Statistical evaluation of mathematical models for Salmonella typhimurium growth

Food illness is a serious health threat and has significant economic consequences for people in both the developing and developed world. Salmonella genus is one of the most common pathogens and a major cause of foodborne illness in humans worldwide. Nowadays, the application of mathematical models and functions to describe the microorganism growth kinetics provides a new behavioral vision of the interaction between microorganisms and the environment. Lately the studies on the subject have been gathering interest in the elaboration and application of mathematical modeling and equations over the last years to be used in biotechnological and industrial process, therefore being a most useful tool, with the intent of reducing time and expenses associated with the conventional tests. The purpose of the present study was to compare the Baranyi and Roberts (1994) model with quadratic function generated from data experimentally obtained of the Salmonella typhimurium growth in vitro. It was observed that the quadratic function had a better fitting to describe the kinetics growth of Salmonella typhimurium, this function being a low cost, efficient and easily applied tool

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Statistical evaluation of mathematical models for Salmonella typhimurium growth

Food illness is a serious health threat and has significant economic consequences for people in both the developing and developed world. Salmonella genus is one of the most common pathogens and a major cause of foodborne illness in humans worldwide. Nowadays, the application of mathematical models and functions to describe the microorganism growth kinetics provides a new behavioral vision of the interaction between microorganisms and the environment. Lately the studies on the subject have been gathering interest in the elaboration and application of mathematical modeling and equations over the last years to be used in biotechnological and industrial process, therefore being a most useful tool, with the intent of reducing time and expenses associated with the conventional tests. The purpose of the present study was to compare the Baranyi and Roberts (1994) model with quadratic function generated from data experimentally obtained of the Salmonella typhimurium growth in vitro. It was observed that the quadratic function had a better fitting to describe the kinetics growth of Salmonella typhimurium, this function being a low cost, efficient and easily applied tool

Inside the Class of REGEX Languages

We study different possibilities of combining the concept of homomorphic replacement with regular expressions in order to investigate the class of languages given by extended regular expressions with backreferences (REGEX). It is shown in which regard existing and natural ways to do this fail to reach the expressive power of REGEX. Furthermore, the complexity of the membership problem for REGEX with a bounded number of backreferences is considered

Asia-Pacific mussel watch for emerging pollutants: Distribution of synthetic musks and benzotriazole UV stabilizers in Asian and US coastal waters

We analyzed 68 green and blue mussels collected from Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and the USA during 2003 and 2007, to elucidate the occurrence and widespread distributions of emerging pollutants, synthetic musks and benzotriazole UV stabilizers (BUVSs) in Asia-Pacific coastal waters. Synthetic musks and BUVSs were detected in mussels from all countries, suggesting their ubiquitous contamination and widespread distribution. High concentrations of musks and BUVSs were detected in mussels from Japan and Korea, where the levels were comparable or greater than those of PCBs, DDTs and PBDEs. Significant correlations were found between the concentrations of HHCB and AHTN, and also between the concentrations of UV-327 and UV-328, which suggest similar sources and compositions of these compounds in commercial and industrial products. To our knowledge, this is the first study of large-scale monitoring of synthetic musks and BUVSs in Asia-Pacific coastal waters. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd