footprint estimates at the national and supranational level The results show that the most polluting sectors involved in Spanish trade are Agriculture, Basic Metals, Coke and Refined Petroleum Production. Some policy recommendations follow these results; for example, a higher number of environmental regulations focused on the Agricultural sector, such as the introduction of codes of good practices in the use of fertilizers and the promotion of cleaner production technologies might lead to less burden to the environment.Ministerio de economía y competitividad (España) ECO 2014-56399-R. Claves para Desacoplar Crecimiento y Emisiones de Co2 en EspañaCátedra de economía de la energía y del medio ambiente (Universidad de Sevilla)Fundación Roger TornéJunta de Andalucía. SEJ 13