Innocent Frauds Meet Goodhart’s Law in Monetary Policy

This paper discusses recent UK monetary policies as instances of Galbraith’s ‘innocent frauds’, including the idea that money is a thing rather than a relationship, the fallacy of composition that what is possible for one bank is possible for all banks, and the belief that the money supply can be controlled by reserves management. The origins of the idea of QE, and its defense when it was applied in Britain, are analysed through this lens. An empirical analysis of the effect of reserves on lending is conducted; we do not find evidence that QE ‘worked’ either by a direct effect on money spending, or through an equity market effect. These findings are placed in a historical context in a comparison with earlier money control experiments in the UK

<i>Gaia</i> Data Release 1. Summary of the astrometric, photometric, and survey properties

Context. At about 1000 days after the launch of Gaia we present the first Gaia data release, Gaia DR1, consisting of astrometry and photometry for over 1 billion sources brighter than magnitude 20.7. Aims. A summary of Gaia DR1 is presented along with illustrations of the scientific quality of the data, followed by a discussion of the limitations due to the preliminary nature of this release. Methods. The raw data collected by Gaia during the first 14 months of the mission have been processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC) and turned into an astrometric and photometric catalogue. Results. Gaia DR1 consists of three components: a primary astrometric data set which contains the positions, parallaxes, and mean proper motions for about 2 million of the brightest stars in common with the HIPPARCOS and Tycho-2 catalogues – a realisation of the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) – and a secondary astrometric data set containing the positions for an additional 1.1 billion sources. The second component is the photometric data set, consisting of mean G-band magnitudes for all sources. The G-band light curves and the characteristics of ∼3000 Cepheid and RR-Lyrae stars, observed at high cadence around the south ecliptic pole, form the third component. For the primary astrometric data set the typical uncertainty is about 0.3 mas for the positions and parallaxes, and about 1 mas yr−1 for the proper motions. A systematic component of ∼0.3 mas should be added to the parallax uncertainties. For the subset of ∼94 000 HIPPARCOS stars in the primary data set, the proper motions are much more precise at about 0.06 mas yr−1. For the secondary astrometric data set, the typical uncertainty of the positions is ∼10 mas. The median uncertainties on the mean G-band magnitudes range from the mmag level to ∼0.03 mag over the magnitude range 5 to 20.7. Conclusions. Gaia DR1 is an important milestone ahead of the next Gaia data release, which will feature five-parameter astrometry for all sources. Extensive validation shows that Gaia DR1 represents a major advance in the mapping of the heavens and the availability of basic stellar data that underpin observational astrophysics. Nevertheless, the very preliminary nature of this first Gaia data release does lead to a number of important limitations to the data quality which should be carefully considered before drawing conclusions from the data

HLA class I and II diversity contributes to the etiologic heterogeneity of non-Hodgkin lymphoma subtypes

A growing number of loci within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region have been implicated in non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) etiology. Here, we test a complementary hypothesis of "heterozygote advantage" regarding the role of HLA and NHL, whereby HLA diversity is beneficial and homozygous HLA loci are associated with increased disease risk. HLA alleles at class I and II loci were imputed from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) using SNP2HLA for 3,617 diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL), 2,686 follicular lymphomas (FL), 2,878 chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphomas (CLL/SLL), 741 marginal zone lymphomas (MZL), and 8,753 controls of European descent. Both DLBCL and MZL risk were elevated with homozygosity at class I HLA-B and -C loci (OR DLBCL = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.06–1.60; OR MZL = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.12–1.89) and class II HLA-DRB1 locus (OR DLBCL = 2.10, 95% CI = 1.24–3.55; OR MZL = 2.10, 95% CI = 0.99–4.45). Increased FL risk was observed with the overall increase in number of homozygous HLA class II loci (P trend &lt; 0.0001, FDR = 0.0005). These results support a role for HLA zygosity in NHL etiology and suggests that distinct immune pathways may underly the etiology of the different NHL subtypes. Significance: HLA gene diversity reduces risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma

The reliability and validity of three non-radiological measures of thoracic kyphosis and their relations to the standing radiological Cobb angle

UnlabelledHyperkyphosis is implicated in a mounting list of negative outcomes, including higher mortality. Hyperkyphosis research is hindered due to difficulties inherent in its measurement. By showing that three clinical measures of kyphosis are suitable for use in large scale, longitudinal, hyperkyphosis studies, we will facilitate much needed research in this field.IntroductionThe objective of this study is to describe the reliability of three non-radiological kyphosis measures (Debrunner kyphosis angle, flexicurve kyphosis index, and flexicurve kyphosis angle) and their validity compared to the Cobb angle and to approximate a Cobb angle from non-radiological kyphosis measures.MethodsWe analyzed data from 113 participants aged ≥ 60 years with kyphosis angle ≥ 40°. Cobb angle was measured on a standing lateral thoracolumbar radiograph using bounds at T4 and T12. Non-radiological measures of kyphosis were made three times by a single rater and a 4th time by a blinded second rater.ResultsIntra- and inter-rater reliabilities for non-radiological assessments were high (intra-class correlations of 0.96 to 0.98) and did not differ from each other. Pearson correlations, estimating validity, ranged from 0.62 to 0.69 and did not differ. The Debrunner angle was close to the Cobb angle, with scaling factor of 1.067 and an offset of 5°. The Flexicurve kyphosis angle had to be scaled by 1.53 to obtain the equivalent Cobb angle. The scaling factor for the Flexicurve kyphosis index to Cobb angle was 315, with an offset of 5°. Compared to the measured Cobb angle, Cobb angles predicted using the non-radiological measures had similar magnitude errors (standard deviations of the differences ranging between 10.24 and 11.26).ConclusionsEach non-radiological measurement had similar reliability and validity. Low cost, ease of use, and robustness to variations in spine contour argue for the Flexicurve in longitudinal kyphosis assessments. The approximate conversion factors provided will permit translation of non-radiological measures to Cobb angles

Blood transcriptomics of drug-na\uefve sporadic Parkinson's disease patients

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a chronic progressive neurodegenerative disorder that is clinically defined in terms of motor symptoms. These are preceded by prodromal non-motor manifestations that prove the systemic nature of the disease. Identifying genes and pathways altered in living patients provide new information on the diagnosis and pathogenesis of sporadic PD. METHODS: Changes in gene expression in the blood of 40 sporadic PD patients and 20 healthy controls ("Discovery set") were analyzed by taking advantage of the Affymetrix platform. Patients were at the onset of motor symptoms and before initiating any pharmacological treatment. Data analysis was performed by applying Ranking-Principal Component Analysis, PUMA and Significance Analysis of Microarrays. Functional annotations were assigned using GO, DAVID, GSEA to unveil significant enriched biological processes in the differentially expressed genes. The expressions of selected genes were validated using RT-qPCR and samples from an independent cohort of 12 patients and controls ("Validation set"). RESULTS: Gene expression profiling of blood samples discriminates PD patients from healthy controls and identifies differentially expressed genes in blood. The majority of these are also present in dopaminergic neurons of the Substantia Nigra, the key site of neurodegeneration. Together with neuronal apoptosis, lymphocyte activation and mitochondrial dysfunction, already found in previous analysis of PD blood and post-mortem brains, we unveiled transcriptome changes enriched in biological terms related to epigenetic modifications including chromatin remodeling and methylation. Candidate transcripts as CBX5, TCF3, MAN1C1 and DOCK10 were validated by RT-qPCR. CONCLUSIONS: Our data support the use of blood transcriptomics to study neurodegenerative diseases. It identifies changes in crucial components of chromatin remodeling and methylation machineries as early events in sporadic PD suggesting epigenetics as target for therapeutic intervention

Gaia Early Data Release 3 Acceleration of the Solar System from Gaia astrometry

Context. Gaia Early Data Release 3 (Gaia EDR3) provides accurate astrometry for about 1.6 million compact (QSO-like) extragalactic sources, 1.2 million of which have the best-quality five-parameter astrometric solutions. Aims. The proper motions of QSO-like sources are used to reveal a systematic pattern due to the acceleration of the solar systembarycentre with respect to the rest frame of the Universe. Apart from being an important scientific result by itself, the acceleration measured in this way is a good quality indicator of the Gaia astrometric solution. Methods. Theeffect of the acceleration was obtained as a part of the general expansion of the vector field of proper motions in vector spherical harmonics (VSH). Various versions of the VSH fit and various subsets of the sources were tried and compared to get the most consistent result and a realistic estimate of its uncertainty. Additional tests with the Gaia astrometric solution were used to get a better idea of the possible systematic errors in the estimate. Results. Our best estimate of the acceleration based on Gaia EDR3 is (2.32 +/- 0.16) x 10(-10) m s(-2) (or 7.33 +/- 0.51 km s(-1) Myr-1) towards alpha = 269.1 degrees +/- 5.4 degrees, delta = -31.6 degrees +/- 4.1 degrees, corresponding to a proper motion amplitude of 5.05 +/- 0.35 mu as yr(-1). This is in good agreement with the acceleration expected from current models of the Galactic gravitational potential. We expect that future Gaia data releases will provide estimates of the acceleration with uncertainties substantially below 0.1 mu as yr(-1).Peer reviewe

Gaia Focused Product Release: A catalogue of sources around quasars to search for strongly lensed quasars

Context. Strongly lensed quasars are fundamental sources for cosmology. The Gaia space mission covers the entire sky with the unprecedented resolution of $0.18$" in the optical, making it an ideal instrument to search for gravitational lenses down to the limiting magnitude of 21. Nevertheless, the previous Gaia Data Releases are known to be incomplete for small angular separations such as those expected for most lenses. Aims. We present the Data Processing and Analysis Consortium GravLens pipeline, which was built to analyse all Gaia detections around quasars and to cluster them into sources, thus producing a catalogue of secondary sources around each quasar. We analysed the resulting catalogue to produce scores that indicate source configurations that are compatible with strongly lensed quasars. Methods. GravLens uses the DBSCAN unsupervised clustering algorithm to detect sources around quasars. The resulting catalogue of multiplets is then analysed with several methods to identify potential gravitational lenses. We developed and applied an outlier scoring method, a comparison between the average BP and RP spectra of the components, and we also used an extremely randomised tree algorithm. These methods produce scores to identify the most probable configurations and to establish a list of lens candidates. Results. We analysed the environment of 3 760 032 quasars. A total of 4 760 920 sources, including the quasars, were found within 6" of the quasar positions. This list is given in the Gaia archive. In 87\% of cases, the quasar remains a single source, and in 501 385 cases neighbouring sources were detected. We propose a list of 381 lensed candidates, of which we identified 49 as the most promising. Beyond these candidates, the associate tables in this Focused Product Release allow the entire community to explore the unique Gaia data for strong lensing studies further.Comment: 35 pages, 60 figures, accepted for publication by Astronomy and Astrophysic

Computing the flow past Vortex Generators: Comparison between RANS Simulations and Experiments

The flow around a wind turbine airfoil equipped with Vortex Generators (VGs) is examined. Predictions from three different Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) solvers with two different turbulence models and two different VG modelling approaches are compared between them and with experimental data. The best results are obtained with the more expensive fully resolved VG approach. The cost efficient BAY model can also provide acceptable results, if grid related numerical diffusion is minimized and only force coefficient polars are considered

A detailed study of the very-high-energy Crab pulsar emission with the LST-1

Context: There are currently three pulsars firmly detected by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs), two of them reaching TeV energies, challenging models of very-high-energy (VHE) emission in pulsars. More precise observations are needed to better characterize pulsar emission at these energies. The LST-1 is the prototype of the Large-Sized Telescope, that will be part of the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO). Its improved performance over previous IACTs makes it well suited for studying pulsars. Aims: To study the Crab pulsar emission with the LST-1, improving and complementing the results from other telescopes. These observations can also be used to characterize the potential of the LST-1 to study other pulsars and detect new ones. Methods: We analyzed a total of $\sim$103 hours of gamma-ray observations of the Crab pulsar conducted with the LST-1 in the period from September 2020 to January 2023. The observations were carried out at zenith angles less than 50 degrees. A new analysis of the Fermi-LAT data was also performed, including $\sim$14 years of observations. Results: The Crab pulsar phaseogram, long-term light-curve, and phase-resolved spectra are reconstructed with the LST-1 from 20 GeV to 450 GeV for P1 and up to 700 GeV for P2. The pulsed emission is detected with a significance of 15.2$σ$. The two characteristic emission peaks of the Crab pulsar are clearly detected (&gt;10$σ$), as well as the so-called bridge emission (5.7$σ$). We find that both peaks are well described by power laws, with spectral indices of $\sim$3.44 and $\sim$3.03 respectively. The joint analysis of Fermi-LAT and LST-1 data shows a good agreement between both instruments in the overlapping energy range. The detailed results obtained in the first observations of the Crab pulsar with LST-1 show the potential that CTAO will have to study this type of sources