The analysis of relapse-free survival curves: implications for evaluating intensive systemic adjuvant treatment regimens for breast cancer

Results of adjuvant dose intensification studies in patients with localised breast cancer have raised questions regarding the clinical usefulness of this treatment strategy. Here, we develop and fit a natural history model for the time to clinical tumour recurrence as a function of the number of involved lymph nodes, and derive plausible predictions of the effects of dose intensification under various conditions. The time to tumour recurrence is assumed to depend on the residual postoperative micrometastatic burden of tumour, the fractional reduction of residual tumour burden (RTB) by treatment, and the rate of regrowth of the RTB to a clinically detectable size. It is assumed that a proportion of micrometastatic tumours are unresponsive to adjuvant chemotherapy even at maximal dose intensity. Data fitted included the San Antonio Cancer Institute (SACI) database of untreated patients, and CALGB #9082, a study comparing a highly intensive and moderately intensity adjuvant regimen in patients with 10+ positive axillary nodes. The proportion of tumours unresponsive to maximally intensive adjuvant treatment is estimated to be 48% (29–67%). The estimated log kill for intermediate-dose therapy from CALGB #9082 was 6.5 logs, compared with 9 logs or greater for high-dose therapy. The model is consistent with a modest but nonnegligible advantage of dose intensification compared with standard therapies in patients with sensitive tumours who have 10+ positive axillary nodes, and suggests that much of this clinical benefit could be achieved using intermediate levels of treatment intensification. The model further suggests that, in patients with fewer than 10 involved axillary nodes, any advantage of treatment intensification over standard therapy would be much reduced, because in patients with smaller tumour burdens of sensitive tumour, a larger proportion of cures achievable with intensified therapy could be achieved as well with standard therapy

Development of Bacterial Biofilms on Artificial Corals in Comparison to Surface-Associated Microbes of Hard Corals

Numerous studies have demonstrated the differences in bacterial communities associated with corals versus those in their surrounding environment. However, these environmental samples often represent vastly different microbial micro-environments with few studies having looked at the settlement and growth of bacteria on surfaces similar to corals. As a result, it is difficult to determine which bacteria are associated specifically with coral tissue surfaces. In this study, early stages of passive settlement from the water column to artificial coral surfaces (formation of a biofilm) were assessed. Changes in bacterial diversity (16S rRNA gene), were studied on artificially created resin nubbins that were modelled from the skeleton of the reef building coral Acropora muricata. These models were dip-coated in sterile agar, mounted in situ on the reef and followed over time to monitor bacterial community succession. The bacterial community forming the biofilms remained significantly different (R = 0.864 p<0.05) from that of the water column and from the surface mucus layer (SML) of the coral at all times from 30 min to 96 h. The water column was dominated by members of the α-proteobacteria, the developed community on the biofilms dominated by γ-proteobacteria, whereas that within the SML was composed of a more diverse array of groups. Bacterial communities present within the SML do not appear to arise from passive settlement from the water column, but instead appear to have become established through a selection process. This selection process was shown to be dependent on some aspects of the physico-chemical structure of the settlement surface, since agar-coated slides showed distinct communities to coral-shaped surfaces. However, no significant differences were found between different surface coatings, including plain agar and agar enhanced with coral mucus exudates. Therefore future work should consider physico-chemical surface properties as factors governing change in microbial diversity

Metabolic alterations during the growth of tumour spheroids

Solid tumours undergo considerable alterations in their metabolism of nutrients in order to generate sufficient energy and biomass for sustained growth and proliferation. During growth, the tumour microenvironment exerts a number of influences (e.g. hypoxia and acidity) that affect cellular biology and the flux or utilisation of fuels including glucose. The tumour spheroid model was used to characterise the utilisation of glucose and describe alterations to the activity and expression of key glycolytic enzymes during the tissue growth curve. Glucose was avidly consumed and associated with the production of lactate and an acidified medium, confirming the reliance on glycolytic pathways and a diminution of oxidative phosphorylation. The expression levels and activities of hexokinase, phosphofructokinase-1, pyruvate kinase and lactate dehydrogenase in the glycolytic pathway were measured to assess glycolytic capacity. Similar measurements were made for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase, the entry point and regulatory step of the pentose-phosphate pathway (PPP) and for cytosolic malate dehydrogenase, a key link to TCA cycle intermediates. The parameters for these key enzymes were shown to undergo considerable variation during the growth curve of tumour spheroids. In addition, they revealed that the dynamic alterations were influenced by both transcriptional and posttranslational mechanisms

