Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Sub-Planckian black holes and the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

The Black Hole Uncertainty Principle correspondence suggests that there could exist black holes with mass beneath the Planck scale but radius of order the Compton scale rather than Schwarzschild scale. We present a modified, self-dual Schwarzschild-like metric that reproduces desirable aspects of a variety of disparate models in the sub-Planckian limit, while remaining Schwarzschild in the large mass limit. The self-dual nature of this solution under $M \leftrightarrow M^{-1}$ naturally implies a Generalized Uncertainty Principle with the linear form $\Delta x \sim \frac{1}{\Delta p} + \Delta p$. We also demonstrate a natural dimensional reduction feature, in that the gravitational radius and thermodynamics of sub-Planckian objects resemble that of $(1+1)$-D gravity. The temperature of sub-Planckian black holes scales as $M$ rather than $M^{-1}$ but the evaporation of those smaller than $10^{-36}$g is suppressed by the cosmic background radiation. This suggests that relics of this mass could provide the dark matter.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, version published in J. High En. Phy

Structural and Thermodynamic Approach to Peptide Immunogenicity

In the conventional paradigm of humoral immunity, B cells recognize their cognate antigen target in its native form. However, it is well known that relatively unstable peptides bearing only partial structural resemblance to the native protein can trigger antibodies recognizing higher-order structures found in the native protein. On the basis of sound thermodynamic principles, this work reveals that stability of immunogenic proteinlike motifs is a critical parameter rationalizing the diverse humoral immune responses induced by different linear peptide epitopes. In this paradigm, peptides with a minimal amount of stability (ΔGX<0 kcal/mol) around a proteinlike motif (X) are capable of inducing antibodies with similar affinity for both peptide and native protein, more weakly stable peptides (ΔGX>0 kcal/mol) trigger antibodies recognizing full protein but not peptide, and unstable peptides (ΔGX>8 kcal/mol) fail to generate antibodies against either peptide or protein. Immunization experiments involving peptides derived from the autoantigen histidyl-tRNA synthetase verify that selected peptides with varying relative stabilities predicted by molecular dynamics simulations induce antibody responses consistent with this theory. Collectively, these studies provide insight pertinent to the structural basis of immunogenicity and, at the same time, validate this form of thermodynamic and molecular modeling as an approach to probe the development/evolution of humoral immune responses

Horizontal DNA transfer mechanisms of bacteria as weapons of intragenomic conflict

Horizontal DNA transfer (HDT) is a pervasive mechanism of diversification in many microbial species, but its primary evolutionary role remains controversial. Much recent research has emphasised the adaptive benefit of acquiring novel DNA, but here we argue instead that intragenomic conflict provides a coherent framework for understanding the evolutionary origins of HDT. To test this hypothesis, we developed a mathematical model of a clonally descended bacterial population undergoing HDT through transmission of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) and genetic transformation. Including the known bias of transformation toward the acquisition of shorter alleles into the model suggested it could be an effective means of counteracting the spread of MGEs. Both constitutive and transient competence for transformation were found to provide an effective defence against parasitic MGEs; transient competence could also be effective at permitting the selective spread of MGEs conferring a benefit on their host bacterium. The coordination of transient competence with cell-cell killing, observed in multiple species, was found to result in synergistic blocking of MGE transmission through releasing genomic DNA for homologous recombination while simultaneously reducing horizontal MGE spread by lowering the local cell density. To evaluate the feasibility of the functions suggested by the modelling analysis, we analysed genomic data from longitudinal sampling of individuals carrying Streptococcus pneumoniae. This revealed the frequent within-host coexistence of clonally descended cells that differed in their MGE infection status, a necessary condition for the proposed mechanism to operate. Additionally, we found multiple examples of MGEs inhibiting transformation through integrative disruption of genes encoding the competence machinery across many species, providing evidence of an ongoing "arms race." Reduced rates of transformation have also been observed in cells infected by MGEs that reduce the concentration of extracellular DNA through secretion of DNases. Simulations predicted that either mechanism of limiting transformation would benefit individual MGEs, but also that this tactic's effectiveness was limited by competition with other MGEs coinfecting the same cell. A further observed behaviour we hypothesised to reduce elimination by transformation was MGE activation when cells become competent. Our model predicted that this response was effective at counteracting transformation independently of competing MGEs. Therefore, this framework is able to explain both common properties of MGEs, and the seemingly paradoxical bacterial behaviours of transformation and cell-cell killing within clonally related populations, as the consequences of intragenomic conflict between self-replicating chromosomes and parasitic MGEs. The antagonistic nature of the different mechanisms of HDT over short timescales means their contribution to bacterial evolution is likely to be substantially greater than previously appreciated

Do adults with high functioning autism or Asperger Syndrome differ in empathy and emotion recognition?

