Export efficiency of black carbon aerosol in continental outflow: Global implications

We use aircraft observations of Asian outflow from the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) mission over the NW Pacific in March–April 2001 to estimate the export efficiency of black carbon (BC) aerosol during lifting to the free troposphere, as limited by scavenging from the wet processes (warm conveyor belts and convection) associated with this lifting. Our estimate is based on the enhancement ratio of BC relative to CO in Asian outflow observed at different altitudes and is normalized to the enhancement ratio observed in boundary layer outflow (0–1 km). We similarly estimate export efficiencies of sulfur oxides (SO x = SO2(g) + fine SO4 2−) and total inorganic nitrate (HNO3 T = HNO3(g) + fine NO3 −) for comparison to BC. Normalized export efficiencies for BC are 0.63–0.74 at 2–4 km altitude and 0.27–0.38 at 4–6 km. Values at 2–4 km altitude are higher than for SO x (0.48–0.66) and HNO3 T (0.29–0.62), implying that BC is scavenged in wet updrafts but not as efficiently as sulfate or nitrate. Simulation of the TRACE-P period with a global three-dimensional model (GEOS-CHEM) indicates that a model timescale of 1 ± 1 days for conversion of fresh hydrophobic to hydrophilic BC provides a successful fit to the export efficiencies observed in TRACE-P. The resulting mean atmospheric lifetime of BC is 5.8 ± 1.8 days, the global burden is 0.11 ± 0.03 Tg C, and the decrease in Arctic snow albedo due to BC deposition is 3.1 ± 2.5%.Earth and Planetary Science

Effects of intrauterine exposure to synthetic glucocorticoids on fetal, newborn, and infant hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis function in humans : a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Synthetic glucocorticoids are commonly used in reproductive medicine. Fetal organ systems are highly sensitive to changes in the intrauterine environment, including overexposure to glucocorticoids. Structural and functional alterations resulting from such changes may persist throughout life and have been associated with diverse diseases. One system that could be particularly sensitive to fetal glucocorticoid overexposure is the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (hpa) axis. Many human studies have investigated this possibility, but a systematic review to identify consistent, emergent findings is lacking. METHODS: We systematically review 49 human studies, assessing the effects of intrauterine exposure to synthetic glucocorticoids on fetal, neonate, and infant hpa function. RESULTS: Study quality varied considerably, but the main findings held true after restricting the analyses to higher-quality studies: intrauterine exposure to synthetic glucocorticoids reduces offspring hpa activity under unstimulated conditions after pain but not pharmacological challenge. Although reduced unstimulated hpa function appears to recover within the first 2 wk postpartum, blunted hpa reactivity to pain is likely to persist throughout the first 4 months of life. There is some evidence that the magnitude of the effects is correlated with the total amount of glucocorticoids administered and varies with the time interval between glucocorticoid exposure and hpa assessment. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review has allowed the demonstration of the way in which intrauterine exposure to various regimens of synthetic glucocorticoids affects various forms of hpa function. As such, it guides future studies in terms of which variables need to be focused on in order to further strengthen the understanding of such therapy, whilst continuing to profit from its clinical benefits

Adherence to antidepressant therapy for major depressive patients in a psychiatric hospital in Thailand

Poor adherence to antidepressant therapy is an important barrier to the effective management of major depressive disorder. This study aims to quantify the adherence rate to antidepressant treatment and to determine the pattern of prescriptions of depressed patients in a psychiatric institute in Thailand.This retrospective study used electronic pharmacy data of outpatients aged 15 or older, with a new diagnosis of major depression who received at least one prescription of antidepressants between August 2005 and September 2008. The medication possession ratio (MPR) was used to measure adherence over a 6 month period.1,058 were eligible for study inclusion. The overall adherence (MPR > 80%) in those attending this facility at least twice was 41% but if we assume that all patients who attended only once were non-adherent, adherence may be as low as 23%. Fluoxetine was the most commonly prescribed drug followed by TCAs. A large proportion of cases received more than one drug during one visit or was switched from one drug to another (39%).Adherence to antidepressant therapy for treatment of major depression in Thailand is rather low compared to results of adherence from elsewhere

