Simulations of Arctic ozone depletion with current and doubled levels of CO2

Results from idealized 3-D simulations of a dynamical-radiative-photochemical model of the stratosphere are presented for the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring. For a simulation of a quiescent winter, it is found that with current levels of CO2 only modest polar ozone depletion occurs, consistent with observations. For a second simulation with the same planetary wave amplitudes in the upper troposphere but with doubled CO2, the model predicts a northern hemisphere ozone hole comparable to that observed in Antarctica with almost complete ozone destruction at 20 km. Reasons for the marked difference between the simulations are identified

The Met Office HadGEM3-ES chemistry–climate model: evaluation of stratospheric dynamics and its impact on ozone

Free-running and nudged versions of a Met Office chemistry–climate model are evaluated and used to investigate the impact of dynamics versus transport and chemistry within the model on the simulated evolution of stratospheric ozone. Metrics of the dynamical processes relevant for simulating stratospheric ozone are calculated, and the free-running model is found to outperform the previous model version in 10 of the 14 metrics. In particular, large biases in stratospheric transport and tropical tropopause temperature, which existed in the previous model version, are substantially reduced, making the current model more suitable for the simulation of stratospheric ozone. The spatial structure of the ozone hole, the area of polar stratospheric clouds, and the increased ozone concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere following sudden stratospheric warmings, were all found to be sensitive to the accuracy of the dynamics and were better simulated in the nudged model than in the free-running model. Whilst nudging can, in general, provide a useful tool for removing the influence of dynamical biases from the evolution of chemical fields, this study shows that issues can remain in the climatology of nudged models. Significant biases in stratospheric vertical velocities, age of air, water vapour, and total column ozone still exist in the Met Office nudged model. Further, these can lead to biases in the downward flux of ozone into the troposphere

An unexpected disruption of the atmospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate

Aeolus wind lidar observations of the 2019/2020 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation disruption with comparison to radiosondes and reanalysis

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was unexpectedly disrupted for only the second time in the historical record during the 2019/20 boreal winter. As the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the tropical stratosphere, and a significant source of seasonal predictability globally, understanding the drivers behind this unusual behaviour is very important. Here, novel data from Aeolus, the first Doppler wind lidar in space, is used to observe the 2019/20 QBO disruption. Aeolus is the first satellite able to observe winds at high resolution on a global scale, and is therefore a uniquely capable platform for studying the evolution of the disruption and the broader circulation changes triggered by it. This study therefore contains the first direct wind observations of the QBO from space, and exploits measurements from a special Aeolus scanning mode, implemented to observe this disruption as it happened. Aeolus observes easterly winds of up to 20 ms&minus;1 in the core of the disruption jet during July 2020. By co-locating with radiosonde measurements from Singapore and ERA5 reanalysis, like-for-like comparisons of the observed wind structures in the tropical stratosphere are produced, showing equatorial Kelvin wave activity and key parts of the Walker Circulation during the disruption period. The onset of the disruption easterly jet occurs 5 days earlier in Aeolus observations compared with the reanalysis. This analysis highlights how Aeolus and future Doppler wind lidar satellites can deepen our understanding of the QBO, its disruptions, and the tropical upper-troposphere lower-stratosphere region more generally.</p

Extratropical age of air trends and causative factors in climate projection simulations

Climate model simulations show an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) in response to climate change. While the general mechanisms for the BDC strengthening are widely understood, there are still open questions concerning the influence of the details of the wave driving. Mean age of stratospheric air (AoA) is a useful transport diagnostic for assessing changes in the BDC. Analyzing AoA from a subset of Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative part 1 climate projection simulations, we find a remarkable agreement between most of the models in simulating the largest negative AoA trends in the extratropical lower to middle stratosphere of both hemispheres (approximately between 20 and 25 geopotential kilometers (gpkm) and 20–50∘ N and S). We show that the occurrence of AoA trend minima in those regions is directly related to the climatological AoA distribution, which is sensitive to an upward shift of the circulation in response to climate change. Also other factors like a reduction of aging by mixing (AbM) and residual circulation transit times (RCTTs) contribute to the AoA distribution changes by widening the AoA isolines. Furthermore, we analyze the time evolution of AbM and RCTT trends in the extratropics and examine the connection to possible drivers focusing on local residual circulation strength, net tropical upwelling and wave driving. However, after the correction for a vertical shift of pressure levels, we find only seasonally significant trends of residual circulation strength and zonal mean wave forcing (resolved and unresolved) without a clear relation between the trends of the analyzed quantities. This indicates that additional causative factors may influence the AoA, RCTT and AbM trends. In this study, we postulate that the shrinkage of the stratosphere has the potential to influence the RCTT and AbM trends and thereby cause additional AoA changes over time.Czech Science Foundation (GACˇ R) | Ref. 16- 01562JCzech Science Foundation (GACˇ R) | Ref. 18-01625SMinisterio de Ciencia e Innovación | Ref. CGL2015-71575-PXunta de Galicia | Ref. ED481B 2018/103Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad | Ref. RYC-2013-1456

100 years of progress in understanding the stratosphere and mesosphere

The stratosphere contains ~17% of Earth’s atmospheric mass, but its existence was unknown until 1902. In the following decades our knowledge grew gradually as more observations of the stratosphere were made. In 1913 the ozone layer, which protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiation, was discovered. From ozone and water vapor observations, a first basic idea of a stratospheric general circulation was put forward. Since the 1950s our knowledge of the stratosphere and mesosphere has expanded rapidly, and the importance of this region in the climate system has become clear. With more observations, several new stratospheric phenomena have been discovered: the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole, and surface weather impacts of stratospheric variability. None of these phenomena were anticipated by theory. Advances in theory have more often than not been prompted by unexplained phenomena seen in new stratospheric observations. From the 1960s onward, the importance of dynamical processes and the coupled stratosphere–troposphere circulation was realized. Since approximately 2000, better representations of the stratosphere—and even the mesosphere—have been included in climate and weather forecasting models. We now know that in order to produce accurate seasonal weather forecasts, and to predict long-term changes in climate and the future evolution of the ozone layer, models with a well-resolved stratosphere with realistic dynamics and chemistry are necessary

Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction

Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. Here, we show how changes in stratospheric circulation could play a significant role in future climate change in the extratropics through an additional shift in the tropospheric circulation. This shift in the circulation alters climate change in regional winter rainfall by an amount large enough to significantly alter regional climate change projections. The changes are consistent with changes in stratospheric winds inducing a change in the baroclinic eddy growth rate across the depth of the troposphere. A change in mean wind structure and an equatorward shift of the tropospheric storm tracks relative to models with poor stratospheric resolution allows coupling with surface climate. Using the Atlantic storm track as an example, we show how this can double the predicted increase in extreme winter rainfall over Western and Central Europe compared to other current climate projection

Evidence for changes in stratospheric transport and mixing over the past three decades based on multiple data sets and tropical leaky pipe analysis

Variability in the strength of the stratospheric Lagrangian mean meridional or Brewer-Dobson circulation and horizontal mixing into the tropics over the past three decades are examined using observations of stratospheric mean age of air and ozone. We use a simple representation of the stratosphere, the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, guided by mean meridional circulation and horizontal mixing changes in several reanalyses data sets and chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations, to help elucidate reasons for the observed changes in stratospheric mean age and ozone. We find that the TLP model is able to accurately simulate multiyear variability in ozone following recent major volcanic eruptions and the early 2000s sea surface temperature changes, as well as the lasting impact on mean age of relatively short-term circulation perturbations. We also find that the best quantitative agreement with the observed mean age and ozone trends over the past three decades is found assuming a small strengthening of the mean circulation in the lower stratosphere, a moderate weakening of the mean circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere, and a moderate increase in the horizontal mixing into the tropics. The mean age trends are strongly sensitive to trends in the horizontal mixing into the tropics, and the uncertainty in the mixing trends causes uncertainty in the mean circulation trends. Comparisons of the mean circulation and mixing changes suggested by the measurements with those from a recent suite of CCM runs reveal significant differences that may have important implications on the accurate simulation of future stratospheric climate

Air quality evaluation of London Paddington train station

Enclosed railway stations hosting diesel trains are at risk of reduced air quality as a result of exhaust emissions that may endanger passengers and workers. Air quality measurements were conducted inside London Paddington Station, a semi-enclosed railway station where 70% of trains are powered by diesel engines. Particulate matter (PM2.5) mass was measured at five station locations. PM size, PM number, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) were measured at two station locations. Paddington Station’s hourly mean PM2.5 mass concentrations averaged 16 μg/m3 [min 2, max 68]. Paddington Station’s hourly mean NO2 concentrations averaged 73 ppb [49, 120] and SO2 concentrations averaged 25 ppb [15, 37]. While UK train stations are not required to comply with air quality standards, there were five instances where the hourly mean NO2 concentrations exceeded the EU hourly mean limits (106 ppb) for outdoor air quality. PM2.5, SO2, and NO2 concentrations were compared against Marylebone, a busy London roadside 1.5 km from the station. The comparisons indicated that train station air quality was more polluted than the nearby roadside. PM2.5 for at least one measurement location within Paddington Station was shown to be statistically higher (P-value < 0.05) than Marylebone on 3 out of 4 days. Measured NO2 within Paddington Station was statistically higher than Marylebone on 4 out of 5 days. Measured SO2 within Paddington Station was statistically higher than Marylebone on all 3 days.We thank the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/F034350/1) for funding the Energy Efficient Cities Initiative and the Schiff Foundation for doctoral studentship funding.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from IOP via http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/09401

Chemistry–climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes

The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade21 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 Kdecade21 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces awestward acceleration of the lower-stratosphericwind over theAntarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade21 in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (;70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade21, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward acceleration of the subtropical jets, which increases the upward flux of (parameterized) momentum reaching the lower stratosphere in these latitudes