The present study examined whether adults with high functioning autism (HFA) showed greater difficulties in (i) their self-reported ability to empathise with others and/or (ii) their ability to read mental states in others’ eyes than adults with Asperger syndrome (AS). The Empathy Quotient (EQ) and ‘Reading the Mind in the Eyes’ Test (Eyes Test) were compared in 43 adults with AS and 43 adults with HFA. No significant difference was observed on EQ score between groups, while adults with AS performed significantly better on the Eyes Test than those with HFA. This suggests that adults with HFA may need more support, particularly in mentalizing and complex emotion recognition, and raises questions about the existence of subgroups within autism spectrum conditions

Parity-Violating Electron Scattering from 4He and the Strange Electric Form Factor of the Nucleon

We have measured the parity-violating electroweak asymmetry in the elastic scattering of polarized electrons from ^4He at an average scattering angle = 5.7 degrees and a four-momentum transfer Q^2 = 0.091 GeV^2. From these data, for the first time, the strange electric form factor of the nucleon G^s_E can be isolated. The measured asymmetry of A_PV = (6.72 +/- 0.84 (stat) +/- 0.21 (syst) parts per million yields a value of G^s_E = -0.038 +/- 0.042 (stat) +/- 0.010 (syst), consistent with zero

Crisis Visits and Psychiatric Hospitalizations Among Patients Attending a Community Clinic in Rural Southern California

Ethnic minorities from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds report increased utilization of mental health emergency services; however findings have been inconsistent across ethnic/racial groups. In this study we describe patients who present to a rural crisis unit in Southern California, examine rates of psychiatric hospitalizations across ethnic/racial groups, and investigate factors that are associated with increased psychiatric hospitalizations in this sample. This is a retrospective study of 451 racially and ethnically diverse patients attending a crisis unit in Imperial County, California. Chart review and data abstraction methods were used to characterize the sample and identify factors associated with psychiatric crises and subsequent hospitalizations. The sample was predominantly Latino/Hispanic (58.5%). Based on chart review, common psychosocial stressors which prompted a crisis center visit were: (a) financial problems; (b) homelessness; (c) partner or family conflict; (d) physical and health problems; (e) problems at school/work; (f) medication compliance; (g) aggressive behavior; (h) delusional behavior; (i) addiction and (j) anxiety/depression. Bivariate analyses revealed that Hispanics had a disproportionately lower rate of psychiatric hospitalizations while African Americans had a higher rate. Multivariate analyses which included demographic, clinical and psychosocial stressor variables revealed that being African American, having a psychotic disorder, and presenting as gravely disabled were associated with a higher likelihood of hospitalization while partner/family conflict was associated with a lesser likelihood in this rural community. These data elucidate the need for longitudinal studies to understand the interactions between psychosocial stressors, ethnicity and social support as determinants of psychiatric hospitalizations

Chromosomal-level assembly of the Asian Seabass genome using long sequence reads and multi-layered scaffolding

We report here the ~670 Mb genome assembly of the Asian seabass (Lates calcarifer), a tropical marine teleost. We used long-read sequencing augmented by transcriptomics, optical and genetic mapping along with shared synteny from closely related fish species to derive a chromosome-level assembly with a contig N50 size over 1 Mb and scaffold N50 size over 25 Mb that span ~90% of the genome. The population structure of L. calcarifer species complex was analyzed by re-sequencing 61 individuals representing various regions across the species' native range. SNP analyses identified high levels of genetic diversity and confirmed earlier indications of a population stratification comprising three clades with signs of admixture apparent in the South-East Asian population. The quality of the Asian seabass genome assembly far exceeds that of any other fish species, and will serve as a new standard for fish genomics

Human depression: a new approach in quantitative psychiatry

The biomolecular approach to major depression disorder is explained by the different steps that involve cell membrane viscosity, Gsα protein and tubulin. For the first time it is hypothesised that a biomolecular pathway exists, moving from cell membrane viscosity through Gsα protein and Tubulin, which can condition the conscious state and is measurable by electroencephalogram study of the brain's γ wave synchrony

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT