On the efficient determination of optimal Bayesian experimental designs using ABC: a case study in optimal observation of epidemics

We present a new method for determining optimal Bayesian experimental designs, which we refer to as ABCdE. ABCdE uses Approximate Bayesian Computation to calculate the utility of possible designs. For problems with a low-dimensional design space, it evaluates the designs’ utility in less computation time compared to existing methods. We apply ABCdE to stochastic epidemic models. Optimal designs evaluated using ABCdE are compared to those evaluated using existing methods for the stochastic death and susceptible–infectious (SI) models. We present the Bayesian optimal experimental designs for the susceptible–infectious–susceptible (SIS) model using ABCdE.David J. Price, Nigel G. Bean, Joshua V. Ross, Jonathan Tuk

Cloning and sequence analysis of the gene encoding Methylophilus methyltrophus cytochrome c: a unique protein with a perpendicular orientation of the histidinyl ligands

Metals in Catalysis, Biomimetics & Inorganic Material

Characterization of neutrino signals with radiopulses in dense media through the LPM effect

We discuss the possibilities of detecting radio pulses from high energy showers in ice, such as those produced by PeV and EeV neutrino interactions. It is shown that the rich radiation pattern structure in the 100 MHz to few GHz allows the separation of electromagnetic showers induced by photons or electrons above 100 PeV from those induced by hadrons. This opens up the possibility of measuring the energy fraction transmitted to the electron in a charged current electron neutrino interaction with adequate sampling of the angular distribution of the signal. The radio technique has the potential to complement conventional high energy neutrino detectors with flavor information.Comment: 5 pages, 4 ps figures. Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Predicting estrogen receptor binding of chemicals using a suite of in silico methods – Complementary approaches of (Q)SAR, molecular docking and molecular dynamics

With the aim of obtaining reliable estimates of Estrogen Receptor (ER) binding for diverse classes of compounds, a weight of evidence approach using estimates from a suite of in silico models was assessed. The predictivity of a simple Majority Consensus of (Q)SAR models was assessed using a test set of compounds with experimental Relative Binding Affinity (RBA) data. Molecular docking was also carried out and the binding energies of these compounds to the ER\u3b1 receptor were determined. For a few selected compounds, including a known full agonist and antagonist, the intrinsic activity was determined using low-mode molecular dynamics methods. Individual (Q)SAR model predictivity varied, as expected, with some models showing high sensitivity, others higher specificity. However, the Majority Consensus (Q)SAR prediction showed a high accuracy and reasonably balanced sensitivity and specificity. Molecular docking provided quantitative information on strength of binding to the ER\u3b1 receptor. For the 50 highest binding affinity compounds with positive RBA experimental values, just 5 of them were predicted to be non-binders by the Majority QSAR Consensus. Furthermore, agonist-specific assay experimental values for these 5 compounds were negative, which indicates that they may be ER antagonists. We also showed different scenarios of combining (Q)SAR results with Molecular docking classification of ER binding based on cut-off values of binding energies, providing a rational combined strategy to maximize terms of toxicological interest

Evidence for surface uplift of the Atlas Mountains and the surrounding peripheral plateaux: Combining apatite fission-track results and geomorphic indicators in the Western Moroccan Meseta (coastal Variscan Paleozoic basement)

This work represents an initial attempt to link the evolution of the topography in relation to the general tectonic framework of western Morocco. For this purpose, in a section of the Western Moroccan Meseta different tools are combined in order to attain the general objective. Apatite fission-track (AFT) data of granitic rocks of the Rabat–Khenifra area give ages around 200 Ma with track length distributions which are compatible with the thermal models already established for the area. An inverse correlation between AFT ages and elevation is observed which is compatible with previous models indicating northward tilting of the whole Western Moroccan Meseta which is younger than 20–25 Ma. In order to test this possibility a detailed analysis of the topography at different scales in the Western Moroccan Meseta has been performed. Results indicate that two open folds with different amplitudes are recognized and that the one with wider wavelength could correspond to a lithospheric fold as previously stated by other authors on the basis of independent geological arguments. The northward tilting proposed based on the AFT data agrees with the results obtained in the analysis of the topography which reinforces the presence of a very open fold with a wavelength of 200–300 km in the north-western limb of the Western Moroccan Meseta

Strichartz estimates on Schwarzschild black hole backgrounds

We study dispersive properties for the wave equation in the Schwarzschild space-time. The first result we obtain is a local energy estimate. This is then used, following the spirit of earlier work of Metcalfe-Tataru, in order to establish global-in-time Strichartz estimates. A considerable part of the paper is devoted to a precise analysis of solutions near the trapping region, namely the photon sphere.Comment: 44 pages; typos fixed, minor modifications in several place

US hegemony and the origins of Japanese nuclear power : the politics of consent

This paper deploys the Gramscian concepts of hegemony and consent in order to explore the process whereby nuclear power was brought to Japan. The core argument is that nuclear power was brought to Japan as a consequence of US hegemony. Rather than a simple manifestation of one state exerting material ‘power over' another, bringing nuclear power to Japan involved a series of compromises worked out within and between state and civil society in both Japan and the USA. Ideologies of nationalism, imperialism and modernity underpinned the process, coalescing in post-war debates about the future trajectory of Japanese society, Japan's Cold War alliance with the USA and the role of nuclear power in both. Consent to nuclear power was secured through the generation of a psychological state in the public mind combining the fear of nuclear attack and the hope of unlimited consumption in a nuclear-fuelled post-modern world

Cotton in the new millennium: advances, economics, perceptions and problems

Cotton is the most significant natural fibre and has been a preferred choice of the textile industry and consumers since the industrial revolution began. The share of man-made fibres, both regenerated and synthetic fibres, has grown considerably in recent times but cotton production has also been on the rise and accounts for about half of the fibres used for apparel and textile goods. To cotton’s advantage, the premium attached to the presence of cotton fibre and the general positive consumer perception is well established, however, compared to commodity man-made fibres and high performance fibres, cotton has limitations in terms of its mechanical properties but can help to overcome moisture management issues that arise with performance apparel during active wear. This issue of Textile Progress aims to: i. Report on advances in cotton cultivation and processing as well as improvements to conventional cotton cultivation and ginning. The processing of cotton in the textile industry from fibre to finished fabric, cotton and its blends, and their applications in technical textiles are also covered. ii. Explore the economic impact of cotton in different parts of the world including an overview of global cotton trade. iii. Examine the environmental perception of cotton fibre and efforts in organic and genetically-modified (GM) cotton production. The topic of naturally-coloured cotton, post-consumer waste is covered and the environmental impacts of cotton cultivation and processing are discussed. Hazardous effects of cultivation, such as the extensive use of pesticides, insecticides and irrigation with fresh water, and consequences of the use of GM cotton and cotton fibres in general on the climate are summarised and the effects of cotton processing on workers are addressed. The potential hazards during cotton cultivation, processing and use are also included. iv. Examine how the properties of cotton textiles can be enhanced, for example, by improving wrinkle recovery and reducing the flammability of cotton fibre

Measurement of CP observables in B± → D(⁎)K± and B± → D(⁎)π± decays

Measurements of CP observables in B ± →D (⁎) K ± and B ± →D (⁎) π ± decays are presented, where D (⁎) indicates a neutral D or D ⁎ meson that is an admixture of D (⁎)0 and D¯ (⁎)0 states. Decays of the D ⁎ meson to the Dπ 0 and Dγ final states are partially reconstructed without inclusion of the neutral pion or photon, resulting in distinctive shapes in the B candidate invariant mass distribution. Decays of the D meson are fully reconstructed in the K ± π ∓ , K + K − and π + π − final states. The analysis uses a sample of charged B mesons produced in pp collisions collected by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.0, 1.0 and 2.0 fb −1 taken at centre-of-mass energies of s=7, 8 and 13 TeV, respectively. The study of B ± →D ⁎ K ± and B ± →D ⁎ π ± decays using a partial reconstruction method is the first of its kind, while the measurement of B ± →DK ± and B ± →Dπ ± decays is an update of previous LHCb measurements. The B ± →DK ± results are the most precise to date

Age at first birth in women is genetically associated with increased risk of schizophrenia

Prof. Paunio on PGC:n jäsenPrevious studies have shown an increased risk for mental health problems in children born to both younger and older parents compared to children of average-aged parents. We previously used a novel design to reveal a latent mechanism of genetic association between schizophrenia and age at first birth in women (AFB). Here, we use independent data from the UK Biobank (N = 38,892) to replicate the finding of an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women, and to estimate the genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in women stratified into younger and older groups. We find evidence for an association between predicted genetic risk of schizophrenia and AFB in women (P-value = 1.12E-05), and we show genetic heterogeneity between younger and older AFB groups (P-value = 3.45E-03). The genetic correlation between schizophrenia and AFB in the younger AFB group is -0.16 (SE = 0.04) while that between schizophrenia and AFB in the older AFB group is 0.14 (SE = 0.08). Our results suggest that early, and perhaps also late, age at first birth in women is associated with increased genetic risk for schizophrenia in the UK Biobank sample. These findings contribute new insights into factors contributing to the complex bio-social risk architecture underpinning the association between parental age and offspring mental health.Peer reviewe