Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study.

BACKGROUND: Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally. METHODS: Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex. RESULTS: Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older. CONCLUSIONS: Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys

Global mortality from dementia : Application of a new method and results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Introduction Dementia is currently one of the leading causes of mortality globally, and mortality due to dementia will likely increase in the future along with corresponding increases in population growth and population aging. However, large inconsistencies in coding practices in vital registration systems over time and between countries complicate the estimation of global dementia mortality. Methods We meta-analyzed the excess risk of death in those with dementia and multiplied these estimates by the proportion of dementia deaths occurring in those with severe, end-stage disease to calculate the total number of deaths that could be attributed to dementia. Results We estimated that there were 1.62 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.41-4.21) deaths globally due to dementia in 2019. More dementia deaths occurred in women (1.06 million [0.27-2.71]) than men (0.56 million [0.14-1.51]), largely but not entirely due to the higher life expectancy in women (age-standardized female-to-male ratio 1.19 [1.10-1.26]). Due to population aging, there was a large increase in all-age mortality rates from dementia between 1990 and 2019 (100.1% [89.1-117.5]). In 2019, deaths due to dementia ranked seventh globally in all ages and fourth among individuals 70 and older compared to deaths from other diseases estimated in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Discussion Mortality due to dementia represents a substantial global burden, and is expected to continue to grow into the future as an older, aging population expands globally.Peer reviewe

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Characterization of hospital and community-acquired respiratory syncytial virus in children with severe lower respiratory tract infections in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2010

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important community and nosocomial pathogen in developed countries but data regarding the importance of RSV in developing countries are relatively scarce.During a 1-year surveillance study in 2010, we took serial samples from children admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Respiratory Ward of Children's Hospital 1 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. RSV was detected within 72 hours of admission to the ward in 26% (376/1439; RSV A: n = 320; RSV B: n = 54; and RSV A and B: n = 2). Among those negative in the first 72 hours after admission, 6.6% (25/377) acquired nosocomial RSV infection during hospitalization (RSV A: n = 22; and RSV B: n = 3).Children with nosocomial RSV infection were younger (P = 0.001) and had a longer duration of hospitalization (P &lt; 0.001). The rate of incomplete recovery among children with nosocomial RSV infection was significantly higher than among those without (P &lt; 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis of partial G gene sequences obtained from 79% (316/401) of positive specimens revealed the co-circulation of multiple genotypes with RSV A NA1 being predominant (A NA1: n = 275; A GA5: n = 5; B BA3: n = 3; B BA9: n = 26; and B BA10: n = 7). The RSV A GA5 and RSV B BA3 genotypes have not been reported from Vietnam, previously.Besides emphasizing the importance of RSV as a cause of respiratory infection leading to hospitalization in young children and as a nosocomial pathogen, data from this study extend our knowledge on the genetic diversity of RSV circulating in Vietnam

Characterization of hospital and community-acquired respiratory syncytial virus in children with severe lower respiratory tract infections in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2010

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important community and nosocomial pathogen in developed countries but data regarding the importance of RSV in developing countries are relatively scarce.During a 1-year surveillance study in 2010, we took serial samples from children admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Respiratory Ward of Children's Hospital 1 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. RSV was detected within 72 hours of admission to the ward in 26% (376/1439; RSV A: n = 320; RSV B: n = 54; and RSV A and B: n = 2). Among those negative in the first 72 hours after admission, 6.6% (25/377) acquired nosocomial RSV infection during hospitalization (RSV A: n = 22; and RSV B: n = 3).Children with nosocomial RSV infection were younger (P = 0.001) and had a longer duration of hospitalization (P < 0.001). The rate of incomplete recovery among children with nosocomial RSV infection was significantly higher than among those without (P < 0.001). Phylogenetic analysis of partial G gene sequences obtained from 79% (316/401) of positive specimens revealed the co-circulation of multiple genotypes with RSV A NA1 being predominant (A NA1: n = 275; A GA5: n = 5; B BA3: n = 3; B BA9: n = 26; and B BA10: n = 7). The RSV A GA5 and RSV B BA3 genotypes have not been reported from Vietnam, previously.Besides emphasizing the importance of RSV as a cause of respiratory infection leading to hospitalization in young children and as a nosocomial pathogen, data from this study extend our knowledge on the genetic diversity of RSV circulating in Vietnam

Antibiotic use and prescription and its effects on Enterobacteriaceae in the gut in children with mild respiratory infections in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. A prospective observational outpatient study

Background and objectives Treatment guidelines do not recommend antibiotic use for acute respiratory infections (ARI), except for streptococcal pharyngitis/tonsillitis and pneumonia. However, antibiotics are prescribed frequently for children with ARI, often in absence of evidence for bacterial infection. The objectives of this study were 1) to assess the appropriateness of antibiotic prescriptions for mild ARI in paediatric outpatients in relation to available guidelines and detected pathogens, 2) to assess antibiotic use on presentation using questionnaires and detection in urine 3) to assess the carriage rates and proportions of resistant intestinal Enterobacteriaceae before, during and after consultation. Materials and methods Patients were prospectively enrolled in Children’s Hospital 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and diagnoses, prescribed therapy and outcome were recorded on first visit and on follow-up after 7 days. Respiratory bacterial and viral pathogens were detected using molecular assays. Antibiotic use before presentation was assessed using questionnaires and urine HPLC. The impact of antibiotic usage on intestinal Enterobacteriaceae was assessed with semi-quantitative culture on agar with and without antibiotics on presentation and after 7 and 28 days. Results A total of 563 patients were enrolled between February 2009 and February 2010. Antibiotics were prescribed for all except 2 of 563 patients. The majority were 2nd and 3rd generation oral cephalosporins and amoxicillin with or without clavulanic acid. Respiratory viruses were detected in respiratory specimens of 72.5% of patients. Antibiotic use was considered inappropriate in 90.1% and 67.5%, based on guidelines and detected pathogens, respectively. On presentation parents reported antibiotic use for 22% of patients, 41% of parents did not know and 37% denied antibiotic use. Among these three groups, six commonly used antibiotics were detected with HPLC in patients’ urine in 49%, 40% and 14%, respectively. Temporary selection of 3rd generation cephalosporin resistant intestinal Enterobacteriaceae during antibiotic use was observed, with co-selection of resistance to aminoglycosides and fluoroquinolones. Conclusions We report overuse and overprescription of antibiotics for uncomplicated ARI with selection of resistant intestinal Enterobacteriaceae, posing a risk for community transmission and persistence in a setting of a highly granular healthcare system and unrestricted access to antibiotics through private pharmacies. Registration This study was registered at the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number registry under number ISRCTN32862422: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN3286242