Sufficient Covariate, Propensity Variable and Doubly Robust Estimation

Statistical causal inference from observational studies often requires adjustment for a possibly multi-dimensional variable, where dimension reduction is crucial. The propensity score, first introduced by Rosenbaum and Rubin, is a popular approach to such reduction. We address causal inference within Dawid's decision-theoretic framework, where it is essential to pay attention to sufficient covariates and their properties. We examine the role of a propensity variable in a normal linear model. We investigate both population-based and sample-based linear regressions, with adjustments for a multivariate covariate and for a propensity variable. In addition, we study the augmented inverse probability weighted estimator, involving a combination of a response model and a propensity model. In a linear regression with homoscedasticity, a propensity variable is proved to provide the same estimated causal effect as multivariate adjustment. An estimated propensity variable may, but need not, yield better precision than the true propensity variable. The augmented inverse probability weighted estimator is doubly robust and can improve precision if the propensity model is correctly specified

Application of Minimal Subtraction Renormalization to Crossover Behavior near the 3^3He Liquid-Vapor Critical Point

Parametric expressions are used to calculate the isothermal susceptibility, specific heat, order parameter, and correlation length along the critical isochore and coexistence curve from the asymptotic region to crossover region. These expressions are based on the minimal-subtraction renormalization scheme within the $\phi^4$ model. Using two adjustable parameters in these expressions, we fit the theory globally to recently obtained experimental measurements of isothermal susceptibility and specific heat along the critical isochore and coexistence curve, and early measurements of coexistence curve and light scattering intensity along the critical isochore of $^3$He near its liquid-vapor critical point. The theory provides good agreement with these experimental measurements within the reduced temperature range $|t| \le 2\times 10^{-2}$

Semiparametric theory and empirical processes in causal inference

In this paper we review important aspects of semiparametric theory and empirical processes that arise in causal inference problems. We begin with a brief introduction to the general problem of causal inference, and go on to discuss estimation and inference for causal effects under semiparametric models, which allow parts of the data-generating process to be unrestricted if they are not of particular interest (i.e., nuisance functions). These models are very useful in causal problems because the outcome process is often complex and difficult to model, and there may only be information available about the treatment process (at best). Semiparametric theory gives a framework for benchmarking efficiency and constructing estimators in such settings. In the second part of the paper we discuss empirical process theory, which provides powerful tools for understanding the asymptotic behavior of semiparametric estimators that depend on flexible nonparametric estimators of nuisance functions. These tools are crucial for incorporating machine learning and other modern methods into causal inference analyses. We conclude by examining related extensions and future directions for work in semiparametric causal inference

Hadronic observables from SIS to SPS energies - anything strange with strangeness ?

We calculate $p, \pi^\pm, K^\pm$ and $\Lambda$(+$\Sigma^0$) rapidity distributions and compare to experimental data from SIS to SPS energies within the UrQMD and HSD transport approaches that are both based on string, quark, diquark ($q, \bar{q}, qq, \bar{q}\bar{q}$) and hadronic degrees of freedom. The two transport models do not include any explicit phase transition to a quark-gluon plasma (QGP). It is found that both approaches agree rather well with each other and with the experimental rapidity distributions for protons, $\Lambda$'s, $\pi^\pm$ and $K^\pm$. Inspite of this apparent agreement both transport models fail to reproduce the maximum in the excitation function for the ratio $K^+/\pi^+$ found experimentally between 11 and 40 A$\cdot$GeV. A comparison to the various experimental data shows that this 'failure' is dominantly due to an insufficient description of pion rapidity distributions rather than missing 'strangeness'. The modest differences in the transport model results -- on the other hand -- can be attributed to different implementations of string formation and fragmentation, that are not sufficiently controlled by experimental data for the 'elementary' reactions in vacuum.Comment: 46 pages, including 15 eps figures, to be published in Phys. Rev.

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Special issue connected with a 2016 ISSI workshop on "The Scientific Foundations of Space Weather." 44 pages, 9 figure

Development of a patient decision aid for patients with breast cancer who consider immediate breast reconstruction after mastectomy

Purpose The aim of this study was to develop a patient decision aid (pDA) that could support patients with breast cancer (BC) in making an informed decision about breast reconstruction (BR) after mastectomy. Methods The development included four stages: (i) Establishment of a multidisciplinary team; (ii) Needs assessment consisting of semi-structured interviews in patients and a survey among healthcare professionals (HCPs); (iii) Creation of content, design and technical system; and (iv) Acceptability and usability testing using a think-aloud approach in patients and interviews among HCPs and representatives of the Dutch Breast Cancer Patient Organization. Results From the needs assessment, three themes were identified: Challenging period to make a decision, Diverse motivations for a personal decision and Information needed to make a decision about BR. HCPs valued the development of a pDA, especially to prepare patients for consultation. The pDA that was developed contained three parts: first, a consultation sheet for oncological breast surgeons to introduce the choice; second, an online tool including an overview of reconstructive options, the pros and cons of each option, information on the consequences of each option for daily life, exercises to clarify personal values and patient stories; and third, a summary sheet with patients' values, preferences and questions to help inform and guide the discussion between the patient and her plastic surgeon. The pDA was perceived to be informative, helpful and easy to use by patients and HCPs. Conclusion Consistent with information needs, a pDA was developed to support patients with BC who consider immediate BR in making an informed decision together with their plastic surgeon. Patient or Public Contribution Patients participated in the needs assessment and in acceptability and usability testing.Hereditary cancer genetic

Observation of inverse Compton emission from a long γ-ray burst.

Long-duration γ-ray bursts (GRBs) originate from ultra-relativistic jets launched from the collapsing cores of dying massive stars. They are characterized by an initial phase of bright and highly variable radiation in the kiloelectronvolt-to-megaelectronvolt band, which is probably produced within the jet and lasts from milliseconds to minutes, known as the prompt emission1,2. Subsequently, the interaction of the jet with the surrounding medium generates shock waves that are responsible for the afterglow emission, which lasts from days to months and occurs over a broad energy range from the radio to the gigaelectronvolt bands1-6. The afterglow emission is generally well explained as synchrotron radiation emitted by electrons accelerated by the external shock7-9. Recently, intense long-lasting emission between 0.2 and 1 teraelectronvolts was observed from GRB 190114C10,11. Here we report multi-frequency observations of GRB 190114C, and study the evolution in time of the GRB emission across 17 orders of magnitude in energy, from 5 × 10-6 to 1012 electronvolts. We find that the broadband spectral energy distribution is double-peaked, with the teraelectronvolt emission constituting a distinct spectral component with power comparable to the synchrotron component. This component is associated with the afterglow and is satisfactorily explained by inverse Compton up-scattering of synchrotron photons by high-energy electrons. We find that the conditions required to account for the observed teraelectronvolt component are typical for GRBs, supporting the possibility that inverse Compton emission is commonly produced in GRBs

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-pT spectrum from proton-proton collisions at s=8 TeV

Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published articles title, journal citation, and DOI.The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7  fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362