Norges Banks oppgjørssystem : Årsrapport 2024

Formålet med Norges Banks oppgjørssystem (NBO) er å gjennomføre sikre og effektive oppgjør av betalinger mellom banker som har konto i Norges Bank. Årsrapporten omhandler hovedaktiviteter og tiltak for å ivareta formålet.publishedVersio

Policy rate kept unchanged

Introductory statement by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the press conference following the announcement of the policy rate on 27 March 2025.publishedVersio

Modeller for å anslå årslønnsveksten

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Monetary policy and the exchange rate in Norway

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The krone exchange rate and altered expectations

Speech by Ole Christian Bech-Moen, Executive Director of Monetary Policy, at “Valutaseminaret”, the annual seminar of the Association of Norwegian Economists, 30 January 2025.publishedVersio

Relationship lending and monetary policy pass-through

This paper investigates the link between bank-firm lending relationships and monetary policy pass-through, focusing on episodes of low interest rates. Using administrative tax and bank supervisory data ranging from 1997 to 2019, we track the entirety of bank-firm relationships in Norway. Our analysis shows that when the central bank’s policy rate is relatively low, firms that have maintained a long-term relationship with their bank experience a lower pass-through of further policy rate cuts. Specifically, we find that when the policy rate is 1.09%, each additional year of relationship decreases the pass-through of a rate cut by 2.7 percentage points. We propose a theoretical model to rationalize Our empirical findings, where state-dependent differential pass-through results from the presence of firms’ switching costs and banks’ leverage constraint. The model highlights that the composition of relationship lengths in the economy matters for aggregate monetary policy pass-through. The proportion of long-term relationships in the Norwegian economy significantly increased after the global Financial crisis. Using the model, we calculate a counterfactual aggregate pass-through for 2017, a period of monetary easing in a low-rate environment, assuming this proportion had remained at its pre-crisis level. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in aggregate pass-through, on the order of 20%.publishedVersio

Trolig setter vi renten ned i mars

Sentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning på pressekonferanse om rentebeslutningen 23. januar 2025.publishedVersio

Trend inflation in Japanese pre-2000s : a Markov-switching DSGE

In Japan, the inflation rate declined to near-zero, whereas the monetary policy faced a zero lower bound (ZLB) in the 1990s. We examine whether trend inflation had fallen to near-zero prior to the ZLB. To achieve this, we estimate Japanese pre-2000 trend inflation developing a Markov-switching New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which non-zero trend inflation is explicitly Incorporated as a Markov chain state. Our estimation results indicate that (i) the trend inflation remained broadly stable at 3.0–3.5 percent from the 1960s to the late 1970s prior to the second Global Oil Crisis. (ii) Then, over time, trend inflation gradually declined to nearly 1.0 percent toward the Plaza Accord in 1985. (iii) Up until 1997 when the ZLB was hit, trend inflation hovered well above zero, mostly near 1.0 percent.publishedVersio

Norges Bank : annual report 2024

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Monetary policy report 1/2025

The monetary policy strategy describes the Committee’s interpretation of the mandate for monetary policy and provides a framework for the Committee’s assessments of the appropriate monetary policy reaction to different shocks. A summary of the strategy is provided here and published in full on Norges Bank’s web pages. Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.5 percent at its meeting on 26 March. There is uncertainty about future economic developments, but the Committee’s current assessment of the outlook implies that the policy rate will most likely be reduced in the course of 2025.publishedVersio