Two novel prediction models improve predictions of skin corrosive sub-categories by test methods of OECD Test Guideline No. 431

n/

t4 Workshop Report: Integrated Testing Strategies (ITS) for Safety Assessment

Integrated testing strategies (ITS), as opposed to single definitive tests or fixed batteries of tests, are expected to efficiently combine different information sources in a quantifiable fashion to satisfy an information need, in this case for regulatory safety assessments. With increasing awareness of the limitations of each individual tool and the development of highly targeted tests and predictions, the need for combining pieces of evidence increases. The discussions that took place during this workshop, which brought together a group of experts coming from different related areas, illustrate the current state of the art of ITS, as well as promising developments and identifiable challenges. The case of skin sensitization was taken as an example to understand how possible ITS can be constructed, optimized and validated. This will require embracing and developing new concepts such as adverse outcome pathways (AOP), advanced statistical learning algorithms and machine learning, mechanistic validation and “Good ITS Practices”.JRC.I.5-Systems Toxicolog

The German MultiCare-study: Patterns of multimorbidity in primary health care – protocol of a prospective cohort study

Background Multimorbidity is a highly frequent condition in older people, but well designed longitudinal studies on the impact of multimorbidity on patients and the health care system have been remarkably scarce in numbers until today. Little is known about the long term impact of multimorbidity on the patients' life expectancy, functional status and quality of life as well as health care utilization over time. As a consequence, there is little help for GPs in adjusting care for these patients, even though studies suggest that adhering to present clinical practice guidelines in the care of patients with multimorbidity may have adverse effects. Methods The study is designed as a multicentre prospective, observational cohort study of 3.050 patients aged 65 to 85 at baseline with at least three different diagnoses out of a list of 29 illnesses and syndromes. The patients will be recruited in approx. 120 to 150 GP surgeries in 8 study centres distributed across Germany. Information about the patients' morbidity will be collected mainly in GP interviews and from chart reviews. Functional status, resources/risk factors, health care utilization and additional morbidity data will be assessed in patient interviews, in which a multitude of well established standardized questionnaires and tests will be performed. Discussion The main aim of the cohort study is to monitor the course of the illness process and to analyse for which reasons medical conditions are stable, deteriorating or only temporarily present. First, clusters of combinations of diseases/disorders (multimorbidity patterns) with a comparable impact (e.g. on quality of life and/or functional status) will be identified. Then the development of these clusters over time will be analysed, especially with regard to prognostic variables and the somatic, psychological and social consequences as well as the utilization of health care resources. The results will allow the development of an instrument for prediction of the deterioration of the illness process and point at possibilities of prevention. The practical consequences of the study results for primary care will be analysed in expert focus groups in order to develop strategies for the inclusion of the aspects of multimorbidity in primary care guidelines

Prediction of Dementia in Primary Care Patients

BACKGROUND: Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe). After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort). Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV) for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort) the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia) in the test cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1) sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2) more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Inclusive and multiplicity dependent production of electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays in pp and p-Pb collisions

Measurements of the production of electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays in pp collisions at root s = 13 TeV at midrapidity with the ALICE detector are presented down to a transverse momentum (p(T)) of 0.2 GeV/c and up to p(T) = 35 GeV/c, which is the largest momentum range probed for inclusive electron measurements in ALICE. In p-Pb collisions, the production cross section and the nuclear modification factor of electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays are measured in the p(T) range 0.5 < p(T) < 26 GeV/c at root s(NN) = 8.16 TeV. The nuclear modification factor is found to be consistent with unity within the statistical and systematic uncertainties. In both collision systems, first measurements of the yields of electrons from heavy-flavour hadron decays in different multiplicity intervals normalised to the multiplicity-integrated yield (self-normalised yield) at midrapidity are reported as a function of the self-normalised charged-particle multiplicity estimated at midrapidity. The self-normalised yields in pp and p-Pb collisions grow faster than linear with the self-normalised multiplicity. A strong p(T) dependence is observed in pp collisions, where the yield of high-p(T) electrons increases faster as a function of multiplicity than the one of low-p(T) electrons. The measurement in p-Pb collisions shows no p(T) dependence within uncertainties. The self-normalised yields in pp and p-Pb collisions are compared with measurements of other heavy-flavour, light-flavour, and strange particles, and with Monte Carlo simulations

Light (anti)nuclei production in Pb-Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV

The measurement of the production of deuterons, tritons and 3 He and their antiparticles in Pb-Pb collisions at √s NN = 5.02 TeV is presented in this article. The measurements are carried out at midrapidity (|y| < 0.5) as a function of collision centrality using the ALICE detector. The pT -integrated yields, the coalescence parameters and the ratios to protons and antiprotons are reported and compared with nucleosynthesis models. The comparison of these results in different collision systems at different center-of-mass collision energies reveals a suppression of nucleus production in small systems. In the Statistical Hadronisation Model framework, this can be explained by a small correlation volume where the baryon number is conserved, as already shown in previous fluctuation analyses. However, a different size of the correlation volume is required to describe the proton yields in the same data sets. The coalescence model can describe this suppression by the fact that the wave functions of the nuclei are large and the fireball size starts to become comparable and even much smaller than the actual nucleus at low multiplicities

Production of pions, kaons, and protons as a function of the relative transverse activity classifier in pp collisions at s \sqrt{s} = 13 TeV

Abstract: The production of π±, K±, and ( p )p is measured in pp collisions at √s = 13 TeV in different topological regions of the events. Particle transverse momentum (pT) spectra are measured in the “toward”, “transverse”, and “away” angular regions defined with respect to the direction of the leading particle in the event. While the toward and away regions contain the fragmentation products of the near-side and away-side jets, respectively, the transverse region is dominated by particles from the Underlying Event (UE). The relative transverse activity classifier, RT = NT/〈NT〉, is used to group events according to their UE activity, where NT is the measured charged-particle multiplicity per event in the transverse region and 〈NT〉 is the mean value over all the analysed events. The first measurements of identified particle pT spectra as a function of RT in the three topological regions are reported. It is found that the yield of high transverse momentum particles relative to the RT-integrated measurement decreases with increasing RT in both the toward and the away regions, indicating that the softer UE dominates particle production as RT increases and validating that RT can be used to control the magnitude of the UE. Conversely, the spectral shapes in the transverse region harden significantly with increasing RT. This hardening follows a mass ordering, being more significant for heavier particles. Finally, it is observed that the pT-differential particle ratios (p + p )/(π+ + π−) and (K+ + K−)/(π+ + π−) in the low UE limit (RT → 0) approach expectations from Monte Carlo generators such as PYTHIA 8 with Monash 2013 tune and EPOS LHC, where the jet-fragmentation models have been tuned to reproduce e+e− results

Accessing the strong interaction between Λ baryons and charged kaons with the femtoscopy technique at the LHC

The interaction between Λ baryons and kaons/antikaons is a crucial ingredient for the strangeness S=0 and S=-2 sector of the meson–baryon interaction at low energies. In particular, the Lambda-Kbar might help in understanding the origin of states such as the Csi(1620), whose nature and properties are still under debate. Experimental data on Lambda-K and Lambda-Kbar systems are scarce, leading to large uncertainties and tension between the available theoretical predictions constrained by such data. In this Letter we present the measurements of Λ–KK− and Λ–KK+ correlations obtained in the high-multiplicity triggered data sample in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 13 TeV recorded by ALICE at the LHC. The correlation function for both pairs is modeled using the Lednický–Lyuboshits analytical formula and the corresponding scattering parameters are extracted. The Λ–KK+ correlations show the presence of several structures at relative momenta k* above 200 MeV/c, compatible with the Ω baryon, the , and resonances decaying into Λ–K− pairs. The low k* region in the Λ–KK+ also exhibits the presence of the state, expected to strongly couple to the measured pair. The presented data allow to access the ΛK+ and ΛK− strong interaction with an unprecedented precision and deliver the first experimental observation of the decaying into ΛK−