Modeling the ecology and evolution of biodiversity: Biogeographical cradles, museums, and graves

Individual processes shaping geographical patterns of biodiversity are increasingly understood, but their complex interactions on broad spatial and temporal scales remain beyond the reach of analytical models and traditional experiments. To meet this challenge, we built a spatially explicit, mechanistic simulation model implementing adaptation, range shifts, fragmentation, speciation, dispersal, competition, and extinction, driven by modeled climates of the past 800,000 years in South America. Experimental topographic smoothing confirmed the impact of climate heterogeneity on diversification. The simulations identified regions and episodes of speciation (cradles), persistence (museums), and extinction (graves). Although the simulations had no target pattern and were not parameterized with empirical data, emerging richness maps closely resembled contemporary maps for major taxa, confirming powerful roles for evolution and diversification driven by topography and climate

Selecting ecosystem indicators for fisheries targeting highly migratory species: An EU project to advance the operationalization of the EAFM in ICCAT and IOTC

Several international legal agreements and guidelines have set the minimum standards and key principles to guide the implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM). However, the implementation of an EAFM in tuna Regional Fisheries Management Organizations (RFMOs) has been patchy and lack a long-term plan, vision and guidance on how to operationalize it. The Specific Contract N0 2 “selecting ecosystem indicators for fisheries targeting highly migratory species-” (SC02 project) under the Framework Contract - EASME/ EMFF/2016/008 provisions of Scientific Advice for Fisheries Beyond EU Waters- addresses several scientific challenges and provides insights to support the implementation of an EAFM through collaboration and consultation with the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) and the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC). Specifically, this project first highlights properties of success and best practices from other regions of the world in operationalizing the ecosystem approach that potentially could be transferred to ICCAT and IOTC. Second, it delivered a list of potential ecosystem indicators of relevance to tuna RFMOs (ICCAT and IOTC) that are suitable to track the impacts of fisheries targeting tuna and tuna-like species on the broader pelagic ecosystem. Third, it designed a general framework based on a rule-based decision tree to provide guidance on how reference points could be set and used for diverse types of ecosystem indicators. Fourth, it proposed candidate ecoregions within the Atlantic and Indian Oceans which could be used to guide region-based ecosystem plans, assessments and research to ultimately provide better ecosystem-based advice to inform fisheries management. Fifth, it developed two pilot ecosystem plans for two case study regions, the tropical ecoregion within the ICCAT convention area, and the temperate ecoregion within the IOTC convention area. At this stage, these pilot ecosystem plans aim to create awareness about the need for ecosystem planning, start a discussion about the elements that need to be part of a planning process, and initiate a discussion in ICCAT and IOTC about the potential needs of ecosystem plans and their function. Finally, this project provided recommendations to foster the potential development, use, and implementation of ecosystem plans in ICCAT and IOTC

Is the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) a coastal species? Expanding its distribution range in the Atlantic Ocean using at-sea observer data

captura asociada a la pesquería de palangre de superficie dirigida a pez espadaThe occurrence of tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier) in the Atlantic Ocean was assessed using at-sea observer data from multiple pelagic longline fisheries (Japan, Portugal, Spain, United States and Uruguay). Geographic positions of 2,764 tiger sharks, recorded between 1993 and 2013 and covering a wide area of the Atlantic were compared with the currently accepted distribution ranges of the species. Most of our records fell outside the accepted distribution ranges in both the Southern and Northern hemispheres. These results strongly suggest that the distribution range of the tiger shark is considerably wider than previously described, particularly over the open oceanEn prensa1,834

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Feline Leukemia Virus and Other Pathogens as Important Threats to the Survival of the Critically Endangered Iberian Lynx (Lynx pardinus)

BACKGROUND: The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) is considered the most endangered felid species in the world. In order to save this species, the Spanish authorities implemented a captive breeding program recruiting lynxes from the wild. In this context, a retrospective survey on prevalence of selected feline pathogens in free-ranging lynxes was initiated. METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We systematically analyzed the prevalence and importance of seven viral, one protozoan (Cytauxzoon felis), and several bacterial (e.g., hemotropic mycoplasma) infections in 77 of approximately 200 remaining free-ranging Iberian lynxes of the Doñana and Sierra Morena areas, in Southern Spain, between 2003 and 2007. With the exception of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), evidence of infection by all tested feline pathogens was found in Iberian lynxes. Fourteen lynxes were feline leukemia virus (FeLV) provirus-positive; eleven of these were antigenemic (FeLV p27 positive). All 14 animals tested negative for other viral infections. During a six-month period in 2007, six of the provirus-positive antigenemic lynxes died. Infection with FeLV but not with other infectious agents was associated with mortality (p<0.001). Sequencing of the FeLV surface glycoprotein gene revealed a common origin for ten of the eleven samples. The ten sequences were closely related to FeLV-A/61E, originally isolated from cats in the USA. Endogenous FeLV sequences were not detected. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: It was concluded that the FeLV infection most likely originated from domestic cats invading the lynx's habitats. Data available regarding the time frame, co-infections, and outcome of FeLV-infections suggest that, in contrast to the domestic cat, the FeLV strain affecting the lynxes in 2007 is highly virulent to this species. Our data argue strongly for vaccination of lynxes and domestic cats in and around lynx's habitats in order to prevent further spread of the virus as well as reduction the domestic cat population if the lynx population is to be maintained

Search for a singly produced third-generation scalar leptoquark decaying to a tau lepton and a bottom quark in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for a singly produced third-generation scalar leptoquark decaying to a tau lepton and a bottom quark. Associated production of a leptoquark and a tau lepton is considered, leading to a final state with a bottom quark and two tau leptons. The search uses proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded with the CMS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). Upper limits are set at 95% confidence level on the production cross section of the third-generation scalar leptoquarks as a function of their mass. From a comparison of the results with the theoretical predictions, a third-generation scalar leptoquark decaying to a tau lepton and a bottom quark, assuming unit Yukawa coupling (lambda), is excluded for masses below 740 GeV. Limits are also set on lambda of the hypothesized leptoquark as a function of its mass. Above lambda = 1.4, this result provides the best upper limit on the mass of a third-generation scalar leptoquark decaying to a tau lepton and a bottom quark.Peer reviewe

Constraints on models of scalar and vector leptoquarks decaying to a quark and a neutrino at root s=13 TeV

The results of a previous search by the CMS Collaboration for squarks and gluinos are reinterpreted to constrain models of leptoquark (LQ) production. The search considers jets in association with a transverse momentum imbalance, using the M-T2 variable. The analysis uses proton-proton collision data at root s = 13 TeV, recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). Leptoquark pair production is considered with LQ decays to a neutrino and a top, bottom, or light quark. This reinterpretation considers higher mass values than the original CMS search to constrain both scalar and vector LQs. Limits on the cross section for LQ pair production are derived at the 95% confidence level depending on the LQ decay mode. A vector LQ decaying with a 50% branching fraction to t nu, and 50% to b tau, has been proposed as part of an explanation of anomalous flavor physics results. In such a model, using only the decays to t nu, LQ masses below 1530 GeV are excluded assuming the Yang-Mills case with coupling kappa = 1, or 1115 GeV in the minimal coupling case kappa = 0, placing the most stringent constraint to date from pair production of vector LQs.Peer reviewe

The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study

AIM: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has provided a unique opportunity to explore the impact of surgical delays on cancer resectability. This study aimed to compare resectability for colorectal cancer patients undergoing delayed versus non-delayed surgery. METHODS: This was an international prospective cohort study of consecutive colorectal cancer patients with a decision for curative surgery (January-April 2020). Surgical delay was defined as an operation taking place more than 4 weeks after treatment decision, in a patient who did not receive neoadjuvant therapy. A subgroup analysis explored the effects of delay in elective patients only. The impact of longer delays was explored in a sensitivity analysis. The primary outcome was complete resection, defined as curative resection with an R0 margin. RESULTS: Overall, 5453 patients from 304 hospitals in 47 countries were included, of whom 6.6% (358/5453) did not receive their planned operation. Of the 4304 operated patients without neoadjuvant therapy, 40.5% (1744/4304) were delayed beyond 4 weeks. Delayed patients were more likely to be older, men, more comorbid, have higher body mass index and have rectal cancer and early stage disease. Delayed patients had higher unadjusted rates of complete resection (93.7% vs. 91.9%, P = 0.032) and lower rates of emergency surgery (4.5% vs. 22.5%, P < 0.001). After adjustment, delay was not associated with a lower rate of complete resection (OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.90-1.55, P = 0.224), which was consistent in elective patients only (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.27, P = 0.672). Longer delays were not associated with poorer outcomes. CONCLUSION: One in 15 colorectal cancer patients did not receive their planned operation during the first wave of COVID-19. Surgical delay did not appear to compromise resectability, raising the hypothesis that any reduction in long-term survival attributable to delays is likely to be due to micro-metastatic disease

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species. Elasmobranchs displayed high intra- and interspecific variability in vertical movement patterns. Substantial vertical overlap was observed for many epipelagic elasmobranchs, indicating an increased likelihood to display spatial overlap, biologically interact, and share similar risk to anthropogenic threats that vary on a vertical gradient. We highlight the critical next steps toward incorporating vertical movement into global management and monitoring strategies for elasmobranchs, emphasizing the need to address geographic and taxonomic biases in deployments and to concurrently consider both horizontal and vertical movements

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)