40 days and 40 nights: Clinical characteristics of major trauma and orthopaedic injury comparing the incubation and lockdown phases of COVID-19 infection

Aims The first death in the UK caused by COVID-19 occurred on 5 March 2020. We aim to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of major trauma and orthopaedic patients admitted in the early COVID-19 era. Methods A prospective trauma registry was reviewed at a Level 1 Major Trauma Centre. We divided patients into Group A, 40 days prior to 5 March 2020, and into Group B, 40 days after. Results A total of 657 consecutive trauma and orthopaedic patients were identified with a mean age of 55 years (8 to 98; standard deviation (SD) 22.52) and 393 (59.8%) were males. In all, 344 (approximately 50%) of admissions were major trauma. Group A had 421 patients, decreasing to 236 patients in Group B (36%). Mechanism of injury (MOI) was commonly a fall in 351 (52.4%) patients, but road traffic accidents (RTAs) increased from 56 (13.3%) in group A to 51 (21.6%) in group B (p = 0.030). ICU admissions decreased from 26 (6.2%) in group A to 5 (2.1%) in group B. Overall, 39 patients tested positive for COVID-19 with mean age of 73 years (28 to 98; SD 17.99) and 22 (56.4%) males. Common symptoms were dyspnoea, dry cough, and pyrexia. Of these patients, 27 (69.2%) were nosocomial infections and two (5.1%) of these patients required intensive care unit (ICU) admission with 8/39 mortality (20.5%). Of the patients who died, 50% were older and had underlying comorbidities (hypertension and cardiovascular disease, dementia, arthritis). Conclusion Trauma admissions decreased in the lockdown phase with an increased incidence of RTAs. Nosocomial infection was common in 27 (69.2%) of those with COVID-19. Symptoms and comorbidities were consistent with previous reports with noted inclusion of dementia and arthritis. The mortality rate of trauma and COVID-19 was 20.5%, mainly in octogenarians, and COVID-19 surgical mortality was 15.4%

Pogostick: A New Versatile piggyBac Vector for Inducible Gene Over-Expression and Down-Regulation in Emerging Model Systems

Non-traditional model systems need new tools that will enable them to enter the field of functional genetics. These tools should enable the exploration of gene function, via knock-downs of endogenous genes, as well as over-expression and ectopic expression of transgenes.We constructed a new vector called Pogostick that can be used to over-express or down-regulate genes in organisms amenable to germ line transformation by the piggyBac transposable element. Pogostick can be found at www.addgene.org, a non-profit plasmid repository. The vector currently uses the heat-shock promoter Hsp70 from Drosophila to drive transgene expression and, as such, will have immediate applicability to organisms that can correctly interpret this promotor sequence. We detail how to clone candidate genes into this vector and test its functionality in Drosophila by targeting a gene coding for the fluorescent protein DsRed. By cloning a single DsRed copy into the vector, and generating transgenic lines, we show that DsRed mRNA and protein levels are elevated following heat-shock. When cloning a second copy of DsRed in reverse orientation into a flanking site, and transforming flies constitutively expressing DsRed in the eyes, we show that endogenous mRNA and protein levels drop following heat-shock. We then test the over-expression vector, containing the complete cDNA of Ultrabithorax (Ubx) gene, in an emerging model system, Bicyclus anynana. We produce a transgenic line and show that levels of Ubx mRNA expression rise significantly following a heat-shock. Finally, we show how to obtain genomic sequence adjacent to the Pogostick insertion site and to estimate transgene copy number in genomes of transformed individuals.This new vector will allow emerging model systems to enter the field of functional genetics with few hurdles

