Understanding Errors in EIA Projections of Energy Demand

This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to midterm projections of energy demand as measured in physical quantities. Overall, based on an analysis of the EIA’s 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year over the one- to five-year projection horizon after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For the 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the error patterns over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility natural gas, transportation distillate, and residential electricity all show significant biases, on average, across the full five year projection horizon examined. Projections for certain other fuels/consuming sectors have significant unexplained errors for selected time horizons. Independent evaluation of this type can be useful for validating ongoing analytic efforts and for prioritizing future model revisions.EIA, energy forecasting, bias

Improving the Accuracy of UK Regulatory Cost Estimates

UK Government departments are required to undertake a Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA) when introducing any policy change that places a burden on businesses, charities, the voluntary sector or individuals. Part of this assessment involves the appraisal of the costs (and benefits) associated with complying with all the available options, as well as the wider economic costs. Recent evidence has suggested that the compliance costs, when assessed ex post, tend to be lower than the ex ante assessment made beforehand (see e.g. Harrington et al 1999). Accurate cost estimates are important as errors can lead to under or over regulation. This, in turn, can result in growth and innovation being hindered or, in the case of under regulation, growth being achieved at the expense of the natural resource base (including human health and well being). In order to shed more light on the validity of RIA cost estimates and identify ways of improving their accuracy, Defra decided to commission a study comparing the ex ante and ex post costs of complying with regulatory changes. A total of eight case studies were carried out for this study, covering a range of recent environmental, agricultural and food-related regulations in the UK. Preliminary findings of this study indicate that while ex ante costs are often overestimated, there can also be significant underestimates. Reasons for errors in cost estimation are discussed and strategies for improving their accuracy suggested.Public Economics,

Implementation of U.K. Earth system models for CMIP6

We describe the scientific and technical implementation of two models for a core set of experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The models used are the physical atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice model HadGEM3-GC3.1 and the Earth system model UKESM1 which adds a carbon-nitrogen cycle and atmospheric chemistry to HadGEM3-GC3.1. The model results are constrained by the external boundary conditions (forcing data) and initial conditions.We outline the scientific rationale and assumptions made in specifying these. Notable details of the implementation include an ozone redistribution scheme for prescribed ozone simulations (HadGEM3-GC3.1) to avoid inconsistencies with the model's thermal tropopause, and land use change in dynamic vegetation simulations (UKESM1) whose influence will be subject to potential biases in the simulation of background natural vegetation.We discuss the implications of these decisions for interpretation of the simulation results. These simulations are expensive in terms of human and CPU resources and will underpin many further experiments; we describe some of the technical steps taken to ensure their scientific robustness and reproducibility

New Modularity of DAP-Kinases: Alternative Splicing of the DRP-1 Gene Produces a ZIPk-Like Isoform

DRP-1 and ZIPk are two members of the Death Associated Protein Ser/Thr Kinase (DAP-kinase) family, which function in different settings of cell death including autophagy. DAP kinases are very similar in their catalytic domains but differ substantially in their extra-catalytic domains. This difference is crucial for the significantly different modes of regulation and function among DAP kinases. Here we report the identification of a novel alternatively spliced kinase isoform of the DRP-1 gene, termed DRP-1β. The alternative splicing event replaces the whole extra catalytic domain of DRP-1 with a single coding exon that is closely related to the sequence of the extra catalytic domain of ZIPk. As a consequence, DRP-1β lacks the calmodulin regulatory domain of DRP-1, and instead contains a leucine zipper-like motif similar to the protein binding region of ZIPk. Several functional assays proved that this new isoform retained the biochemical and cellular properties that are common to DRP-1 and ZIPk, including myosin light chain phosphorylation, and activation of membrane blebbing and autophagy. In addition, DRP-1β also acquired binding to the ATF4 transcription factor, a feature characteristic of ZIPk but not DRP-1. Thus, a splicing event of the DRP-1 produces a ZIPk like isoform. DRP-1β is highly conserved in evolution, present in all known vertebrate DRP-1 loci. We detected the corresponding mRNA and protein in embryonic mouse brains and in human embryonic stem cells thus confirming the in vivo utilization of this isoform. The discovery of module conservation within the DAPk family members illustrates a parsimonious way to increase the functional complexity within protein families. It also provides crucial data for modeling the expansion and evolution of DAP kinase proteins within vertebrates, suggesting that DRP-1 and ZIPk most likely evolved from their ancient ancestor gene DAPk by two gene duplication events that occurred close to the emergence of vertebrates

Mouthwash use and cancer of the head and neck: a pooled analysis from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium (INHANCE)

Most mouthwashes contain alcohol, a known cause of head and neck cancer (oral cavity, pharynx, larynx), likely through the carcinogenic activity of acetaldehyde, formed in the oral cavity from alcohol. We carried out a pooled analysis of 8981 cases of head and neck cancer and 10090 controls from 12 case-control studies with comparable information on mouthwash use in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium. Logistic regression was used to assess the association of mouthwash use with cancers of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, and larynx, adjusting for study, age, sex, pack-years of tobacco smoking, number of alcoholic drinks/day, and education. Compared with never users of mouthwash, the odds ratio (OR) of all head and neck cancers was 1.01 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.94-1.08] for ever users, based on 12 studies. The corresponding ORs of cancer of the oral cavity and oropharynx were 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00-1.23) and 1.28 (95% CI: 1.06-1.56), respectively. OR for all head and neck cancer was 1.15 (95% CI: 1.01-1.30) for use for more than 35 years, based on seven studies (P for linear trend=0.01), and OR 1.31 (95% CI: 1.09-1.58) for use more than one per day, based on five studies (P for linear trend <0.001). Although limited by the retrospective nature of the study and the limited ability to assess risks of mouthwash use in nonusers of tobacco and alcohol, this large investigation shows potential risks for head and neck cancer subsites and in long-term and frequent users of mouthwash. This pooled analysis provides the most precise estimate of the association between mouthwash use and head and neck cancer

Acquired resistance to oxaliplatin is not directly associated with increased resistance to DNA damage in SK-N-ASrOXALI4000, a newly established oxaliplatin-resistant sub-line of the neuroblastoma cell line SK-N-AS

The formation of acquired drug resistance is a major reason for the failure of anti-cancer therapies after initial response. Here, we introduce a novel model of acquired oxaliplatin resistance, a sub-line of the non-MYCN-amplified neuroblastoma cell line SK-N-AS that was adapted to growth in the presence of 4000 ng/mL oxaliplatin (SK-N-ASrOXALI4000). SK-N-ASrOXALI4000 cells displayed enhanced chromosomal aberrations compared to SK-N-AS, as indicated by 24-chromosome fluorescence in situ hybridisation. Moreover, SK-N-ASrOXALI4000 cells were resistant not only to oxaliplatin but also to the two other commonly used anti-cancer platinum agents cisplatin and carboplatin. SK-N-ASrOXALI4000 cells exhibited a stable resistance phenotype that was not affected by culturing the cells for 10 weeks in the absence of oxaliplatin. Interestingly, SK-N-ASrOXALI4000 cells showed no cross resistance to gemcitabine and increased sensitivity to doxorubicin and UVC radiation, alternative treatments that like platinum drugs target DNA integrity. Notably, UVC-induced DNA damage is thought to be predominantly repaired by nucleotide excision repair and nucleotide excision repair has been described as the main oxaliplatin-induced DNA damage repair system. SK-N-ASrOXALI4000 cells were also more sensitive to lysis by influenza A virus, a candidate for oncolytic therapy, than SK-N-AS cells. In conclusion, we introduce a novel oxaliplatin resistance model. The oxaliplatin resistance mechanisms in SK-N-ASrOXALI4000 cells appear to be complex and not to directly depend on enhanced DNA repair capacity. Models of oxaliplatin resistance are of particular relevance since research on platinum drugs has so far predominantly focused on cisplatin and carboplatin

Ancillary human health benefits of improved air quality resulting from climate change mitigation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies can provide ancillary benefits in terms of short-term improvements in air quality and associated health benefits. Several studies have analyzed the ancillary impacts of GHG policies for a variety of locations, pollutants, and policies. In this paper we review the existing evidence on ancillary health benefits relating to air pollution from various GHG strategies and provide a framework for such analysis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We evaluate techniques used in different stages of such research for estimation of: (1) changes in air pollutant concentrations; (2) avoided adverse health endpoints; and (3) economic valuation of health consequences. The limitations and merits of various methods are examined. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for ancillary benefits analysis and related research gaps in the relevant disciplines.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that to date most assessments have focused their analysis more heavily on one aspect of the framework (e.g., economic analysis). While a wide range of methods was applied to various policies and regions, results from multiple studies provide strong evidence that the short-term public health and economic benefits of ancillary benefits related to GHG mitigation strategies are substantial. Further, results of these analyses are likely to be underestimates because there are a number of important unquantified health and economic endpoints.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Remaining challenges include integrating the understanding of the relative toxicity of particulate matter by components or sources, developing better estimates of public health and environmental impacts on selected sub-populations, and devising new methods for evaluating heretofore unquantified and non-monetized benefits.</p

Measurement of the W-boson mass in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the mass of the W boson is presented based on proton–proton collision data recorded in 2011 at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC, and corresponding to 4.6 fb−1 of integrated luminosity. The selected data sample consists of 7.8×106 candidates in the W→μν channel and 5.9×106 candidates in the W→eν channel. The W-boson mass is obtained from template fits to the reconstructed distributions of the charged lepton transverse momentum and of the W boson transverse mass in the electron and muon decay channels, yielding mW=80370±7 (stat.)±11(exp. syst.) ±14(mod. syst.) MeV =80370±19MeV, where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second corresponds to the experimental systematic uncertainty, and the third to the physics-modelling systematic uncertainty. A measurement of the mass difference between the W+ and W−bosons yields mW+−mW−=−29±28 MeV

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements