Nonlinear transmission of financial shocks: Some new evidence

Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their role is quite modest. Financial shocks have become more important for economic fluctuations after the 2000 and have contributed substantially to deepening the recessions of 2001 and 2008. The evidence is obtained using a new econometric procedure based on a Vector Moving Average representation that includes a nonlinear function of the financial shock.publishedVersio

The impact of financial shocks on the forecast distribution of output and inflation

Financial shocks represent a major driver of fluctuations in tail risk, defined as the 5th percentile of the forecast distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the left tail, financial shocks turn out to play a prominent role for distribution dynamics. Monetary policy shocks also play a role in shaping risk, although its effects are smaller than those of financial shocks. These findings are obtained using a novel econometric approach which combines quantile regressions and Structural VARs.publishedVersio

Bad News, Good News: Coverage and Response Asymmetries

We study the dynamic link between economic news coverage and the macroeconomy. We construct two measures of media coverage of bad and good unemployment figures based on three major US newspapers. Using nonlinear time series techniques, we document three facts: (i) there is no significant negativity bias in economic news coverage. Newspapers’ asymmetric responsiveness to positive and negative unemployment shocks is entirely explained by their asymmetric effects on unemployment; (ii) consumption reacts to bad news, but not to good news; (iii) bad news is more informative to the agents and modifies their expectations more than good news.publishedVersio

Prognostic significance of diabetes and stress hyperglycemia in acute stroke patients

Background Hyperglycemic non-diabetic stroke patients have a worse prognosis than both normoglycemic and diabetic patients. Aim of this study was to assess whether hyperglycemia is an aggravating factor or just an epiphenomenon of most severe strokes. Methods In this retrospective study, 1219 ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients (73.7 +/- 13.1 years) were divided into 4 groups: 0 = non-hyperglycemic non-diabetic, 1 = hyperglycemic non-diabetic, 2 = non-hyperglycemic diabetic and 3 = hyperglycemic diabetic. Hyperglycemia was defined as fasting blood glucose >= 126 mg/dl (>= 7 mmol/l) measured the morning after admission, while the diagnosis of diabetes was based on a history of diabetes mellitus or on a glycated hemoglobin >= 6.5% (>= 48 mmol/mol), independently of blood glucose levels. All diabetic patients, except 3, had Type 2 diabetes. The 4 groups were compared according to clinical history, stroke severity indicators, acute phase markers and main short term stroke outcomes (modified Rankin scale >= 3, death, cerebral edema, hemorrhagic transformation of ischemic lesions, fever, oxygen administration, pneumonia, sepsis, urinary infection and heart failure). Results Group 1 patients had more severe strokes, with larger cerebral lesions and higher inflammatory markers, compared to the other groups. They also had a high prevalence of atrial fibrillation, prediabetes, previous stroke and previous arterial revascularizations. In this group, the highest frequencies of cerebral edema, hemorrhagic transformation, pneumonia and oxygen administration were obtained. The prevalence of dependency at discharge and in-hospital mortality were equally high in Group 1 and Group 3. However, in multivariate analyses including stroke severity, cerebral lesion diameter, leukocytes and C-reactive protein, Group 1 was only independently associated with hemorrhagic transformation (OR 2.01, 95% CI 0.99-4.07), while Group 3 was independently associated with mortality (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.32-3.64) and disability (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.01-2.88). Conclusions Hyperglycemic non-diabetic stroke patients had a worse prognosis than non-hyperglycemic or diabetic patients, but this group was not independently associated with mortality or disability when size, severity and inflammatory component of the stroke were accounted for

Anatomically asymmetrical runners move more asymmetrically at the same metabolic cost

We hypothesized that, as occurring in cars, body structural asymmetries could generate asymmetry in the kinematics/dynamics of locomotion, ending up in a higher metabolic cost of transport, i.e. more 'fuel' needed to travel a given distance. Previous studies found the asymmetries in horses' body negatively correlated with galloping performance. In this investigation, we analyzed anatomical differences between the left and right lower limbs as a whole by performing 3D cross-correlation of Magnetic Resonance Images of 19 male runners, clustered as Untrained Runners, Occasional Runners and Skilled Runners. Running kinematics of their body centre of mass were obtained from the body segments coordinates measured by a 3D motion capture system at incremental running velocities on a treadmill. A recent mathematical procedure quantified the asymmetry of the body centre of mass trajectory between the left and right steps. During the same sessions, runners' metabolic consumption was measured and the cost of transport was calculated. No correlations were found between anatomical/kinematic variables and the metabolic cost of transport, regardless of the training experience. However, anatomical symmetry significant correlated to the kinematic symmetry, and the most trained subjects showed the highest level of kinematic symmetry during running. Results suggest that despite the significant effects of anatomical asymmetry on kinematics, either those changes are too small to affect economy or some plastic compensation in the locomotor system mitigates the hypothesized change in energy expenditure of running