Metabolic alterations during the growth of tumour spheroids

Solid tumours undergo considerable alterations in their metabolism of nutrients in order to generate sufficient energy and biomass for sustained growth and proliferation. During growth, the tumour microenvironment exerts a number of influences (e.g. hypoxia and acidity) that affect cellular biology and the flux or utilisation of fuels including glucose. The tumour spheroid model was used to characterise the utilisation of glucose and describe alterations to the activity and expression of key glycolytic enzymes during the tissue growth curve. Glucose was avidly consumed and associated with the production of lactate and an acidified medium, confirming the reliance on glycolytic pathways and a diminution of oxidative phosphorylation. The expression levels and activities of hexokinase, phosphofructokinase-1, pyruvate kinase and lactate dehydrogenase in the glycolytic pathway were measured to assess glycolytic capacity. Similar measurements were made for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase, the entry point and regulatory step of the pentose-phosphate pathway (PPP) and for cytosolic malate dehydrogenase, a key link to TCA cycle intermediates. The parameters for these key enzymes were shown to undergo considerable variation during the growth curve of tumour spheroids. In addition, they revealed that the dynamic alterations were influenced by both transcriptional and posttranslational mechanisms

Topoisomerase IIα Binding Domains of Adenomatous Polyposis Coli Influence Cell Cycle Progression and Aneuploidy

Truncating mutations in the tumor suppressor gene APC (Adenomatous Polyposis Coli) are thought to initiate the majority of colorectal cancers. The 15- and 20-amino acid repeat regions of APC bind beta-catenin and have been widely studied for their role in the negative regulation of canonical Wnt signaling. However, functions of APC in other important cellular processes, such as cell cycle control or aneuploidy, are only beginning to be studied. Our previous investigation implicated the 15-amino acid repeat region of APC (M2-APC) in the regulation of the G2/M cell cycle transition through interaction with topoisomerase IIalpha (topo IIalpha).We now demonstrate that the 20-amino acid repeat region of APC (M3-APC) also interacts with topo IIalpha in colonic epithelial cells. Expression of M3-APC in cells with full-length endogenous APC causes cell accumulation in G2. However, cells with a mutated topo IIalpha isoform and lacking topo IIbeta did not arrest, suggesting that the cellular consequence of M2- or M3-APC expression depends on functional topoisomerase II. Both purified recombinant M2- and M3-APC significantly enhanced the activity of topo IIalpha. Of note, although M3-APC can bind beta-catenin, the G2 arrest did not correlate with beta-catenin expression or activity, similar to what was seen with M2-APC. More importantly, expression of either M2- or M3-APC also led to increased aneuploidy in cells with full-length endogenous APC but not in cells with truncated endogenous APC that includes the M2-APC region.Together, our data establish that the 20-amino acid repeat region of APC interacts with topo IIalpha to enhance its activity in vitro, and leads to G2 cell cycle accumulation and aneuploidy when expressed in cells containing full-length APC. These findings provide an additional explanation for the aneuploidy associated with many colon cancers that possess truncated APC

Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39.4-40.7) to 50.3% (50.0-50.5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46.3% (95% UI 46.1-46.5) in 2017, compared with 28.7% (28.5-29.0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88.6% (95% UI 87.2-89.7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76.1% (95% UI 71.6-80.7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53.9% (50.6-59.6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Combined measurement of differential and total cross sections in the H → γγ and the H → ZZ* → 4ℓ decay channels at s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combined measurement of differential and inclusive total cross sections of Higgs boson production is performed using 36.1 fb−1 of 13 TeV proton–proton collision data produced by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2015 and 2016. Cross sections are obtained from measured H→γγ and H→ZZ*(→4ℓ event yields, which are combined taking into account detector efficiencies, resolution, acceptances and branching fractions. The total Higgs boson production cross section is measured to be 57.0−5.9 +6.0 (stat.) −3.3 +4.0 (syst.) pb, in agreement with the Standard Model prediction. Differential cross-section measurements are presented for the Higgs boson transverse momentum distribution, Higgs boson rapidity, number of jets produced together with the Higgs boson, and the transverse momentum of the leading jet. The results from the two decay channels are found to be compatible, and their combination agrees with the Standard Model predictions

Search for High-Mass Resonances Decaying to τν in pp Collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

A search for high-mass resonances decaying to τν using proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV produced by the Large Hadron Collider is presented. Only τ-lepton decays with hadrons in the final state are considered. The data were recorded with the ATLAS detector and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No statistically significant excess above the standard model expectation is observed; model-independent upper limits are set on the visible τν production cross section. Heavy W′ bosons with masses less than 3.7 TeV in the sequential standard model and masses less than 2.2–3.8 TeV depending on the coupling in the nonuniversal G(221) model are excluded at the 95% credibility level