Predation by Bears Drives Senescence in Natural Populations of Salmon

Classic evolutionary theory predicts that populations experiencing higher rates of environmentally caused (“extrinsic”) mortality should senesce more rapidly, but this theory usually neglects plausible relationships between an individual's senescent condition and its susceptibility to extrinsic mortality. We tested for the evolutionary importance of this condition dependence by comparing senescence rates among natural populations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) subject to varying degrees of predation by brown bears (Ursus arctos). We related senescence rates in six populations to (1) the overall rate of extrinsic mortality, and (2) the degree of condition dependence in this mortality. Senescence rates were determined by modeling the mortality of individually-tagged breeding salmon at each site. The overall rate of extrinsic mortality was estimated as the long-term average of the annual percentage of salmon killed by bears. The degree of condition dependence was estimated as the extent to which bears killed salmon that exhibited varying degrees of senescence. We found that the degree of condition dependence in extrinsic mortality was very important in driving senescence: populations where bears selectively killed fish showing advanced senescence were those that senesced least rapidly. The overall rate of extrinsic mortality also contributed to among-population variation in senescence-but to a lesser extent. Condition-dependent susceptibility to extrinsic mortality should be incorporated more often into theoretical models and should be explicitly tested in natural populations

To bite or not to bite! A questionnaire-based survey assessing why some people are bitten more than others by midges

BACKGROUND: The Scottish biting midge, Culicoides impunctatus, responsible for more than 90% of biting attacks on human beings in Scotland, is known to demonstrate a preference for certain human hosts over others. METHODS: In this study we used a questionnaire-based survey to assess the association between people's perception of how badly they get bitten by midges and their demographic, lifestyle and health related characteristics. RESULTS: Most people (85.8%) reported being bitten sometimes, often or always with only 14.2% reporting never being bitten by midges when in Scotland. There was no association between level of bites received and age, smoking, diet, exercise, medication, eating strongly flavoured foods or alcohol consumption. However, there was a strong association between the probability of being bitten and increasing height (in men) and BMI (in women). A large proportion of participants (33.8%) reported experiencing a bad/severe reaction to midge bites while 53.1% reported a minor reaction and 13.1% no reaction at all. Also, women tend to react more than men to midge bites. Additionally, the results indicated that the susceptibility to being bitten by midges is hereditary. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that midges prefer to bite men that are tall and women that have a large BMI, and that the tendency for a child to be bitten or not could be inherited from their parent. The study is questionnaire-based; therefore, the interpretation of the results may be limited by the subjectivity of the answers given by the respondents. Although the results are relevant only to the Scottish biting midge, the approach used here could be useful for investigating human-insect interactions for other insects, particularly those which transmit pathogens that cause disease

Single nucleotide polymorphisms unravel hierarchical divergence and signatures of selection among Alaskan sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Disentangling the roles of geography and ecology driving population divergence and distinguishing adaptive from neutral evolution at the molecular level have been common goals among evolutionary and conservation biologists. Using single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) multilocus genotypes for 31 sockeye salmon (<it>Oncorhynchus nerka</it>) populations from the Kvichak River, Alaska, we assessed the relative roles of geography (discrete boundaries or continuous distance) and ecology (spawning habitat and timing) driving genetic divergence in this species at varying spatial scales within the drainage. We also evaluated two outlier detection methods to characterize candidate SNPs responding to environmental selection, emphasizing which mechanism(s) may maintain the genetic variation of outlier loci.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For the entire drainage, Mantel tests suggested a greater role of geographic distance on population divergence than differences in spawn timing when each variable was correlated with pairwise genetic distances. Clustering and hierarchical analyses of molecular variance indicated that the largest genetic differentiation occurred between populations from distinct lakes or subdrainages. Within one population-rich lake, however, Mantel tests suggested a greater role of spawn timing than geographic distance on population divergence when each variable was correlated with pairwise genetic distances. Variable spawn timing among populations was linked to specific spawning habitats as revealed by principal coordinate analyses. We additionally identified two outlier SNPs located in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II that appeared robust to violations of demographic assumptions from an initial pool of eight candidates for selection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>First, our results suggest that geography and ecology have influenced genetic divergence between Alaskan sockeye salmon populations in a hierarchical manner depending on the spatial scale. Second, we found consistent evidence for diversifying selection in two loci located in the MHC class II by means of outlier detection methods; yet, alternative scenarios for the evolution of these loci were also evaluated. Both conclusions argue that historical contingency and contemporary adaptation have likely driven differentiation between Kvichak River sockeye salmon populations, as revealed by a suite of SNPs. Our findings highlight the need for conservation of complex population structure, because it provides resilience in the face of environmental change, both natural and anthropogenic.</p

Temperature Anomalies and Mortality Events in Marine Communities: Insights on Factors behind Differential Mortality Impacts in the NW Mediterranean

Two large-scale mass mortality events (MMEs) of unprecedented extent and severity affecting rocky benthic communities occurred during the summers of 1999 and 2003 along the coasts of the NW Mediterranean Sea. These mortality outbreaks were associated with positive thermal anomalies. In this study, we performed an analysis of inter-regional and inter-annual differences in temperature (T) conditions associated with MMEs of the red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata by analyzing high resolution T time series (hourly records for 3 to 8 years) from four regions of the NW Mediterranean with differing hydrological conditions and biological impacts. High resolution records allowed a detailed analysis using classical and new descriptors to characterize T anomalies. We were able to determine that the MMEs were triggered by two main types of positive thermal anomalies, with the first type being characterized by short periods (2 to 5 days) with high Mean T reaching more than 27°C in some regions and being associated with high intra-day and intra-period variability, while the second type of anomaly presented long duration (near one month) at warm T (24°C) with low intra-period variability. Inter-regional patterns arose; some regions displayed both types of anomalies, while others exhibited only one type. The results showed that T conditions should be considered as the main factor that explains the observed inter-regional and inter-annual differences in mortality impacts. In explaining these differences, the late timing of T anomalies, in addition to their magnitude was found to be determinant. Finally, by combining thermotolerance experimental data with the maximal T stress conditions observed in the four regions, we were able to determine the differential risk of mass mortality across regions. We conclude that expanding high resolution T series is important for the development of sound management and conservation plans to protect Mediterranean marine biodiversity in the face of climate change

Both Geography and Ecology Contribute to Mating Isolation in Guppies

Local adaptation to different environments can promote mating isolation – either as an incidental by-product of trait divergence, or as a result of selection to avoid maladaptive mating. Numerous recent empirical examples point to the common influence of divergent natural selection on speciation based largely on evidence of strong pre-mating isolation between populations from different habitat types. Accumulating evidence for natural selection's influence on speciation is therefore no longer a challenge. The difficulty, rather, is in determining the mechanisms involved in the progress of adaptive divergence to speciation once barriers to gene flow are already present. Here, we present results of both laboratory and field experiments with Trinidadian guppies (Poecilia reticulata) from different environments, who do not show complete reproductive isolation despite adaptive divergence. We investigate patterns of mating isolation between populations that do and do not exchange migrants and show evidence for both by-product and reinforcement mechanisms depending on female ecology. Specifically, low-predation females discriminate against all high-predation males thus implying a by-product mechanism, whereas high-predation females only discriminate against low-predation males from further upstream in the same river, implying selection to avoid maladaptive mating. Our study thus confirms that mechanisms of adaptive speciation are not necessarily mutually exclusive and uncovers the complex ecology-geography interactions that underlie the evolution of mating isolation in nature

Is increased time to diagnosis and treatment in symptomatic cancer associated with poorer outcomes?:Systematic review

background: It is unclear whether more timely cancer diagnosis brings favourable outcomes, with much of the previous evidence, in some cancers, being equivocal. We set out to determine whether there is an association between time to diagnosis, treatment and clinical outcomes, across all cancers for symptomatic presentations. methods: Systematic review of the literature and narrative synthesis. results: We included 177 articles reporting 209 studies. These studies varied in study design, the time intervals assessed and the outcomes reported. Study quality was variable, with a small number of higher-quality studies. Heterogeneity precluded definitive findings. The cancers with more reports of an association between shorter times to diagnosis and more favourable outcomes were breast, colorectal, head and neck, testicular and melanoma. conclusions: This is the first review encompassing many cancer types, and we have demonstrated those cancers in which more evidence of an association between shorter times to diagnosis and more favourable outcomes exists, and where it is lacking. We believe that it is reasonable to assume that efforts to expedite the diagnosis of symptomatic cancer are likely to have benefits for patients in terms of improved survival, earlier-stage diagnosis and improved quality of life, although these benefits vary between cancers

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England.

Background: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. Methods: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. Results: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: “Ward, CC, Ward”, “Ward, CC”, “CC” and “CC, Ward”. Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. Conclusions: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. Trial registration: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR.</p

Shedding Light on the Galaxy Luminosity Function

From as early as the 1930s, astronomers have tried to quantify the statistical nature of the evolution and large-scale structure of galaxies by studying their luminosity distribution as a function of redshift - known as the galaxy luminosity function (LF). Accurately constructing the LF remains a popular and yet tricky pursuit in modern observational cosmology where the presence of observational selection effects due to e.g. detection thresholds in apparent magnitude, colour, surface brightness or some combination thereof can render any given galaxy survey incomplete and thus introduce bias into the LF. Over the last seventy years there have been numerous sophisticated statistical approaches devised to tackle these issues; all have advantages -- but not one is perfect. This review takes a broad historical look at the key statistical tools that have been developed over this period, discussing their relative merits and highlighting any significant extensions and modifications. In addition, the more generalised methods that have emerged within the last few years are examined. These methods propose a more rigorous statistical framework within which to determine the LF compared to some of the more traditional methods. I also look at how photometric redshift estimations are being incorporated into the LF methodology as well as considering the construction of bivariate LFs. Finally, I review the ongoing development of completeness estimators which test some of the fundamental assumptions going into LF estimators and can be powerful probes of any residual systematic effects inherent magnitude-redshift data.Comment: 95 pages, 23 figures, 3 tables. Now published in The Astronomy & Astrophysics Review. This version: bring in line with A&AR format requirements, also minor typo corrections made, additional citations and higher rez images adde

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

The impact of viral mutations on recognition by SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells.

We identify amino acid variants within dominant SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes by interrogating global sequence data. Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. Complete loss of T cell responsiveness was seen due to Q213K in the A∗01:01-restricted CD8+ ORF3a epitope FTSDYYQLY207-215; due to P13L, P13S, and P13T in the B∗27:05-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope QRNAPRITF9-17; and due to T362I and P365S in the A∗03:01/A∗11:01-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope KTFPPTEPK361-369. CD8+ T cell lines unable to recognize variant epitopes have diverse T cell receptor repertoires. These data demonstrate the potential for T cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T cell as well as humoral immunity.This work is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS) Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS), China; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and UK Researchand Innovation (UKRI)/NIHR through the UK Coro-navirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC). Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 samples and collation of data wasundertaken by the COG-UK CONSORTIUM. COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical ResearchCouncil (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI),the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR),and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. T.I.d.S. is supported by a Well-come Trust Intermediate Clinical Fellowship (110058/Z/15/Z). L.T. is supported by the Wellcome Trust(grant number 205228/Z/16/Z) and by theUniversity of Liverpool Centre for Excellence in Infectious DiseaseResearch (CEIDR). S.D. is funded by an NIHR GlobalResearch Professorship (NIHR300791). L.T. and S.C.M.are also supported by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Medical Countermeasures Initiative contract75F40120C00085 and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) inEmerging and Zoonotic Infections (NIHR200907) at University of Liverpool inpartnership with Public HealthEngland (PHE), in collaboration with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the University of Oxford.L.T. is based at the University of Liverpool. M.D.P. is funded by the NIHR Sheffield Biomedical ResearchCentre (BRC – IS-BRC-1215-20017). ISARIC4C is supported by the MRC (grant no MC_PC_19059). J.C.K.is a Wellcome Investigator (WT204969/Z/16/Z) and supported by NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centreand CIFMS. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or MRC