Ethics of planning for, and responding to, pandemic influenza in Sub Saharan Africa: qualitative study

This thesis argues that ethical issues in Ghana and Malawi represent barriers to pandemic influenza management and prevention. The ways in which ethical issues arise and are manifested are poorly understood, in part because there is little knowledge and inadequate Planning for, and Response to, Pandemic Influenza (PRPI). Rather than offering simple answers, this thesis describes how ethical problems emerge in the course of pandemic authorities performing their everyday duties. The central aim is to understand what ethical issues mean to policymakers and how they may be resolved. An extensive review of the experiences of the 1918 influenza pandemic including the epidemiology is examined to illustrate the profound impact of the disease and lessons that can be learnt. The study operates at two distinct but related levels. Firstly there is an investigation of PRPI at a broad level. Secondly, an exploration of the ethical issues that emerges from PRPI within the analytical framework of decision-making models. A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews is used to conduct the study with a “purposive sampling” of forty six policymakers from Malawi (22) and Ghana (24). Utilizing existing normative ethical theories, but acknowledging theoretical and empirical approaches to public health ethics and bioethics, this thesis provides a contextual public health framework to study broad moral problems in particular situations. The findings of the study reveal that normative claims can successfully influence policy if substantiated with empirical evidence. Ethical problems are highly practical and contextual in nature, occurring differently in the context of particular settings, cultures, values and moral judgments. Policymakers interviewed identified ethical problems in relation to four key areas: the extent and role of resources in PRPI, the nature of public health interventions (PHIs), the extent of the impact of PHIs and the extent and process of decision-making, reasoning and justification. Policymakers resolved ethical problems by simply applying rules, work norms and common sense without moral and flexible principle-driven thinking. Policymakers’ technical knowledge of ethics is inadequate for balancing the hard pressed moral tensions that may arise between the demands of civil liberties and public health. These results underscore the need to update overall goals in pandemic operations, training and education. Most importantly, an ethical framework remains an important part of dealing with ethical problems. A process of developing an ethical framework is proposed, but the key to combating any ethical problem lies in understanding the PRPI strategy

Ethics of planning for, and responding to, pandemic influenza in Sub Saharan Africa: qualitative study

This thesis argues that ethical issues in Ghana and Malawi represent barriers to pandemic influenza management and prevention. The ways in which ethical issues arise and are manifested are poorly understood, in part because there is little knowledge and inadequate Planning for, and Response to, Pandemic Influenza (PRPI). Rather than offering simple answers, this thesis describes how ethical problems emerge in the course of pandemic authorities performing their everyday duties. The central aim is to understand what ethical issues mean to policymakers and how they may be resolved. An extensive review of the experiences of the 1918 influenza pandemic including the epidemiology is examined to illustrate the profound impact of the disease and lessons that can be learnt. The study operates at two distinct but related levels. Firstly there is an investigation of PRPI at a broad level. Secondly, an exploration of the ethical issues that emerges from PRPI within the analytical framework of decision-making models. A qualitative study using semi-structured interviews is used to conduct the study with a “purposive sampling” of forty six policymakers from Malawi (22) and Ghana (24). Utilizing existing normative ethical theories, but acknowledging theoretical and empirical approaches to public health ethics and bioethics, this thesis provides a contextual public health framework to study broad moral problems in particular situations. The findings of the study reveal that normative claims can successfully influence policy if substantiated with empirical evidence. Ethical problems are highly practical and contextual in nature, occurring differently in the context of particular settings, cultures, values and moral judgments. Policymakers interviewed identified ethical problems in relation to four key areas: the extent and role of resources in PRPI, the nature of public health interventions (PHIs), the extent of the impact of PHIs and the extent and process of decision-making, reasoning and justification. Policymakers resolved ethical problems by simply applying rules, work norms and common sense without moral and flexible principle-driven thinking. Policymakers’ technical knowledge of ethics is inadequate for balancing the hard pressed moral tensions that may arise between the demands of civil liberties and public health. These results underscore the need to update overall goals in pandemic operations, training and education. Most importantly, an ethical framework remains an important part of dealing with ethical problems. A process of developing an ethical framework is proposed, but the key to combating any ethical problem lies in understanding the PRPI strategy

Pandemic influenza preparedness in the WHO African region: are we ready yet?

Background Prior to the 2009 pandemic H1N1, and the unprecedented outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) caused by the H5N1 virus, the World Health Organization (WHO) called upon its Member States to develop preparedness plans in response to a new pandemic in humans. The WHO Member States responded to this call by developing national pandemic plans in accordance with the International Health Regulations (IHR) to strengthen the capabilities of Member States to respond to different pandemic scenarios. In this study, we aim to evaluate the quality of the preparedness plans in the WHO African region since their inception in 2005. Methods A standard checklist with 61 binary indicators (“yes” or “no”) was used to assess the quality of the preparedness plans. The checklist was categorised across seven thematic areas of preparedness: preparation (16 indicators); coordination and partnership (5 indicators); risk communication (8 indicators); surveillance and monitoring (7 indicators); prevention and containment (10 indicators); case investigation and treatment (10 indicators) and ethical consideration (5 indicators). Four assessors independently scored the plans against the checklist. Results Of the 47 countries in the WHO African region, a total of 35 national pandemic plans were evaluated. The composite score for the completeness of the pandemic plans across the 35 countries was 36%. Country-specific scores on each of the thematic indicators for pandemic plan completeness varied, ranging from 5% in Côte d’Ivoire to 79% in South Africa. On average, preparation and risk communication scored 48%, respectively, while coordination and partnership scored the highest with an aggregate score of 49%. Surveillance and monitoring scored 34%, while prevention and containment scored 35%. Case investigation and treatment scored 25%, and ethical consideration scored the lowest of 14% across 35 countries. Overall, our assessment shows that pandemic preparedness plans across the WHO African region are inadequate. Conclusions Moving forward, these plans must address the gaps identified in this study and demonstrate clarity in their goals that are achievable through drills, simulations and tabletop exercises

Decomposing the gap in missed opportunities for vaccination between poor and non-poor in sub-Saharan Africa : a multicountry analyses

Understanding the gaps in MOV between poor and non-poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) would enable an understanding of factors associated with interventions for improving immunization coverage to achieving universal childhood immunization. We aimed to conduct a multicountry analyses to decompose the gap in MOV between poor and non-poor in SSA. We used cross-sectional data from 35 Demographic and Health Surveys in SSA conducted between 2007 and 2016. Descriptive statistics were used to understand the gap in MOV between the urban poor and non-poor, and across the selected covariates. Out of the 35 countries included in this analysis, 19 countries showed pro-poor inequality, five showed pro-non-poor inequality and remaining 11 countries showed no statistically significant inequality. Among the countries with statistically significant pro-illiterate inequality, the risk difference ranged from 4.2% in Congo DR to 20.1% in Kenya. The important factors responsible for the inequality varied across the countries. In Madagascar, the largest contributions to the inequality in MOV was media access followed by number of under-five children and maternal education. However, Liberia media access narrowed the inequality in MOV between poor and non-poor households.The findings indicate that in most SSA countries, children belonging to poor households are most likely to have MOV and that socio-economic inequality in missed opportunities for vaccination is determined not only by health system functions, but also by factors beyond the scope of health authorities and care delivery system. Suggesting the the importance of addressing the social determinants of health, particularly education

Rural-urban disparities in missed opportunities for vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa : a multi-country decomposition analyses

Background In this study, we aimed to explore the rural-urban disparities in the magnitude and determinants of missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods This was a cross-sectional study using nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2007 and 2017 in 35 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. The risk difference in MOV between rural or urban dwellers were calculated. Logistic regression method was used to investigate the urban-rural disparities in multivariable analyses. Then Blinder-Oaxaca method was used to decompose differences in MOV between rural and urban dwellers. Results The median number of children aged 12 to 23 months was 2113 (Min: 370, Max: 5896). There was wide variation in the the magnitude of MOV among children in rural and urban areas across the 35 countries. The magnitude of MOV in rural areas varied from 18.0% (95% CI 14.7 to 21.4) in the Gambia to 85.2% (81.2 to 88.9) in Gabon. Out of the 35 countries included in this analysis, pro-rural inequality was observed in 16 countries (i.e. MOV is prevalent among children living in rural areas) and pro-urban inequality in five countries (i.e. MOV is prevalent among children living in urban areas). The contributions of the compositional ‘explained’ and structural ‘unexplained’ components varied across the countries. However, household wealth index was the most frequently identified factor. Conclusions Variation exists in the level of missed opportunities for vaccination between rural and urban areas, with widespread pro-rural inequalities across Africa. Although several factors account for these rural-urban disparities in various countries, household wealth was the most common

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years : an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoea! disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78.4 deaths (70.1-87.1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69.6% (63.1-74.6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13.3% decrease, 11.2-15.5), childhood wasting (9.9% decrease, 9.6-10.2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6.9% decrease, 4-8-8-4). Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress