Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Mapping H4K20me3 onto the chromatin landscape of senescent cells indicates a function in control of cell senescence and tumor suppression through preservation of genetic and epigenetic stability

Background: Histone modification H4K20me3 and its methyltransferase SUV420H2 have been implicated in suppression of tumorigenesis. The underlying mechanism is unclear, although H4K20me3 abundance increases during cellular senescence, a stable proliferation arrest and tumor suppressor process, triggered by diverse molecular cues, including activated oncogenes. Here, we investigate the function of H4K20me3 in senescence and tumor suppression. Results: Using immunofluorescence and ChIP-seq we determine the distribution of H4K20me3 in proliferating and senescent human cells. Altered H4K20me3 in senescence is coupled to H4K16ac and DNA methylation changes in senescence. In senescent cells, H4K20me3 is especially enriched at DNA sequences contained within specialized domains of senescence-associated heterochromatin foci (SAHF), as well as specific families of non-genic and genic repeats. Altered H4K20me3 does not correlate strongly with changes in gene expression between proliferating and senescent cells; however, in senescent cells, but not proliferating cells, H4K20me3 enrichment at gene bodies correlates inversely with gene expression, reflecting de novo accumulation of H4K20me3 at repressed genes in senescent cells, including at genes also repressed in proliferating cells. Although elevated SUV420H2 upregulates H4K20me3, this does not accelerate senescence of primary human cells. However, elevated SUV420H2/H4K20me3 reinforces oncogene-induced senescence-associated proliferation arrest and slows tumorigenesis in vivo. Conclusions: These results corroborate a role for chromatin in underpinning the senescence phenotype but do not support a major role for H4K20me3 in initiation of senescence. Rather, we speculate that H4K20me3 plays a role in heterochromatinization and stabilization of the epigenome and genome of pre-malignant, oncogene-expressing senescent cells, thereby suppressing epigenetic and genetic instability and contributing to long-term senescence-mediated tumor suppression

Microarray-Based Transcriptomic Analysis of Differences between Long-Term Gregarious and Solitarious Desert Locusts

Desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria) show an extreme form of phenotypic plasticity and can transform between a cryptic solitarious phase and a swarming gregarious phase. The two phases differ extensively in behavior, morphology and physiology but very little is known about the molecular basis of these differences. We used our recently generated Expressed Sequence Tag (EST) database derived from S. gregaria central nervous system (CNS) to design oligonucleotide microarrays and compare the expression of thousands of genes in the CNS of long-term gregarious and solitarious adult desert locusts. This identified 214 differentially expressed genes, of which 40% have been annotated to date. These include genes encoding proteins that are associated with CNS development and modeling, sensory perception, stress response and resistance, and fundamental cellular processes. Our microarray analysis has identified genes whose altered expression may enable locusts of either phase to deal with the different challenges they face. Genes for heat shock proteins and proteins which confer protection from infection were upregulated in gregarious locusts, which may allow them to respond to acute physiological challenges. By contrast the longer-lived solitarious locusts appear to be more strongly protected from the slowly accumulating effects of ageing by an upregulation of genes related to anti-oxidant systems, detoxification and anabolic renewal. Gregarious locusts also had a greater abundance of transcripts for proteins involved in sensory processing and in nervous system development and plasticity. Gregarious locusts live in a more complex sensory environment than solitarious locusts and may require a greater turnover of proteins involved in sensory transduction, and possibly greater neuronal plasticity

The FunGenES Database: A Genomics Resource for Mouse Embryonic Stem Cell Differentiation

Embryonic stem (ES) cells have high self-renewal capacity and the potential to differentiate into a large variety of cell types. To investigate gene networks operating in pluripotent ES cells and their derivatives, the “Functional Genomics in Embryonic Stem Cells” consortium (FunGenES) has analyzed the transcriptome of mouse ES cells in eleven diverse settings representing sixty-seven experimental conditions. To better illustrate gene expression profiles in mouse ES cells, we have organized the results in an interactive database with a number of features and tools. Specifically, we have generated clusters of transcripts that behave the same way under the entire spectrum of the sixty-seven experimental conditions; we have assembled genes in groups according to their time of expression during successive days of ES cell differentiation; we have included expression profiles of specific gene classes such as transcription regulatory factors and Expressed Sequence Tags; transcripts have been arranged in “Expression Waves” and juxtaposed to genes with opposite or complementary expression patterns; we have designed search engines to display the expression profile of any transcript during ES cell differentiation; gene expression data have been organized in animated graphs of KEGG signaling and metabolic pathways; and finally, we have incorporated advanced functional annotations for individual genes or gene clusters of interest and links to microarray and genomic resources. The FunGenES database provides a comprehensive resource for studies into the biology of ES cells

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p