Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Seasonality constraints to livestock grazing intensity

Increasing food production is essential to meet the future food demand of a growing world population. In the light of pressing sustainability challenges like climate change and the importance of the global livestock system for food security as well as GHG emissions, finding ways to increasing food production sustainably and without increasing competition for food crops is essential. Yet, many unknowns relate to livestock grazing, in particular grazing intensity, an essential variable to assess the sustainability of livestock systems. Here we explore ecological limits to grazing intensity (GI; i.e., the fraction of Net Primary Production consumed by grazing animals) by analysing the role of seasonality in natural grasslands. We estimate seasonal limitations to GI by combining monthly Net Primary Production data and a map of global livestock distribution with assumptions on the length of non-favourable periods that can be bridged by livestock (e.g., by browsing dead standing biomass, storage systems or biomass conservation). This allows us to derive a seasonality-limited potential GI, which we compare with the GI prevailing in 2000. We find that GI in 2000 lies below its potential on 39% of the total global natural grasslands, which has a potential for increasing biomass extraction of up to 181 MtC/yr. In contrast, on 61% of the area GI exceeds the potential, made possible by management. Mobilizing this potential could increase milk production by 5%, meat production by 4%, or contribute to free up to 2.8 Mio km² of grassland area at the global scale if the numerous socio-ecological constraints can be overcome. We discuss socio-ecological trade-offs, which may reduce the estimated potential considerably and require the establishment of sound monitoring systems and an improved understanding of livestock system’s role in the Earth system

Early readmission and length of hospitalization practices in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (DOPPS)

Background:  Rising hospital care costs have created pressure to shorten hospital stays and emphasize outpatient care. This study tests the hypothesis that shorter median length of stay (LOS) as a dialysis facility practice is associated with higher rates of early readmission. Methods:  Readmission within 30 days of each hospitalization was evaluated for participants in the Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study, an observational study of randomly selected hemodialysis patients in the United States (142 facilities, 5095 patients with hospitalizations), five European countries (101 facilities, 2281 patients with hospitalizations), and Japan (58 facilities, 883 patients with hospitalizations). Associations between median facility LOS (estimated from all hospitalizations at the facility and interpreted as a dialysis facility practice pattern) and odds of readmission were assessed using logistic regression, adjusted for patient characteristics and the LOS of each index hospitalization. Results:  Risk of readmission was directly and significantly associated with LOS of the index hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.005 per day in median facility LOS, p = 0.007) and inversely associated with median facility LOS (AOR = 0.974 per day, p = 0.016). This latter association was strongest for US hemodialysis centers (AOR = 0.954 per day, p = 0.015). Conclusions:  Dialysis facilities with shorter median hospital LOS for their patients have higher odds of readmission, particularly in the United States, where there is greater pressure to shorten LOS. The determinants and consequences of practices related to hospital LOS for hemodialysis patients should be further studied.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73641/1/j.1492-7535.2004.01107.x.pd

Theoretical analysis of the mechanisms of a gender differentiation in the propensity for orthostatic intolerance after spaceflight

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A tendency to develop reentry orthostasis after a prolonged exposure to microgravity is a common problem among astronauts. The problem is 5 times more prevalent in female astronauts as compared to their male counterparts. The mechanisms responsible for this gender differentiation are poorly understood despite many detailed and complex investigations directed toward an analysis of the physiologic control systems involved.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this study, a series of computer simulation studies using a mathematical model of cardiovascular functioning were performed to examine the proposed hypothesis that this phenomenon could be explained by basic physical forces acting through the simple common anatomic differences between men and women. In the computer simulations, the circulatory components and hydrostatic gradients of the model were allowed to adapt to the physical constraints of microgravity. After a simulated period of one month, the model was returned to the conditions of earth's gravity and the standard postflight tilt test protocol was performed while the model output depicting the typical vital signs was monitored.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The analysis demonstrated that a 15% lowering of the longitudinal center of gravity in the anatomic structure of the model was all that was necessary to prevent the physiologic compensatory mechanisms from overcoming the propensity for reentry orthostasis leading to syncope.</p

Factors associated with nursing home placement of all patients admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in Singapore community hospitals from 1996 to 2005: A disease stratified analysis

10.1371/journal.pone.0082697PLoS ONE812-POLN

Characterizing Complex Polysera Produced by Antigen-Specific Immunization through the Use of Affinity-Selected Mimotopes

BACKGROUND: Antigen-based (as opposed to whole organism) vaccines are actively being pursued for numerous indications. Even though different formulations may produce similar levels of total antigen-specific antibody, the composition of the antibody response can be quite distinct resulting in different levels of therapeutic activity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using plasmid-based immunization against the proto-oncogene HER-2 as a model, we have demonstrated that affinity-selected epitope mimetics (mimotopes) can provide a defined signature of a polyclonal antibody response. Further, using novel computer algorithms that we have developed, these mimotopes can be used to predict epitope targets. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By combining our novel strategy with existing methods of epitope prediction based on physical properties of an individual protein, we believe that this method offers a robust method for characterizing the breadth of epitope-specificity within a specific polyserum. This strategy is useful as a tool for monitoring immunity following vaccination and can also be used to define relevant epitopes for the creation of novel vaccines

Spatial Pattern of Standing Timber Value across the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon is a globally important system, providing a host of ecosystem services from climate regulation to food sources. It is also home to a quarter of all global diversity. Large swathes of forest are removed each year, and many models have attempted to predict the spatial patterns of this forest loss. The spatial patterns of deforestation are determined largely by the patterns of roads that open access to frontier areas and expansion of the road network in the Amazon is largely determined by profit seeking logging activities. Here we present predictions for the spatial distribution of standing value of timber across the Amazon. We show that the patterns of timber value reflect large-scale ecological gradients, determining the spatial distribution of functional traits of trees which are, in turn, correlated with timber values. We expect that understanding the spatial patterns of timber value across the Amazon will aid predictions of logging movements and thus predictions of potential future road developments. These predictions in turn will be of great use in estimating the spatial patterns of deforestation in this globally important biome

Estimated GFR reporting is not sufficient to allow detection of chronic kidney disease in an Italian regional hospital

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is an emerging worldwide problem. The lack of attention paid to kidney disease is well known and has been described in previous publications. However, little is known about the magnitude of the problem in highly specialized hospitals where serum creatinine values are used to estimate GFR values.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We performed a cross-sectional evaluation of hospitalized adult patients who were admitted to the medical or surgical department of Santa Maria della Misericordia Hospital in 2007. Information regarding admissions was derived from a database. Our goal was to assess the prevalence of CKD (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] < 60 mL/min/1.73 m²) and detection of CKD using diagnostic codes (Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM]). To reduce the impact of acute renal failure on the study, the last eGFR obtained during hospitalization was the value used for analysis, and intensive care and nephrology unit admissions were excluded. We also excluded patients who had ICD-9-CM codes for renal replacement therapy, acute renal failure, and contrast administration listed as discharge diagnoses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 18,412 patients included in the study, 4,748 (25.8%) had reduced eGFRs, falling into the category of Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) stage 3 (or higher) CKD. However, the diagnosis of CKD was only reported in 19% of these patients (904/4,748). It is therefore evident that there was a "gray area" corresponding to stage 3 CKD (eGFR 30-59 ml/min), in which most CKD diagnoses are missed. The ICD-9 code sensitivity for detecting CKD was significantly higher in patients with diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease (26.8%, 22.2%, and 23.7%, respectively) than in subjects without diabetes, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease (p < 0.001), but these values are low when the widely described relationship between such comorbidities and CKD is considered.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although CKD was common in this patient population at a large inpatient regional hospital, the low rates of CKD detection emphasize the primary role nephrologists must play in continued medical education, and the need for ongoing efforts to train physicians (particularly primary care providers) regarding eGFR interpretation and systematic screening for CKD in high-risk patients (i.e., the elderly, diabetics, hypertensives, and patients with CV disease).</p