Non-reversible Metropolis-Hastings

The classical Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm can be extended to generate non-reversible Markov chains. This is achieved by means of a modification of the acceptance probability, using the notion of vorticity matrix. The resulting Markov chain is non-reversible. Results from the literature on asymptotic variance, large deviations theory and mixing time are mentioned, and in the case of a large deviations result, adapted, to explain how non-reversible Markov chains have favorable properties in these respects. We provide an application of NRMH in a continuous setting by developing the necessary theory and applying, as first examples, the theory to Gaussian distributions in three and nine dimensions. The empirical autocorrelation and estimated asymptotic variance for NRMH applied to these examples show significant improvement compared to MH with identical stepsize.Comment: in Statistics and Computing, 201

A singular M-matrix perturbed by a nonnegative rank one matrix has positive principal minors; is it D-stable?

The positive stability and D-stability of singular M-matrices, perturbed by (non-trivial) nonnegative rank one perturbations, is investigated. In special cases positive stability or D-stability can be established. In full generality this is not the case, as illustrated by a counterexample. However, matrices of the mentioned form are shown to be P-matrices

A piecewise deterministic scaling limit of Lifted Metropolis-Hastings in the Curie-Weiss model

In Turitsyn, Chertkov, Vucelja (2011) a non-reversible Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method on an augmented state space was introduced, here referred to as Lifted Metropolis-Hastings (LMH). A scaling limit of the magnetization process in the Curie-Weiss model is derived for LMH, as well as for Metropolis-Hastings (MH). The required jump rate in the high (supercritical) temperature regime equals $n^{1/2}$ for LMH, which should be compared to $n$ for MH. At the critical temperature the required jump rate equals $n^{3/4}$ for LMH and $n^{3/2}$ for MH, in agreement with experimental results of Turitsyn, Chertkov, Vucelja (2011). The scaling limit of LMH turns out to be a non-reversible piecewise deterministic exponentially ergodic `zig-zag' Markov process

Dissipativity of the delay semigroup

Under mild conditions a delay semigroup can be transformed into a (generalized) contraction semigroup by modifying the inner product on the (Hilbert) state space into an equivalent inner product. Applications to stability of differential equations with delay and stochastic differential equations with delay are given as examples

Ergodicity of the zigzag process

The zigzag process is a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process which can be used in a MCMC framework to sample from a given target distribution. We prove the convergence of this process to its target under very weak assumptions, and establish a central limit theorem for empirical averages under stronger assumptions on the decay of the target measure. We use the classical "Meyn-Tweedie" approach. The main difficulty turns out to be the proof that the process can indeed reach all the points in the space, even if we consider the minimal switching rates

Simulation of elliptic and hypo-elliptic conditional diffusions

Suppose $X$ is a multidimensional diffusion process. Assume that at time zero the state of $X$ is fully observed, but at time $T>0$ only linear combinations of its components are observed. That is, one only observes the vector $L X_T$ for a given matrix $L$. In this paper we show how samples from the conditioned process can be generated. The main contribution of this paper is to prove that guided proposals, introduced in Schauer et al. (2017), can be used in a unified way for both uniformly and hypo-elliptic diffusions, also when $L$ is not the identity matrix. This is illustrated by excellent performance in two challenging cases: a partially observed twice integrated diffusion with multiple wells and the partially observed FitzHugh-Nagumo model

Linear PDEs and eigenvalue problems corresponding to ergodic stochastic optimization problems on compact manifolds

We consider long term average or `ergodic' optimal control poblems with a special structure: Control is exerted in all directions and the control costs are proportional to the square of the norm of the control field with respect to the metric induced by the noise. The long term stochastic dynamics on the manifold will be completely characterized by the long term density $\rho$ and the long term current density $J$. As such, control problems may be reformulated as variational problems over $\rho$ and $J$. We discuss several optimization problems: the problem in which both $\rho$ and $J$ are varied freely, the problem in which $\rho$ is fixed and the one in which $J$ is fixed. These problems lead to different kinds of operator problems: linear PDEs in the first two cases and a nonlinear PDE in the latter case. These results are obtained through through variational principle using infinite dimensional Lagrange multipliers. In the case where the initial dynamics are reversible we obtain the result that the optimally controlled diffusion is also symmetrizable. The particular case of constraining the dynamics to be reversible of the optimally controlled process leads to a linear eigenvalue problem for the square root of the density process

Beyond peak reservoir storage? A global estimate of declining water storage capacity in large reservoirs

Water storage is an important way to cope with temporal variation in water supply and demand. The storage capacity and the lifetime of water storage reservoirs can be significantly reduced by the inflow of sediments. A global, spatially explicit assessment of reservoir storage loss in conjunction with vulnerability to storage loss has not been done. We estimated the loss in reservoir capacity for a global data set of large reservoirs from 1901 to 2010, using modeled sediment flux data. We use spatially explicit population data sets as a proxy for storage demand and calculate storage capacity for all river basins globally. Simulations suggest that the net reservoir capacity is declining as a result of sedimentation (5% compared to the installed capacity). Combined with increasing need for storage, these losses challenge the sustainable management of reservoir operation and water resources management in many regions. River basins that are most vulnerable include those with a strong seasonal flow pattern and high population growth rates such as the major river basins in India and China. Decreasing storage capacity globally suggests that the role of reservoir water storage in offsetting sea-level rise is likely weakening and may be changing sign