Ökologische Inferenz und hybride Modelle

Diese Arbeit widmet sich Methoden zur Schätzung von Wählerwanderungen in Mehrparteiensystemen. Die Schätzung kann dabei anhand von Individual- und/oder Aggregatdaten erfolgen. In dieser Arbeit wird sich auf Verfahren konzentriert, bei denen die Schätzung (auch) mit Aggregatdaten erfolgt. Bei der ökologischen Inferenz werden nur Aggregatdaten verwendet, während hybride Modelle Individual- und Aggregatdaten nutzen. Aus beiden Modellklassen werden in dieser Arbeit Modelle für die Schätzung von Wählerwanderung vorgestellt. Ziel der Arbeit ist die Vorstellung und Evaluierung der Modelle. Es zeigt sich, dass die Anwendung der ökologischen Inferenz nicht ohne Probleme ist. Es ist möglich mehrere alternative Wählerwanderungen zu schätzen, die sich zum Teil deutlich unterscheiden. Ein grundlegendes Problem ist auch die Frage nach dem besten Modell. Mit einer umfangreichen Simulationsstudie wird gezeigt, dass die Modelle unterschiedlich gut geeignet sind. Die insgesamt beste Schätzgüte unter den verglichenen Modellen kann mit dem Multinomial-Dirichlet Modell erreicht werden. Bei den hybriden Modellen wird neben den hybriden Multinomial-Normal Modell auch das neue hybride Multinomial-Dirichlet Modell betrachtet. Bei der Evaluierung der Modelle zeigt sich, dass die Schätzgüte mit den hybriden Modellen besser ist. Dies gilt im Vergleich zur ökologischen Inferenz und fast immer zur Hochrechnungen. Weiterhin wird gezeigt, dass bereits mit wenig Individualdaten und in kleineren Regionen auch mit spezifischen Vorwissen die Schätzgüte verbessert werden kann. Eine Überprüfung der Kredibilitätsintervalle beim Multinomial-Dirichlet Modell zeigt jedoch eine nur unzureichende Überdeckung. Mit einem auf parametrischen Bootstrap basierenden Korrekturverfahren kann eine deutliche Verbesserung erreicht, das Problem aber nicht gelöst werden. Bei der Betrachtung der praktischen Anwendung zeigen sich weitere Problemfelder. Bei den Aggregatdaten nimmt die Datenaufbereitung eine wichtige Rolle ein. Besonders relevante Punkte werden mit einer Simulationsstudie identifiziert. Anhand der Münchner Nachwahlbefragung wird auf wichtige Aspekte bei der Erhebung und mögliche Probleme mit den Individualdaten eingegangen. Dies umfasst eine Diskussion des beobachteten Antwortverhaltens. Bei der Schätzung der Wählerwanderung zwischen den Bundestagswahlen 2009 und 2013 in München zeigt sich die Eignung des hybriden Multinomial-Dirichlet Modells in der praktischen Anwendung. Die Ergebnisse belegen, dass die FDP vor allem an die CSU und die Grünen an die SPD Wähler verloren haben. Die erstmals angetretene AfD konnte von fast allen Parteien Wähler gewinnen.This thesis addresses methods suitable for estimating voter transitions in multi-party systems. The estimation can be either based on individual-level data and/or aggregate data; in this thesis, only methods using (also) aggregate data for the estimation will be considered. The ecological inference only employs aggregate data, while hybrid models use both individual-level and aggregate data. Methods that can be used for estimating voter transitions from both classes of models are introduced. The aim of this thesis is to present and evaluate these models. It becomes evident that it is not possible to use the ecological inference without difficulties. Multiple alternative voter transitions can be estimated, and some of them are quite different from each other. The question “which model is the best” is also an essential problem. It is possible to show that the different models exhibit different suitability using an extensive simulation study. The overall best estimation quality of all compared models can be achieved with the multinomial-Dirichlet model. Of the hybrid models, the new hybrid multinomial-Dirichlet model is considered, along with the hybrid multinomial-normal model. The evaluation of these two models shows that the estimation quality of hybrid models is superior to the one that can be achieved with ecological inference, but also almost always better than the estimation quality achieved with individual-level data. Moreover, the estimation can be improved using a relatively low amount of individual-level data, or even with specific prior knowledge in smaller regions. However, an examination of the credibility intervals from the multinomial-Dirichlet model reveals that the coverage rate is too low. While a clear improvement of the coverage rate can be achieved using a correction procedure based on parametric bootstrap, the problem is not solved completely. A consideration of the practical application of these models reveals further problem areas. The pre-processing of the data holds an important role. The most important aspects of data pre-processing are identified with a simulation study. Important issues related to the gathering of individual-level data are discussed using the Munich Exit-Poll study. This discussion also encompasses the answer pattern and the non-response rates. The estimation of the voter transition for Munich between the federal elections in 2009 and 2013 demonstrates the suitability of the hybrid multinomial-Dirichlet model in a practical application. The results show that the liberal party (FDP) lost mainly to the conservative party (CSU), and the Green Party (Die Grünen) lost primarily to the social democrats (SPD). The first time running new right party AfD attracted voters from almost all other parties

Ökologische Inferenz und hybride Modelle

Diese Arbeit widmet sich Methoden zur Schätzung von Wählerwanderungen in Mehrparteiensystemen. Die Schätzung kann dabei anhand von Individual- und/oder Aggregatdaten erfolgen. In dieser Arbeit wird sich auf Verfahren konzentriert, bei denen die Schätzung (auch) mit Aggregatdaten erfolgt. Bei der ökologischen Inferenz werden nur Aggregatdaten verwendet, während hybride Modelle Individual- und Aggregatdaten nutzen. Aus beiden Modellklassen werden in dieser Arbeit Modelle für die Schätzung von Wählerwanderung vorgestellt. Ziel der Arbeit ist die Vorstellung und Evaluierung der Modelle. Es zeigt sich, dass die Anwendung der ökologischen Inferenz nicht ohne Probleme ist. Es ist möglich mehrere alternative Wählerwanderungen zu schätzen, die sich zum Teil deutlich unterscheiden. Ein grundlegendes Problem ist auch die Frage nach dem besten Modell. Mit einer umfangreichen Simulationsstudie wird gezeigt, dass die Modelle unterschiedlich gut geeignet sind. Die insgesamt beste Schätzgüte unter den verglichenen Modellen kann mit dem Multinomial-Dirichlet Modell erreicht werden. Bei den hybriden Modellen wird neben den hybriden Multinomial-Normal Modell auch das neue hybride Multinomial-Dirichlet Modell betrachtet. Bei der Evaluierung der Modelle zeigt sich, dass die Schätzgüte mit den hybriden Modellen besser ist. Dies gilt im Vergleich zur ökologischen Inferenz und fast immer zur Hochrechnungen. Weiterhin wird gezeigt, dass bereits mit wenig Individualdaten und in kleineren Regionen auch mit spezifischen Vorwissen die Schätzgüte verbessert werden kann. Eine Überprüfung der Kredibilitätsintervalle beim Multinomial-Dirichlet Modell zeigt jedoch eine nur unzureichende Überdeckung. Mit einem auf parametrischen Bootstrap basierenden Korrekturverfahren kann eine deutliche Verbesserung erreicht, das Problem aber nicht gelöst werden. Bei der Betrachtung der praktischen Anwendung zeigen sich weitere Problemfelder. Bei den Aggregatdaten nimmt die Datenaufbereitung eine wichtige Rolle ein. Besonders relevante Punkte werden mit einer Simulationsstudie identifiziert. Anhand der Münchner Nachwahlbefragung wird auf wichtige Aspekte bei der Erhebung und mögliche Probleme mit den Individualdaten eingegangen. Dies umfasst eine Diskussion des beobachteten Antwortverhaltens. Bei der Schätzung der Wählerwanderung zwischen den Bundestagswahlen 2009 und 2013 in München zeigt sich die Eignung des hybriden Multinomial-Dirichlet Modells in der praktischen Anwendung. Die Ergebnisse belegen, dass die FDP vor allem an die CSU und die Grünen an die SPD Wähler verloren haben. Die erstmals angetretene AfD konnte von fast allen Parteien Wähler gewinnen.This thesis addresses methods suitable for estimating voter transitions in multi-party systems. The estimation can be either based on individual-level data and/or aggregate data; in this thesis, only methods using (also) aggregate data for the estimation will be considered. The ecological inference only employs aggregate data, while hybrid models use both individual-level and aggregate data. Methods that can be used for estimating voter transitions from both classes of models are introduced. The aim of this thesis is to present and evaluate these models. It becomes evident that it is not possible to use the ecological inference without difficulties. Multiple alternative voter transitions can be estimated, and some of them are quite different from each other. The question “which model is the best” is also an essential problem. It is possible to show that the different models exhibit different suitability using an extensive simulation study. The overall best estimation quality of all compared models can be achieved with the multinomial-Dirichlet model. Of the hybrid models, the new hybrid multinomial-Dirichlet model is considered, along with the hybrid multinomial-normal model. The evaluation of these two models shows that the estimation quality of hybrid models is superior to the one that can be achieved with ecological inference, but also almost always better than the estimation quality achieved with individual-level data. Moreover, the estimation can be improved using a relatively low amount of individual-level data, or even with specific prior knowledge in smaller regions. However, an examination of the credibility intervals from the multinomial-Dirichlet model reveals that the coverage rate is too low. While a clear improvement of the coverage rate can be achieved using a correction procedure based on parametric bootstrap, the problem is not solved completely. A consideration of the practical application of these models reveals further problem areas. The pre-processing of the data holds an important role. The most important aspects of data pre-processing are identified with a simulation study. Important issues related to the gathering of individual-level data are discussed using the Munich Exit-Poll study. This discussion also encompasses the answer pattern and the non-response rates. The estimation of the voter transition for Munich between the federal elections in 2009 and 2013 demonstrates the suitability of the hybrid multinomial-Dirichlet model in a practical application. The results show that the liberal party (FDP) lost mainly to the conservative party (CSU), and the Green Party (Die Grünen) lost primarily to the social democrats (SPD). The first time running new right party AfD attracted voters from almost all other parties

Agricultural Structure and the Rise of the Nazi Party reconsidered

There is widespread agreement within academic literature that the NSDAP systematically and effectively targeted the rural areas beginning with the agrarian crisis in 1927/8. However, one issue is left unresolved: were specific levels of agricultural strata differently attracted to the Nazis, and if so, how? In light of the economic and political incentives offered to German peasants with differing farm sizes, we expect that regions characterized by middle peasants were most likely to have electorally swung in a distinct, asymmetric and relevant way towards the Nazis. In order to test this hypothesis, we have used a country-wide data set, which includes the original categories of ‘parcel peasants’ (0-2 hectare), ‘small-sized’ (2-5 hectare) and ‘medium-sized’ farmers (5-20 hectare). These specific classifications were introduced and behaviorally legitimated by the Statistical Office of the Weimar Republic at that time. We present the first analysis applying generalised additive models (GAM) for the assessment of ecological relations. In order to account for the construction of political spaces – and therefore of spatial dependencies, we offer a new mechanism based on stipulations of the electoral system. Even after controlling for pre-established impact factors (protestantism, urbanization, etc.) and for spatial effects, we identify a clear impact of the agrarian middle classes (5-20 hectare) on the Nazi vote beginning with the election in July 1932

Micromotives of Vote Switchers and Macrotransitions: The Case of the Immigration Issue in a Regional Earthquake Election in Germany 2018

Which issue-related motives underlie voters' decision to switch parties at the polls? Do switchers stick to the newly chosen party, or do they oscillate in a short-term way at intermediate elections? Relying on the behavioral theory of elections, we assumed aspiration-based voting of boundedly rational voters. We elicited issue-related switch and stay motives in an open-ended survey question format to identify the individual dominant aspirational frame. We traced the respondents' voting trajectories over three consecutive elections, including two state (2013 and 2018) elections in Bavaria (Germany) and one German federal election (2017). We focused on one of the most polarizing and salient issues in these elections, namely immigration. The case of reference is the 2018 Bavarian state election. Here, the incumbent majoritarian center-right party Christian Social Union tried to deter the entry of the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany by adapting to it on the immigration issue in tone and position. The selected case allows assessment of the impact of issue-based adaptive behavior of the incumbent party at the level of the voters' switch or stay choices. We estimated the direction and number of voter flows for two interelection sequences of different lengths between different types of polls (federal and state). Our transition estimates are based on the hybrid multinomial Dirichlet model, a new technique integrating individual-level survey data and official aggregate data. Our estimates uncover substantial behavioral differences in the immigration issue public

A Politico-Communal Reading of the Rose

Lettura del Fiore in rapporto alle fonti retoriche e politiche di ambiente comunal

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good