Enhancing stroke risk prediction in patients with transient ischemic attack: insights from a prospective cohort study implementing fast-track care

Background and aimsFast-track care have been proved to reduce the short-term risk of stroke after transient ischemic attack (TIA). We aimed to investigate stroke risk and to characterize short- and long-term stroke predictors in a large cohort of TIA patients undergoing fast-track management.MethodsProspective study, enrolling consecutive TIA patients admitted to a Northern Italy emergency department from August 2010 to December 2017. All patients underwent fast-track care within 24 h of admission. The primary outcome was defined as the first stroke recurrence at 90 days, 12 and 60 months after TIA. Stroke incidence with 95% confidence interval (CI) at each timepoint was calculated using Poisson regression. Predictors of stroke recurrence were evaluated with Cox regression analysis. The number needed to treat (NNT) of fast-track care in preventing 90-day stroke recurrence in respect to the estimates based on baseline ABCD2 score was also calculated.ResultsWe enrolled 1,035 patients (54.2% males). Stroke incidence was low throughout the follow-up with rates of 2.2% [95% CI 1.4–3.3%] at 90 days, 2.9% [95% CI 1.9–4.2%] at 12 months and 7.1% [95% CI 5.4–9.0%] at 60 months. Multiple TIA, speech disturbances and presence of ischemic lesion at neuroimaging predicted stroke recurrence at each timepoint. Male sex and increasing age predicted 90-day and 60-month stroke risk, respectively. Hypertension was associated with higher 12-month and 60-month stroke risk. No specific TIA etiology predicted higher stroke risk throughout the follow-up. The NNT for fast-track care in preventing 90-day stroke was 14.5 [95% CI 11.3–20.4] in the overall cohort and 6.8 [95% CI 4.6–13.5] in patients with baseline ABCD2 of 6 to 7.ConclusionOur findings support the effectiveness of fast-track care in preventing both short- and long-term stroke recurrence after TIA. Particular effort should be made to identify and monitor patients with baseline predictors of higher stroke risk, which may vary according to follow-up duration

The XXL Survey: VI. The 1000 brightest X-ray point sources

X-ray extragalactic surveys are ideal laboratories for the study of the evolution and clustering of active galactic nuclei (AGN). The XXL Survey spans two fields of a combined 50 $deg^2$ observed for more than 6Ms with XMM-Newton, occupying the parameter space between deep surveys and very wide area surveys; at the same time it benefits from a wealth of ancillary data. This paper marks the first release of the XXL point source catalogue selected in the 2-10 keV energy band with limiting flux $F_{2-10keV}=4.8\cdot10^{-14}\rm{erg\,s^{-1}\,cm^{-2}}$. We use both public and proprietary data sets to identify the counterparts of the X-ray point-like sources and improved upon the photometric redshift determination for AGN by applying a Random Forest classification trained to identify for each object the optimal photometric redshift model library. We also assign a probability to each source to be a star or an outlier. We model with Bayesian analysis the X-ray spectra assuming a power-law model with the presence of an absorbing medium. We find an average unabsorbed photon index of $\Gamma=1.85$ and average hydrogen column density $\log{N_{H}}=21.07 cm^{-2}$. We find no trend of $\Gamma$ or $N_H$ with redshift and a fraction of 26% absorbed sources ($\log N_{H}>22$). We show that the XXL-1000-AGN number counts extended the number counts of the COSMOS survey to higher fluxes and are fully consistent with the Euclidean expectation. We constrain the intrinsic luminosity function of AGN in the 2-10 keV energy band where the unabsorbed X-ray flux is estimated from the X-ray spectral fit up to z=3. Finally, we demonstrate the presence of a supercluster size structure at redshift 0.14, identified by means of percolation analysis of the XXL-1000-AGN sample. The XXL survey, reaching a medium flux limit and covering a wide area is a stepping stone between current deep fields and planned wide area surveys

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio