Magnitude and Determinants of Immediate Adverse Neonatal Outcomes Among Babies Born by Cesarean Section in Public Hospitals in Harari Region, Eastern Ethiopia.

PURPOSE: To determine the magnitude and determinants of immediate adverse neonatal outcomes among babies born by cesarean section in public hospitals in the Harari region, Eastern Ethiopia. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective follow-up study among 715 eligible babies born by cesarean section in Jegula and Hiwot Fana public hospitals in Harar. Neonate is said to have immediate adverse outcomes if one of the following were detected: (1) baby died, or (2) admitted to NICU, or (3) its primitive reflexes were absent within 24 hours after delivery Adjusted risk ratios (ARRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using modified Poisson regression. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, a total of 44 babies died, 139 admitted to NICU, and 133 had absent neonatal reflexes. In general, 157 had an adverse neonatal outcome after CS. The following conditions were postively and statistically related with the outcome: estimated household income (ARR 2.19 CI 1.57– 3.07), having no Antenatal care (ARR 1.46 1.08– 1.97), history of medical or obstetric condition (ARR 1.78 CI 1.38– 2.31, having an absolute indication for delivery (ARR 1.71 CI 1.28– 2.29), presence of meconium (ARR 1.61 CI 1.22– 2.12), low birth weight (ARR 1.96 CI 1.42– 2.70), and respiratory depression at birth (ARR 2.50 CI 1.80– 3.48). CONCLUSION: A fifth of babies developed immediate adverse outcomes after a cesarean section. Several maternal clinical factors were predictors for immediate adverse neonatal outcomes. Assessing previous clinical and obstetric conditions of the women during ANC would help properly plan in averting the occurrence of immediate adverse neonatal outcomes after birth

Uncertainties in the path to 2030:Increasing trends of under-five mortality in the aftermath of Millennium Development Goal in Eastern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Although Ethiopia was applauded for achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) target of reducing child mortality, whether the gains sustained beyond the MDG era was rarely studied. In this study, we reported the trends and determinants of under-five mortality (U5M) from 2015 to 2020 in a population based cohort under the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), eastern Ethiopia. METHODS: We followed pregnant women and their pregnancy outcomes from 2015 to 2020. Each year, data related to death and live births among the follow up population was retrieved. Automated verbal autopsy (InterVA-4) was used to assign the cause of death and Stata 14 was used for analysis. U5M rate was calculated as death among under five children divided by all live births during the study period and described per 1000 live births along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). A multivariable Cox proportional regression model was used to identify determinant of U5M using adjusted hazard ratio (AHR). Finally, P value <0.05 was considered for declaring statistically significant association. RESULTS: From January 2015 to December 2020, a total of 28 870 live births were registered under the Kersa HDSS, of whom 1335 died before their fifth birthday. The overall U5M rate was 46.3 per 1000 live births (95% confidence interval (CI) = 43.79-48.79), with significant increase from 27.9 in 2015 to 54.7 in 2020 (P < 0.041). Diarrheal diseases, acute respiratory tract infection including pneumonia, meningitis and encephalitis, and HIV related deaths were the leading causes of U5M. The hazard of death was higher among children born to poor household (AHR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.27-1.81), rural residents (AHR = 6.0; 95% CI = 3.65-9.91), born to adolescent mothers (AHR = 1.41; 95% CI = 1.02-1.95), whose mother didn’t receive antenatal care (AHR = 1.43; 95% CI = 1.21-1.69), were born preterm (AHR = 14.1; 95% CI = 9.96-19.89) and had low birth-weight (AHR = 1.74; 95% CI = 1.39-2.18). CONCLUSION: We found high level of U5M rate with an increasing trend in the aftermath of the praised MDG4 achievement. Achieving the ambitious U5M of 25 per 1000 live births by 2030 requires addressing diarrheal disease, and respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS. Reasons behind the persistent increase over the study period require further inquiry

Predictors of neonatal near-misses in Worabe Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Southern Ethiopia

BackgroundNeonatal deaths are still a major leading cause of social and economic crises. Identifying neonatal near-miss events and identifying their predictors is crucial to developing comprehensive and pertinent strategies to alleviate neonatal morbidity and death. However, neither neonatal near-miss events nor their predictors were analyzed in the study area. Therefore, this study is aimed at assessing the predictors of neonatal near-misses among neonates born at Worabe Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Southern Ethiopia, in 2021MethodsA hospital-based unmatched case-control study was conducted from 10 November 2021 to 30 November 2021. A pre-tested, structured, and standard abstraction checklist was used to collect the data. After checking the data for completeness and consistency, it was coded and entered into Epi-Data 3.1 and then exported to Stata version 14 for analysis. All independent variables with a p-value ≤0.25 in bivariable binary logistic regression were entered into a multivariable analysis to control the confounding. Variables with p-values &lt;0.05 were considered statistically significant.ResultsIn this study, 134 neonatal near-miss cases and 268 controls were involved. The identified predictors of neonatal near-misses were rural residence [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.01; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31–5.84], no antenatal care (ANC) follow-up visits (AOR: 2.98; 95% CI: 1.77–5.56), antepartum hemorrhage (AOR: 2.12; 95% CI: 1.18–4.07), premature rupture of the membrane (AOR: 2.55; 95% CI: 1.54–5.67), and non-vertex fetal presentation (AOR: 3.05; 95% CI: 1.93–5.42).ConclusionThe current study identified rural residents, no ANC visits, antepartum hemorrhage, premature rupture of membrane, and non-vertex fetal presentation as being significantly associated with neonatal near-miss cases. As a result, local health planners and healthcare practitioners must collaborate in enhancing maternal healthcare services, focusing specifically on the early identification of issues and appropriate treatment

Prevalence of wasting and associated factors among children aged 6–59 months in Habro district, Eastern Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

BackgroundGlobally, five million children under the age of five died in 2021. Asia and African countries contributed to 69% and 27.2% of wasting, respectively. In Ethiopia, out of 901 (10.1%) under-five children, 632 (8.1%) were found to be moderately wasted, and 269 (3.0%) were severely wasted. The purpose of this study was to assess the prevalence of wasting and its associated factors among children between the ages of 6 and 59 months in Habro Woreda, Oromia, Eastern Ethiopia.MethodsA community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Habro Woreda from 25 August to 20 September 2020. In total, 306 participants were included in this study through a systematic sampling technique. Data were collected using a pretested structured questionnaire through a face-to-face interview, entered into EpiData version 3.1, and analyzed using SPSS version 25. Predictors were assessed using a multivariate logistic regression analysis model and reported using an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Statistical significance was set at p &lt; 0.05.ResultsOverall, the prevalence of wasting among children aged 6–59 months in the Habro district was 28%, with a 95% confidence interval [26.5, 32.2%]. Factors such as mothers illiterate [AOR = 3.4; 95% CI: 1.14–10.47], households without latrines [AOR = 2.91; 95% CI: 1.33–6.37], food-insecure households [AOR = 4.11; 95% CI: 1.87–9], households that did not receive home visits [AOR = 4.2; 95% CI: 1.92–9.15], did not eat a variety of food [AOR = 7.44; 95% CI: 2.58–21.45], sick children after discharge from the program [AOR = 6.55; 95% CI: 2.85–15.02], readmitted children [AOR = 3.98; 95% CI: 1.43–15.07], and wasting 3.42 [AOR = 3.42; 95% CI: 1.24–9.45] were factors statistically associated with outcome variables.ConclusionThis study noted that the prevalence of wasting among children aged 6–59 months following discharge from the Outpatient Therapeutic Program remains high. Educational status of the mother, availability of a latrine, separate kitchen in the household, household food insecurity, household dietary diversity, home visit, and admission type were significantly associated with wasting of children after discharge from the outpatient therapeutic program. Therefore, efforts that target these factors should be maximized to reduce the occurrence of wasting among children aged 6–59 months after discharge from the outpatient therapeutic program

The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Akinyemiju T, Abera S, Ahmed M, et al. The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. JAMA ONCOLOGY. 2017;3(12):1683-1691.IMPORTANCE Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. OBJECTIVE To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an " other" group that encompasses residual causes. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS Mortalitywas estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. RESULTS There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and -8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.Peer reviewe

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern 3 Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global 4 Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance,and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION: Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation