Constructing a comprehensive disaster resilience index: The case of Italy

Measuring disaster resilience is a key component of successful disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Quantitative, indicator-based assessments are typically applied to evaluate resilience by combining various indicators of performance into a single composite index. Building upon extensive research on social vulnerability and coping/adaptive capacity, we first develop an original, comprehensive disaster resilience index (CDRI) at municipal level across Italy, to support the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. As next, we perform extensive sensitivity and robustness analysis to assess how various methodological choices, especially the normalisation and aggregation methods applied, influence the ensuing rankings. The results show patterns of social vulnerability and resilience with sizeable variability across the northern and southern regions. We propose several statistical methods to allow decision makers to explore the territorial, social and economic disparities, and choose aggregation methods best suitable for the various policy purposes. These methods are based on linear and nonliner normalization approaches combining the OWA and LSP aggregators. Robust resilience rankings are determined by relative dominance across multiple methods. The dominance measures can be used as a decision-making benchmark for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management strategies and plans

Climate risk index for Italy.

We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'

Improving flood damage assessment models in Italy

Flood damage assessments are often based on stage-damage curve (SDC) models that estimate economic damage as a function of flood characteristics (typically flood depths) and land use. SDCs are developed through a site-specific analysis, but are rarely adjusted to economic circumstances in areas to which they are applied. In Italy, assessments confide in SDC models developed elsewhere, even if empirical damage reports are collected after every major flood event. In this paper, we have tested, adapted and extended an up-to-date SDC model using flood records from Northern Italy. The model calibration is underpinned by empirical data from compensation records. Our analysis takes into account both damage to physical assets and losses due to foregone production, the latter being measured amidst the spatially distributed gross added value

Search for anomalous couplings in the W tb vertex from the measurement of double differential angular decay rates of single top quarks produced in the t-channel with the ATLAS detector

The electroweak production and subsequent decay of single top quarks is determined by the properties of the Wtb vertex. This vertex can be described by the complex parameters of an effective Lagrangian. An analysis of angular distributions of the decay products of single top quarks produced in the t -channel constrains these parameters simultaneously. The analysis described in this paper uses 4.6 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s =7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Two parameters are measured simultaneously in this analysis. The fraction f 1 of decays containing transversely polarised W bosons is measured to be 0.37 ± 0.07 (stat.⊕syst.). The phase δ − between amplitudes for transversely and longitudinally polarised W bosons recoiling against left-handed b-quarks is measured to be −0.014π ± 0.036π (stat.⊕syst.). The correlation in the measurement of these parameters is 0.15. These values result in two-dimensional limits at the 95% confidence level on the ratio of the complex coupling parameters g R and V L, yielding Re[g R /V L] ∈ [−0.36, 0.10] and Im[g R /V L] ∈ [−0.17, 0.23] with a correlation of 0.11. The results are in good agreement with the predictions of the Standard Model

Search for strong gravity in multijet final states produced in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV using the ATLAS detector at the LHC

A search is conducted for new physics in multijet final states using 3.6 inverse femtobarns of data from proton-proton collisions at √s = 13TeV taken at the CERN Large Hadron Collider with the ATLAS detector. Events are selected containing at least three jets with scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT) greater than 1TeV. No excess is seen at large HT and limits are presented on new physics: models which produce final states containing at least three jets and having cross sections larger than 1.6 fb with HT > 5.8 TeV are excluded. Limits are also given in terms of new physics models of strong gravity that hypothesize additional space-time dimensions

Muon reconstruction performance of the ATLAS detector in proton–proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV

This article documents the performance of the ATLAS muon identification and reconstruction using the LHC dataset recorded at √s = 13 TeV in 2015. Using a large sample of J/ψ→μμ and Z→μμ decays from 3.2 fb−1 of pp collision data, measurements of the reconstruction efficiency, as well as of the momentum scale and resolution, are presented and compared to Monte Carlo simulations. The reconstruction efficiency is measured to be close to 99% over most of the covered phase space (|η| 2.2, the pT resolution for muons from Z→μμ decays is 2.9 % while the precision of the momentum scale for low-pT muons from J/ψ→μμ decays is about 0.2%

Measurement of the dependence of transverse energy production at large pseudorapidity on the hard-scattering kinematics of proton-proton collisions at √s=2.76 TeV with ATLAS

The relationship between jet production in the central region and the underlying-event activity in a pseudorapidity-separated region is studied in 4.0 pb-1 of s=2.76 TeV pp collision data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The underlying event is characterised through measurements of the average value of the sum of the transverse energy at large pseudorapidity downstream of one of the protons, which are reported here as a function of hard-scattering kinematic variables. The hard scattering is characterised by the average transverse momentum and pseudorapidity of the two highest transverse momentum jets in the event. The dijet kinematics are used to estimate, on an event-by-event basis, the scaled longitudinal momenta of the hard-scattered partons in the target and projectile beam-protons moving toward and away from the region measuring transverse energy, respectively. Transverse energy production at large pseudorapidity is observed to decrease with a linear dependence on the longitudinal momentum fraction in the target proton and to depend only weakly on that in the projectile proton. The results are compared to the predictions of various Monte Carlo event generators, which qualitatively reproduce the trends observed in data but generally underpredict the overall level of transverse energy at forward pseudorapidity

Search for a new resonance decaying to a W or Z boson and a Higgs boson in the ll/lv/vv + bb final states with the ATLAS detector

A search for a new resonance decaying to a W or Z boson and a Higgs boson in the ll/lv/vv + bb final states is performed using 20.3 fb −1 of pp collision data recorded at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is conducted by examining the W H / Z H invariant mass distribution for a localized excess. No significant deviation from the Standard Model background prediction is observed. The results are interpreted in terms of constraints on the Minimal Walking Technicolor model and on a simplified approach based on a phenomenological Lagrangian of Heavy Vector Triplets

Probing lepton flavour violation via neutrinoless τ⟶3μ decays with the ATLAS detector

This article presents the sensitivity of the ATLAS experiment to the lepton-flavour-violating decays of τ→3μ. A method utilising the production of τ leptons via W→τν decays is used. This method is applied to the sample of 20.3 fb −¹ of pp collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in 2012. No event is observed passing the selection criteria, and the observed (expected) upper limit on the τ lepton branching fraction into three muons, Br(τ→3μ) is 3.76×10−7 (3.94×10 −7) at 90 % confidence level

A search for tt̄ resonances using lepton-plus-jets events in proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for new particles that decay into top quark pairs is reported. The search is performed with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC using an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−¹ of proton-proton collision data collected at a centre-of-mass energy of √s=8 TeV. The lepton-plus-jets final state is used, where the top pair decays to W+bW−b̄, with one W boson decaying leptonically and the other hadronically. The invariant mass spectrum of top quark pairs is examined for local excesses or deficits that are inconsistent with the Standard Model predictions. No evidence for a top quark pair resonance is found, and 95% confidence-level limits on the production rate are determined for massive states in benchmark models. The upper limits on the cross-section times branching ratio of a narrow Z′ boson decaying to top pairs range from 4.2 pb to 0.03 pb for resonance masses from 0.4 TeV to 3.0 TeV. A narrow leptophobic topcolour Z′ boson with mass below 1.8 TeV is excluded. Upper limits are set on the cross-section times branching ratio for a broad colour-octet resonance with Γ/m = 15% decaying to tt̄. These range from 4.8 pb to 0.03 pb for masses from 0.4 TeV to 3.0 TeV. A Kaluza-Klein excitation of the gluon in a Randall-Sundrum model is excluded for masses below 2.2 TeV