Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 120 (2015): 2452–2475, doi:10.1002/2015JF003671.Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Coastal and Marine Geology Program; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Servic

Measurement of the production of a W boson in association with a charm quark in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production of a W boson in association with a single charm quark is studied using 4.6 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√ = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. In events in which a W boson decays to an electron or muon, the charm quark is tagged either by its semileptonic decay to a muon or by the presence of a charmed meson. The integrated and differential cross sections as a function of the pseudorapidity of the lepton from the W-boson decay are measured. Results are compared to the predictions of next-to-leading-order QCD calculations obtained from various parton distribution function parameterisations. The ratio of the strange-to-down sea-quark distributions is determined to be 0.96+0.26−0.30 at Q 2 = 1.9 GeV2, which supports the hypothesis of an SU(3)-symmetric composition of the light-quark sea. Additionally, the cross-section ratio σ(W + +c¯¯)/σ(W − + c) is compared to the predictions obtained using parton distribution function parameterisations with different assumptions about the s−s¯¯¯ quark asymmetry

Measurement of the tt¯ production cross-section as a function of jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum in 7 TeV proton-proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

The tt¯ production cross-section dependence on jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum is reported for proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV in the single-lepton channel. The data were collected with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and comprise the full 2011 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. Differential cross-sections are presented as a function of the jet multiplicity for up to eight jets using jet transverse momentum thresholds of 25, 40, 60, and 80 GeV, and as a function of jet transverse momentum up to the fifth jet. The results are shown after background subtraction and corrections for all known detector effects, within a kinematic range closely matched to the experimental acceptance. Several QCD-based Monte Carlo models are compared with the results. Sensitivity to the parton shower modelling is found at the higher jet multiplicities, at high transverse momentum of the leading jet and in the transverse momentum spectrum of the fifth leading jet. The MC@NLO+HERWIG MC is found to predict too few events at higher jet multiplicities

Measurement of the low-mass Drell-Yan differential cross section at √s = 7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

The differential cross section for the process Z/γ ∗ → ℓℓ (ℓ = e, μ) as a function of dilepton invariant mass is measured in pp collisions at s√ = 7 TeV at the LHC using the ATLAS detector. The measurement is performed in the e and μ channels for invariant masses between 26 GeV and 66 GeV using an integrated luminosity of 1.6 fb−1 collected in 2011 and these measurements are combined. The analysis is extended to invariant masses as low as 12 GeV in the muon channel using 35 pb−1 of data collected in 2010. The cross sections are determined within fiducial acceptance regions and corrections to extrapolate the measurements to the full kinematic range are provided. Next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions provide a significantly better description of the results than next-to-leading-order QCD calculations, unless the latter are matched to a parton shower calculation

Measurement of W± and Z-boson production cross sections in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

See paper for full list of authors - 17 pages plus author list + cover pages (34 pages total), 5 figures, 3 tables, submitted to Phys. Lett. B, All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2015-03/International audienceMeasurements of the $W^{\pm} \rightarrow \ell^{\pm} \nu$ and $Z \rightarrow \ell^+ \ell^-$ production cross sections (where $\ell^{\pm}=e^{\pm},\mu^{\pm}$) in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV are presented using data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 81 pb$^{-1}$. The total inclusive $W^{\pm}$-boson production cross sections times the single-lepton-flavour branching ratios are $\sigma_{W^+}^{tot}= 11.78 \pm 0.02 (stat) \pm 0.32 (sys) \pm 0.59 (lumi)$ nb and $\sigma_{W^-}^{tot} = 8.75 \pm 0.02 (stat) \pm 0.24 (sys) \pm 0.44 (lumi)$ nb for $W^+$ and $W^-$, respectively. The total inclusive $Z$-boson production cross section times leptonic branching ratio, within the invariant mass window $66 < m_{\ell\ell} < 116$ GeV, is $\sigma_{Z}^{tot} = 1.97 \pm 0.01 (stat) \pm 0.04 (sys) \pm 0.10 (lumi)$ nb. The $W^+$, $W^-$, and $Z$-boson production cross sections and cross-section ratios within a fiducial region defined by the detector acceptance are also measured. The cross-section ratios benefit from significant cancellation of experimental uncertainties, resulting in $\sigma_{W^+}^{fid}/\sigma_{W^-}^{fid} = 1.295 \pm 0.003 (stat) \pm 0.010 (sys)$ and $\sigma_{W^{\pm}}^{fid}/\sigma_{Z}^{fid} = 10.31 \pm 0.04 (stat) \pm 0.20 (sys)$. Theoretical predictions, based on calculations accurate to next-to-next-to-leading order for quantum chromodynamics and next-to-leading order for electroweak processes and which employ different parton distribution function sets, are compared to these measurements

Dijet production in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with large rapidity gaps at the ATLAS experiment

A 6.8 nb−¹ sample of pp collision data collected under low-luminosity conditions at √s = 7 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider is used to study diffractive dijet production. Events containing at least two jets with pT > 20 GeV are selected and analysed in terms of variables which discriminate between diffractive and non-diffractive processes. Cross sections are measured differentially in ΔηF, the size of the observable forward region of pseudorapidity which is devoid of hadronic activity, and in an estimator, ξ˜, of the fractional momentum loss of the proton assuming single diffractive dissociation (pp → p X). Model comparisons indicate a dominant non-diffractive contribution up to moderately large ηF and small ξ˜, with a diffractive contribution which is significant at the highest ΔηF and the lowest ξ˜. The rapidity-gap survival probability is estimated from comparisons of the data in this latter region with predictions based on diffractive parton distribution functions