Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Measurement of the Branching Fraction for B- --> D0 K*-

We present a measurement of the branching fraction for the decay B- --> D0 K*- using a sample of approximately 86 million BBbar pairs collected by the BaBar detector from e+e- collisions near the Y(4S) resonance. The D0 is detected through its decays to K- pi+, K- pi+ pi0 and K- pi+ pi- pi+, and the K*- through its decay to K0S pi-. We measure the branching fraction to be B.F.(B- --> D0 K*-)= (6.3 +/- 0.7(stat.) +/- 0.5(syst.)) x 10^{-4}.Comment: 7 pages, 1 postscript figure, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Evidence for the Rare Decay B -> K*ll and Measurement of the B -> Kll Branching Fraction

We present evidence for the flavor-changing neutral current decay $B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-$ and a measurement of the branching fraction for the related process $B\to K\ell^+\ell^-$, where $\ell^+\ell^-$ is either an $e^+e^-$ or $\mu^+\mu^-$ pair. These decays are highly suppressed in the Standard Model, and they are sensitive to contributions from new particles in the intermediate state. The data sample comprises $123\times 10^6$ $\Upsilon(4S)\to B\bar{B}$ decays collected with the Babar detector at the PEP-II $e^+e^-$ storage ring. Averaging over $K^{(*)}$ isospin and lepton flavor, we obtain the branching fractions ${\mathcal B}(B\to K\ell^+\ell^-)=(0.65^{+0.14}_{-0.13}\pm 0.04)\times 10^{-6}$ and ${\mathcal B}(B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-)=(0.88^{+0.33}_{-0.29}\pm 0.10)\times 10^{-6}$, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. The significance of the $B\to K\ell^+\ell^-$ signal is over $8\sigma$, while for $B\to K^*\ell^+\ell^-$ it is $3.3\sigma$.Comment: 7 pages, 2 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Measurement of the quasi-elastic axial vector mass in neutrino-oxygen interactions

The weak nucleon axial-vector form factor for quasi-elastic interactions is determined using neutrino interaction data from the K2K Scintillating Fiber detector in the neutrino beam at KEK. More than 12,000 events are analyzed, of which half are charged-current quasi-elastic interactions nu-mu n to mu- p occurring primarily in oxygen nuclei. We use a relativistic Fermi gas model for oxygen and assume the form factor is approximately a dipole with one parameter, the axial vector mass M_A, and fit to the shape of the distribution of the square of the momentum transfer from the nucleon to the nucleus. Our best fit result for M_A = 1.20 \pm 0.12 GeV. Furthermore, this analysis includes updated vector form factors from recent electron scattering experiments and a discussion of the effects of the nucleon momentum on the shape of the fitted distributions.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, 6 table

Search for the W-exchange decays B0 --> Ds(*)- Ds(*)+

We report a search for the decays $B^{0} \to D_{s}^{-} D_{s}^{+}$, $B^{0} \to D_{s}^{*-} D_{s}^{+}$, $B^{0} \to D_{s}^{*-} D_{s}^{*+}$ in a sample of 232 million $\Upsilon(4S)$ decays to \BBb ~pairs collected with the \babar detector at the PEP-II asymmetric-energy $e^+ e^-$ storage ring. We find no significant signal and set upper bounds for the branching fractions: ${\cal B}(B^{0} \to D_{s}^{-} D_{s}^{+}) < 1.0 \times 10^{-4}, {\cal B}(B^{0} \to D_{s}^{*-} D_{s}^{+}) < 1.3 \times 10^{-4}$ and ${\cal B}(B^{0} \to D_{s}^{*-} D_{s}^{*+}) < 2.4 \times 10^{-4}$ at 90% confidence level.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, submitted to PRD-R

Measurement of the B+ --> p pbar K+ Branching Fraction and Study of the Decay Dynamics

With a sample of 232x10^6 Upsilon(4S) --> BBbar events collected with the BaBar detector, we study the decay B+ --> p pbar K+ excluding charmonium decays to ppbar. We measure a branching fraction Br(B+ --> p pbar K+)=(6.7+/-0.5+/-0.4)x10^{-6}. An enhancement at low ppbar mass is observed and the Dalitz plot asymmetry suggests dominance of the penguin amplitude in this B decay. We search for a pentaquark candidate Theta*++ decaying into pK+ in the mass range 1.43 to 2.00 GeV/c2 and set limits on Br(B+ --> Theta*++pbar)xBr(Theta*++ --> pK+) at the 10^{-7} level.Comment: 8 pages, 7 postscript figures, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

Measurement of the cross-section and charge asymmetry of WW bosons produced in proton-proton collisions at s=8\sqrt{s}=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents measurements of the $W^+ \rightarrow \mu^+\nu$ and $W^- \rightarrow \mu^-\nu$ cross-sections and the associated charge asymmetry as a function of the absolute pseudorapidity of the decay muon. The data were collected in proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC and correspond to a total integrated luminosity of 20.2~\mbox{fb^{-1}}. The precision of the cross-section measurements varies between 0.8% to 1.5% as a function of the pseudorapidity, excluding the 1.9% uncertainty on the integrated luminosity. The charge asymmetry is measured with an uncertainty between 0.002 and 0.003. The results are compared with predictions based on next-to-next-to-leading-order calculations with various parton distribution functions and have the sensitivity to discriminate between them.Comment: 38 pages in total, author list starting page 22, 5 figures, 4 tables, submitted to EPJC. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2017-13

Expected Performance of the ATLAS Experiment - Detector, Trigger and Physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.Comment: 24 pages plus author list (36 pages total), 23 figures, 1 table, submitted to European Physical Journal