E-Learning Maturity of Iranian agricultural higher education based on Misra and Dhingra models and its hookup using artificial neural network

E-learning is an artistic educational system and a comprehensive solution for those institutions that want to move in the path of technology of the day and change their teaching methods and environments. The purpose of this study is looking for identification and awareness of the current status of e-learning in universities and higher education institutions to draw the desired situation in this field, and at the same time, review the reasons for the lack of development of e-learning in that area. In this article, the maturity six-level model of Misra and Dingra were used (Levels: Closed, Preliminary, Initial presence, Perceived, Institutionalized, Optimized). This research is a survey. The statistical population of the study includes faculty members and postgraduate students in higher education in agriculture in Iran. The sample size is calculated using the Cochran formula and the sample population of the study was selected by random sampling in several steps which is 517 people. In this study, the questionnaire was used in order to collect the required information. The precision of indices and items cited in the questionnaire, or face validity, was confirmed by the specialists and professors. To investigate the reliability and internal consistency of the study instrument, Cronbach's alpha was used. Cronbach's alpha value was 0.86. In order to analyze the collected data Weka software and artificial neural networks were used. In this paper, based on Misra and Dhingra models, the 6 above levels were data analyzed. After analysis by artificial neural networks and communicating between electronic maturity levels, the fourth level or "realized level", with 82.37% accuracy of information, and with the fewest amount of errors (7 %) was more desirable compared to other levels

Study of the effectiveness new educational communication tools in comparison with traditional methods in increasing water recourses users knowledge

Background and Objectives: In recent decades, the development of agriculture and rural areas has been very important and in some cases it has been mentioned as the axis of development. Since the development of countries is impossible without efficient specialists, education is considered as one of the priorities of any country, including Iran. E-learning with modern communication methods is one of the educational systems that has been focused on due to the growth and expansion of Internet networks and has been proposed as a new idea and the key to the transition of human resources to the information society. Today, to increase the motivation of learners and improve the productivity of education, attention to digital technologies is increasingly important. With the beginning of the age of information technology, educational systems were one of the first areas that underwent changes and the use of new and active learning methods by educational administrators in various fields such as agricultural sciences, engineering, medicine, etc. have been felt. The current study of the effectiveness New educational communication tools in Comparison with Traditional Methods in Increasing water resources usersKnowledge. Method and Materials:  In a quasi-experimental study, 60 gardeners were randomly selected as the samples. They were divided into two peer groups with respect to age, education, economic status, amount of land, being a member of social network (30 for experiments and 30 for control). The main tool for research was the researcher-made questionnaire which was formed on the basis of existing theoretical comments. Findings: The results showed that the strategies that gardeners apply for climate change are intercropping strategy, using integrated farming systems, changing the time farming operation, drought-tolerant crops. According to Levene test and equality of variances, there is a significant difference (Telegram and What Sapp) between the pre-test scores and post-test scores in the group receiving mobile learning. So that education through social networks and electronics had a significant impact in adopting coping strategies relating the effects of climate change. Conclusion: The results indicate that the component of the hope for recovery has had the greatest impact on adaptation to climate change. And the component of fidelity has the least effect. Also, demographic and psychological components explain 61% of changes in farmers' adaptation. According to the research results and in order to increase the learning efficiency and improve the level of knowledge and skills of gardeners and farmers, it is suggested to use new methods of hybrid instruction education. It is also suggested that training courses on the use of modern equipment and tools for gardeners be considered by those involved in the field of agricultural education and the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture. Since e-learning as well as mobile learning are not limited to a specific time and place and have a very wide scope of practice and are known as ‘teaching at any time and place’, therefore, it is recommended to make maximum use of this potential capacity to create growth and development among gardeners.   ===================================================================================== COPYRIGHTS  ©2020 The author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, as long as the original authors and source are cited. No permission is required from the authors or the publishers.  ====================================================================================

Checking the e-learning acceptability of Iranian agricultural higher education centers from the viewpoints of faculty staff and graduate students

Background and Objectives:E-learning is the newest form of distance learning and is called an approach to curriculum planning in which, in addition to using inclusive methods, computer tools and the Internet are used. The first generation of e-learning, or web-based learning programs, focused on providing physical classes based on educational content and the Internet. Today, many universities and educational institutions around the world have stepped in to design and offer e-learning programs and courses to meet the growing demand for education. One of the desirable features that can play an important role in increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of this type of training is the personalization of the learning environment according to the characteristics of learners. This adaptation is in order for the user to be able to benefit from the learning content and other services of the system according to their goals, knowledge and preferences, and the system, instead of treating everyone equally, treats everyone according to its own characteristics. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effective factors of e-learning adoption in agricultural higher education universities of Iran and to determine the most effective structures on the acceptance of this technology by the faculty members and graduate students. This research was performed to measure the acceptance using survey and the multivariate statistical technique of path analyses. Method and Materials: Statistical population of this research consisted of faculty members and postgraduate students in Iran’s higher agricultural education centers. Total Cronbach Alpha of the questionnaire, for the reliability of the 68 items of the questionnaire, was 88.5 % that is an acceptable figure which demonstrates the high reliability of the questionnaire. In total, 646 questionnaires were collected from 4 universities (Tehran University, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hormozgan University and Torbat Heydariyeh University). After multivariate statistical analysis ‘Path analysis’ and through calculating Beta Coefficients for different routes, the importance of each path was determined. Findings: The results showed that if members of the faculty and postgraduate students of higher education of agriculture in Iran get this reflection that the use of e-learning to carry out their educational activities is useful and reliable at higher agricultural education centers, even those people are not consistent with their subjective norms and have risks, they will continue to use e-learning. From the perspective of the respondents, e-learning is a safe and appropriate education. Therefore, possible risks in such training in virtual environments does not affect their attitude towards this type of training. Conclusion: Therefore, it can be said that if faculty members and graduate students of agricultural higher education in Iran come to the mentality that using e-learning to carry out their educational activities in agricultural higher education centers is "beneficial" as well as "reliable”, even if it is not compatible with their "mental norm" and has a "perceived risk", they will still use e-learning

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9) in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in 2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years (56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary: Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future