Long-acting inhaled therapy (beta-agonists, anticholinergics and steroids) for COPD: a network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pharmacological therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is aimed at relieving symptoms, improving quality of life and preventing or treating exacerbations.Treatment tends to begin with one inhaler, and additional therapies are introduced as necessary. For persistent or worsening symptoms, long-acting inhaled therapies taken once or twice daily are preferred over short-acting inhalers. Several Cochrane reviews have looked at the risks and benefits of specific long-acting inhaled therapies compared with placebo or other treatments. However for patients and clinicians, it is important to understand the merits of these treatments relative to each other, and whether a particular class of inhaled therapies is more beneficial than the others. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy of treatment options for patients whose chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cannot be controlled by short-acting therapies alone. The review will not look at combination therapies usually considered later in the course of the disease.As part of this network meta-analysis, we will address the following issues.1. How does long-term efficacy compare between different pharmacological treatments for COPD?2. Are there limitations in the current evidence base that may compromise the conclusions drawn by this network meta-analysis? If so, what are the implications for future research? SEARCH METHODS: We identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in existing Cochrane reviews by searching the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR). In addition, we ran a comprehensive citation search on the Cochrane Airways Group Register of trials (CAGR) and checked manufacturer websites and reference lists of other reviews. The most recent searches were conducted in September 2013. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included parallel-group RCTs of at least 6 months' duration recruiting people with COPD. Studies were included if they compared any of the following treatments versus any other: long-acting beta2-agonists (LABAs; formoterol, indacaterol, salmeterol); long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs; aclidinium, glycopyrronium, tiotropium); inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs; budesonide, fluticasone, mometasone); combination long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA) and inhaled corticosteroid (LABA/ICS) (formoterol/budesonide, formoterol/mometasone, salmeterol/fluticasone); and placebo. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We conducted a network meta-analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for two efficacy outcomes: St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score and trough forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). We modelled the relative effectiveness of any two treatments as a function of each treatment relative to the reference treatment (placebo). We assumed that treatment effects were similar within treatment classes (LAMA, LABA, ICS, LABA/ICS). We present estimates of class effects, variability between treatments within each class and individual treatment effects compared with every other.To justify the analyses, we assessed the trials for clinical and methodological transitivity across comparisons. We tested the robustness of our analyses by performing sensitivity analyses for lack of blinding and by considering six- and 12-month data separately. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 71 RCTs randomly assigning 73,062 people with COPD to 184 treatment arms of interest. Trials were similar with regards to methodology, inclusion and exclusion criteria and key baseline characteristics. Participants were more often male, aged in their mid sixties, with FEV1 predicted normal between 40% and 50% and with substantial smoking histories (40+ pack-years). The risk of bias was generally low, although missing information made it hard to judge risk of selection bias and selective outcome reporting. Fixed effects were used for SGRQ analyses, and random effects for Trough FEV1 analyses, based on model fit statistics and deviance information criteria (DIC). SGRQ SGRQ data were available in 42 studies (n = 54,613). At six months, 39 pairwise comparisons were made between 18 treatments in 25 studies (n = 27,024). Combination LABA/ICS was the highest ranked intervention, with a mean improvement over placebo of -3.89 units at six months (95% credible interval (CrI) -4.70 to -2.97) and -3.60 at 12 months (95% CrI -4.63 to -2.34). LAMAs and LABAs were ranked second and third at six months, with mean differences of -2.63 (95% CrI -3.53 to -1.97) and -2.29 (95% CrI -3.18 to -1.53), respectively. Inhaled corticosteroids were ranked fourth (MD -2.00, 95% CrI -3.06 to -0.87). Class differences between LABA, LAMA and ICS were less prominent at 12 months. Indacaterol and aclidinium were ranked somewhat higher than other members of their classes, and formoterol 12 mcg, budesonide 400 mcg and formoterol/mometasone combination were ranked lower within their classes. There was considerable overlap in credible intervals and rankings for both classes and individual treatments. Trough FEV1 Trough FEV1 data were available in 46 studies (n = 47,409). At six months, 41 pairwise comparisons were made between 20 treatments in 31 studies (n = 29,271). As for SGRQ, combination LABA/ICS was the highest ranked class, with a mean improvement over placebo of 133.3 mL at six months (95% CrI 100.6 to 164.0) and slightly less at 12 months (mean difference (MD) 100, 95% CrI 55.5 to 140.1). LAMAs (MD 103.5, 95% CrI 81.8 to 124.9) and LABAs (MD 99.4, 95% CrI 72.0 to 127.8) showed roughly equivalent results at six months, and ICSs were the fourth ranked class (MD 65.4, 95% CrI 33.1 to 96.9). As with SGRQ, initial differences between classes were not so prominent at 12 months. Indacaterol and salmeterol/fluticasone were ranked slightly better than others in their class, and formoterol 12, aclidinium, budesonide and formoterol/budesonide combination were ranked lower within their classes. All credible intervals for individual rankings were wide. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This network meta-analysis compares four different classes of long-acting inhalers for people with COPD who need more than short-acting bronchodilators. Quality of life and lung function were improved most on combination inhalers (LABA and ICS) and least on ICS alone at 6 and at 12 months. Overall LAMA and LABA inhalers had similar effects, particularly at 12 months. The network has demonstrated the benefit of ICS when added to LABA for these outcomes in participants who largely had an FEV1 that was less than 50% predicted, but the additional expense of combination inhalers and any potential for increased adverse events (which has been established by other reviews) require consideration. Our findings are in keeping with current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines

Assessing agreement between malaria slide density readings

BACKGROUND: Several criteria have been used to assess agreement between replicate slide readings of malaria parasite density. Such criteria may be based on percent difference, or absolute difference, or a combination. Neither the rationale for choosing between these types of criteria, nor that for choosing the magnitude of difference which defines acceptable agreement, are clear. The current paper seeks a procedure which avoids the disadvantages of these current options and whose parameter values are more clearly justified. METHODS AND RESULTS: Variation of parasite density within a slide is expected, even when it has been prepared from a homogeneous sample. This places lower limits on sensitivity and observer agreement, quantified by the Poisson distribution. This means that, if a criterion of fixed percent difference criterion is used for satisfactory agreement, the number of discrepant readings is over-estimated at low parasite densities. With a criterion of fixed absolute difference, the same happens at high parasite densities. For an ideal slide, following the Poisson distribution, a criterion based on a constant difference in square root counts would apply for all densities. This can be back-transformed to a difference in absolute counts, which, as expected, gives a wider range of acceptable agreement at higher average densities. In an example dataset from Tanzania, observed differences in square root counts correspond to a 95% limits of agreement of -2,800 and +2,500 parasites/microl at average density of 2,000 parasites/microl, and -6,200 and +5,700 parasites/microl at 10,000 parasites/microl. However, there were more outliers beyond those ranges at higher densities, meaning that actual coverage of these ranges was not a constant 95%, but decreased with density. In a second study, a trial of microscopist training, the corresponding ranges of agreement are wider and asymmetrical: -8,600 to +5,200/microl, and -19,200 to +11,700/microl, respectively. By comparison, the optimal limits of agreement, corresponding to Poisson variation, are +/- 780 and +/- 1,800 parasites/microl, respectively. The focus of this approach on the volume of blood read leads to other conclusions. For example, no matter how large a volume of blood is read, some densities are too low to be reliably detected, which in turn means that disagreements on slide positivity may simply result from within-slide variation, rather than reading errors. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed method defines limits of acceptable agreement in a way which allows for the natural increase in variability with parasite density. This includes defining the levels of between-reader variability, which are consistent with random variation: disagreements within these limits should not trigger additional readings. This approach merits investigation in other settings, in order to determine both the extent of its applicability, and appropriate numerical values for limits of agreement

Web-based alcohol screening and brief intervention for Māori and non-Māori: the New Zealand e-SBINZ trials

BACKGROUND: Hazardous alcohol consumption is a leading modifiable cause of mortality and morbidity among young people. Screening and brief intervention (SBI) is a key strategy to reduce alcohol-related harm in the community, and web-based approaches (e-SBI) have advantages over practitioner-delivered approaches, being cheaper, more acceptable, administrable remotely and infinitely scalable. An efficacy trial in a university population showed a 10-minute intervention could reduce drinking by 11% for 6 months or more among 17-24 year-old undergraduate hazardous drinkers. The e-SBINZ study is designed to examine the effectiveness of e-SBI across a range of universities and among Māori and non-Māori students in New Zealand. METHODS/DESIGN: The e-SBINZ study comprises two parallel, double blind, multi-site, individually randomised controlled trials. This paper outlines the background and design of the trial, which is recruiting 17-24 year-old students from seven of New Zealand's eight universities. Māori and non-Māori students are being sampled separately and are invited by e-mail to complete a web questionnaire including the AUDIT-C. Those who score >4 will be randomly allocated to no further contact until follow-up (control) or to assessment and personalised feedback (intervention) via computer. Follow-up assessment will occur 5 months later in second semester. Recruitment, consent, randomisation, intervention and follow-up are all online. Primary outcomes are (i) total alcohol consumption, (ii) frequency of drinking, (iii) amount consumed per typical drinking occasion, (iv) the proportions exceeding medical guidelines for acute and chronic harm, and (v) scores on an academic problems scale. DISCUSSION: The trial will provide information on the effectiveness of e-SBI in reducing hazardous alcohol consumption across diverse university student populations with separate effect estimates for Māori and non-Māori students. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12610000279022

Understanding Variation in Sets of N-of-1 Trials.

A recent paper in this journal by Chen and Chen has used computer simulations to examine a number of approaches to analysing sets of n-of-1 trials. We have examined such designs using a more theoretical approach based on considering the purpose of analysis and the structure as regards randomisation that the design uses. We show that different purposes require different analyses and that these in turn may produce quite different results. Our approach to incorporating the randomisation employed when the purpose is to test a null hypothesis of strict equality of the treatment makes use of Nelder's theory of general balance. However, where the purpose is to make inferences about the effects for individual patients, we show that a mixed model is needed. There are strong parallels to the difference between fixed and random effects meta-analyses and these are discussed

Time-course of exercise and its association with 12-month bone changes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Exercise has been shown to have positive effects on bone density and strength. However, knowledge of the time-course of exercise and bone changes is scarce due to lack of methods to quantify and qualify daily physical activity in long-term. The aim was to evaluate the association between exercise intensity at 3, 6 and 12 month intervals and 12-month changes in upper femur areal bone mineral density (aBMD) and mid-femur geometry in healthy premenopausal women.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Physical activity was continuously assessed with a waist-worn accelerometer in 35 healthy women (35-40 years) participating in progressive high-impact training. To describe exercise intensity, individual average daily numbers of impacts were calculated at five acceleration levels (range 0.3-9.2 <it>g</it>) during time intervals of 0-3, 0-6, and 0-12 months. Proximal femur aBMD was measured with dual x-ray absorptiometry and mid-femur geometry was evaluated with quantitative computed tomography at the baseline and after 12 months. Physical activity data were correlated with yearly changes in bone density and geometry, and adjusted for confounding factors and impacts at later months of the trial using multivariate analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Femoral neck aBMD changes were significantly correlated with 6 and 12 months' impact activity at high intensity levels (> 3.9 <it>g</it>, <it>r </it>being up to 0.42). Trochanteric aBMD changes were associated even with first three months of exercise exceeding 1.1 <it>g </it>(<it>r </it>= 0.39-0.59, <it>p </it>< 0.05). Similarly, mid-femoral cortical bone geometry changes were related to even first three months' activity (<it>r </it>= 0.38-0.52, <it>p </it>< 0.05). In multivariate analysis, 0-3 months' activity did not correlate with bone change at any site after adjusting for impacts at later months. Instead, 0-6 months' impacts were significant correlates of 12-month changes in femoral neck and trochanter aBMD, mid-femur bone circumference and cortical bone attenuation even after adjustment. No significant correlations were found at the proximal or distal tibia.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The number of high acceleration impacts during 6 months of training was positively associated with 12-month bone changes at the femoral neck, trochanter and mid-femur. These results can be utilized when designing feasible training programs to prevent bone loss in premenopausal women.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Clinical trials.gov NCT00697957</p

A Morphometric Assessment of the Intended Function of Cached Clovis Points

A number of functions have been proposed for cached Clovis points. The least complicated hypothesis is that they were intended to arm hunting weapons. It has also been argued that they were produced for use in rituals or in connection with costly signaling displays. Lastly, it has been suggested that some cached Clovis points may have been used as saws. Here we report a study in which we morphometrically compared Clovis points from caches with Clovis points recovered from kill and camp sites to test two predictions of the hypothesis that cached Clovis points were intended to arm hunting weapons: 1) cached points should be the same shape as, but generally larger than, points from kill/camp sites, and 2) cached points and points from kill/camp sites should follow the same allometric trajectory. The results of the analyses are consistent with both predictions and therefore support the hypothesis. A follow-up review of the fit between the results of the analyses and the predictions of the other hypotheses indicates that the analyses support only the hunting equipment hypothesis. We conclude from this that cached Clovis points were likely produced with the intention of using them to arm hunting weapons