Prognostic gene expression signature for high-grade serous ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Median overall survival (OS) for women with high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is ∼4 years, yet survival varies widely between patients. There are no well-established, gene expression signatures associated with prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop a robust prognostic signature for OS in patients with HGSOC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Expression of 513 genes, selected from a meta-analysis of 1455 tumours and other candidates, was measured using NanoString technology from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumour tissue collected from 3769 women with HGSOC from multiple studies. Elastic net regularization for survival analysis was applied to develop a prognostic model for 5-year OS, trained on 2702 tumours from 15 studies and evaluated on an independent set of 1067 tumours from six studies. RESULTS: Expression levels of 276 genes were associated with OS (false discovery rate < 0.05) in covariate-adjusted single-gene analyses. The top five genes were TAP1, ZFHX4, CXCL9, FBN1 and PTGER3 (P < 0.001). The best performing prognostic signature included 101 genes enriched in pathways with treatment implications. Each gain of one standard deviation in the gene expression score conferred a greater than twofold increase in risk of death [hazard ratio (HR) 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-2.71; P < 0.001]. Median survival [HR (95% CI)] by gene expression score quintile was 9.5 (8.3 to -), 5.4 (4.6-7.0), 3.8 (3.3-4.6), 3.2 (2.9-3.7) and 2.3 (2.1-2.6) years. CONCLUSION: The OTTA-SPOT (Ovarian Tumor Tissue Analysis consortium - Stratified Prognosis of Ovarian Tumours) gene expression signature may improve risk stratification in clinical trials by identifying patients who are least likely to achieve 5-year survival. The identified novel genes associated with the outcome may also yield opportunities for the development of targeted therapeutic approaches

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary: Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9) in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in 2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years (56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Processing of joint molecule intermediates by structure-selective endonucleases during homologous recombination in eukaryotes

Homologous recombination is required for maintaining genomic integrity by functioning in high-fidelity repair of DNA double-strand breaks and other complex lesions, replication fork support, and meiotic chromosome segregation. Joint DNA molecules are key intermediates in recombination and their differential processing determines whether the genetic outcome is a crossover or non-crossover event. The Holliday model of recombination highlights the resolution of four-way DNA joint molecules, termed Holliday junctions, and the bacterial Holliday junction resolvase RuvC set the paradigm for the mechanism of crossover formation. In eukaryotes, much effort has been invested in identifying the eukaryotic equivalent of bacterial RuvC, leading to the discovery of a number of DNA endonucleases, including Mus81–Mms4/EME1, Slx1–Slx4/BTBD12/MUS312, XPF–ERCC1, and Yen1/GEN1. These nucleases exert different selectivity for various DNA joint molecules, including Holliday junctions. Their mutant phenotypes and distinct species-specific characteristics expose a surprisingly complex system of joint molecule processing. In an attempt to reconcile the biochemical and genetic data, we propose that nicked junctions constitute important in vivo recombination intermediates whose processing determines the efficiency and outcome (crossover/non-crossover) of homologous recombination

The extinction risk has been seriously underestimated for the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in the Pearl River Estuary

Population Biology and Abundance - Group B: poster presentation: no. Bay 16.1Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins (Sousa chinensis) are among the most threatened coastal delphinids. Owing to their habitat selectivity, most extant populations are limited in size and constrained by habitat fragments, while scarce scientific evidence frequently hampers informed conservation management. To obtain reliable demographic parameters for a rigorous population risk assessment, a 5-year monitoring program was carried out in the Neilingding Sea area of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), southeast China. Mark-recapture photo-ID data was obtained during 1287 encounters at 465 survey-days (326 and 252 in Hong Kong and mainland China, respectively). Separate datasets were cross-matched and combined for the final analyses. A total of 991 individuals were identified and catalogued (543 seen only in mainland waters, 127 only in Hong Kong, and 320 seen in both); of which 754 were seen on more than one survey (mean and maximum re-sighting rate = 11.2 and 75, respectively). To counterweigh for the heterogeneity of effort, we divided the study area into three sections: Hong Kong waters, southern PRE (sPRE) and northern PRE (nPRE). The median c-hat of 2.65 indicated no sign of data over-dispersion. The best fit Cormack-Jolly-Seber model revealed an apparent survival rate as 0.939 (95% CI: 0.902–0.963), comparable to previous estimates based on static life table analyses; while the second-best model (DQAICc=1.14) suggested a survival rate in nPRE (0.873; 95% CI=0.784–0.929) to be much lower than in sPRE–HK (0.954; 95% CI=0.916–0.976). The super population size estimate (NT) corrected for ID-ratio was 996 (95% CI: 902–1019) and 959 (95% CI: 983–1010) for marked-database and highly-marked-database, respectively. Population trend analyses indicate that over one/third of the population was lost in the past two decades; whereas population viability analysis suggest that the PRE humpback dolphins should be listed as critically endangered under the IUCN criterion A3