Meaningful characterisation of perturbative theoretical uncertainties

We consider the problem of assigning a meaningful degree of belief to uncertainty estimates of perturbative series. We analyse the assumptions which are implicit in the conventional estimates made using renormalisation scale variations. We then formulate a Bayesian model that, given equivalent initial hypotheses, allows one to characterise a perturbative theoretical uncertainty in a rigorous way in terms of a credibility interval for the remainder of the series. We compare its outcome to the conventional uncertainty estimates in the simple case of the calculation of QCD corrections to the e+e- -> hadrons process. We find comparable results, but with important conceptual differences. This work represents a first step in the direction of a more comprehensive and rigorous handling of theoretical uncertainties in perturbative calculations used in high energy phenomenology.Comment: 28 pages, 5 figures. Language modified in order to make it more 'bayesian'. No change in results. Version published in JHE

Extracting the rho meson wavefunction from HERA data

We extract the light-cone wavefunctions of the rho meson using the HERA data on diffractive rho photoproduction. We find good agreement with predictions for the distribution amplitude based on QCD sum rules and from the lattice. We also find that the data prefer a transverse wavefunction with enhanced end-point contributions.Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, significant improvements over the original version with a new section on distribution amplitudes adde

On the Energy Dependence of the Dipole-Proton Cross Section in Deep Inelastic Scattering

We study the dipole picture of high-energy virtual-photon-proton scattering. It is shown that different choices for the energy variable in the dipole cross section used in the literature are not related to each other by simple arguments equating the typical dipole size and the inverse photon virtuality, contrary to what is often stated. We argue that the good quality of fits to structure functions that use Bjorken-x as the energy variable - which is strictly speaking not justified in the dipole picture - can instead be understood as a consequence of the sign of scaling violations that occur for increasing Q^2 at fixed small x. We show that the dipole formula for massless quarks has the structure of a convolution. From this we obtain derivative relations between the structure function F_2 at large and small Q^2 and the dipole-proton cross section at small and large dipole size r, respectively.Comment: 27 page

W boson production at hadron colliders: the lepton charge asymmetry in NNLO QCD

We consider the production of W bosons in hadron collisions, and the subsequent leptonic decay W->lnu_l. We study the asymmetry between the rapidity distributions of the charged leptons, and we present its computation up to the next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) in QCD perturbation theory. Our calculation includes the dependence on the lepton kinematical cuts that are necessarily applied to select W-> lnu_l events in actual experimental analyses at hadron colliders. We illustrate the main differences between the W and lepton charge asymmetry, and we discuss their physical origin and the effect of the QCD radiative corrections. We show detailed numerical results on the charge asymmetry in ppbar collisions at the Tevatron, and we discuss the comparison with some of the available data. Some illustrative results on the lepton charge asymmetry in pp collisions at LHC energies are presented.Comment: 37 pages, 21 figure

Extracting the Distribution Amplitudes of the rho meson from the Color Glass Condensate

We extract the leading twist-2 and subleading twist-3 Distribution Amplitudes (DAs) of the rho meson using the HERA data on diffractive rho photoproduction. We do so using several Colour Glass Condensate (CGC) inspired and a Regge inspired dipole models. We find that our extracted twist-2 DA is not much model dependent and is consistent with QCD Sum Rules and lattice predictions. The extracted twist-3 DA is more model dependent but is still consistent with the Sum Rules prediction.Comment: 21 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables. Section 6 revised, figures 8 and 9 and table 3 updated. Conclusions essentially unchange

Overweight/Obesity and Respiratory and Allergic Disease in Children: International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) Phase Two

BackgroundChildhood obesity and asthma are increasing worldwide. A possible link between the two conditions has been postulated.MethodsCross-sectional studies of stratified random samples of 8–12-year-old children (n = 10 652) (16 centres in affluent and 8 centres in non-affluent countries) used the standardized methodology of ISAAC Phase Two. Respiratory and allergic symptoms were ascertained by parental questionnaires. Tests for allergic disease were performed. Height and weight were measured, and overweight and obesity were defined according to international definitions. Prevalence rates and prevalence odds ratios were calculated.ResultsOverweight (odds ratio = 1.14, 95%-confidence interval: 0.98; 1.33) and obesity (odds ratio = 1.67, 95%-confidence interval: 1.25; 2.21) were related to wheeze. The relationship was stronger in affluent than in non-affluent centres. Similar results were found for cough and phlegm, rhinitis and eczema but the associations were mostly driven by children with wheeze. There was a clear association of overweight and obesity with airways obstruction (change in FEV1/FVC, −0.90, 95%-confidence interval: −1.33%; −0.47%, for overweight and −2.46%, 95%-confidence interval: −3.84%; −1.07%, for obesity) whereas the results for the other objective markers, including atopy, were null.ConclusionsOur data from a large international child population confirm that there is a strong relation of body mass index with wheeze especially in affluent countries. Moreover, body mass index is associated with an objective marker of airways obstruction (FEV1/FVC) but no other objective markers of respiratory and allergic disorders

Optimising Management of Patients with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction in Primary Care (OPTIMISE-HFpEF): rationale and protocol for a multi-method study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is less well understood than heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), with greater diagnostic difficulty and management uncertainty. AIM: The primary aim is to develop an optimised programme that is informed by the needs and experiences of people with HFpEF and healthcare providers. This article presents the rationale and protocol for the Optimising Management of Patients with Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction in Primary Care (OPTIMISE-HFpEF) research programme. DESIGN & SETTING: This is a multi-method programme of research conducted in the UK. METHOD: OPTIMISE-HFpEF is a multi-site programme of research with three distinct work packages (WPs). WP1 is a systematic review of heart failure disease management programmes (HF-DMPs) tested in patients with HFpEF. WP2 has three components (a, b, c) that enable the characteristics, needs, and experiences of people with HFpEF, their carers, and healthcare providers to be understood. Qualitative enquiry (WP2a) with patients and providers will be conducted in three UK sites exploring patient and provider perspectives, with an additional qualitative component (WP2c) in one site to focus on transitions in care and carer perspectives. A longitudinal cohort study (WP2b), recruiting from four UK sites, will allow patients to be characterised and their illness trajectory observed across 1 year of follow-up. Finally, WP3 will synthesise the findings and conduct work to gain consensus on how best to identify and manage this patient group. RESULTS: Results from the four work packages will be synthesised to produce a summary of key learning points and possible solutions (optimised programme) which will be presented to a broad spectrum of stakeholders to gain consensus on a way forward. CONCLUSION: HFpEF is often described as the greatest unmet need in cardiology. The OPTIMISE-HFpEF programme aims to address this need in primary care, which is arguably the most appropriate setting for managing HFpEF.NIHR National School for Primary Care Researc

Measurement of the tt¯ production cross-section as a function of jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum in 7 TeV proton-proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

The tt¯ production cross-section dependence on jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum is reported for proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV in the single-lepton channel. The data were collected with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and comprise the full 2011 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. Differential cross-sections are presented as a function of the jet multiplicity for up to eight jets using jet transverse momentum thresholds of 25, 40, 60, and 80 GeV, and as a function of jet transverse momentum up to the fifth jet. The results are shown after background subtraction and corrections for all known detector effects, within a kinematic range closely matched to the experimental acceptance. Several QCD-based Monte Carlo models are compared with the results. Sensitivity to the parton shower modelling is found at the higher jet multiplicities, at high transverse momentum of the leading jet and in the transverse momentum spectrum of the fifth leading jet. The MC@NLO+HERWIG MC is found to predict too few events at higher jet multiplicities

Fitting Parton Distribution Data with Multiplicative Normalization Uncertainties

We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties lead to systematic biases. We develop a method which is unbiased, based on a self--consistent iterative procedure. We demonstrate the use of this method by applying it to the determination of parton distribution functions with the NNPDF methodology, which uses a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty estimation

Parton distributions for the LHC run II

We present NNPDF3.0, the first set of parton distribution functions (PDFs) determined with a methodology validated by a closure test. NNPDF3.0 uses a global dataset including HERA-II deep-inelastic inclusive cross-sections, the combined HERA charm data, jet production from ATLAS and CMS, vector boson rapidity and transverse momentum distributions from ATLAS, CMS and LHCb, W+c data from CMS and top quark pair production total cross sections from ATLAS and CMS. Results are based on LO, NLO and NNLO QCD theory and also include electroweak corrections. To validate our methodology, we show that PDFs determined from pseudo-data generated from a known underlying law correctly reproduce the statistical distributions expected on the basis of the assumed experimental uncertainties. This closure test ensures that our methodological uncertainties are negligible in comparison to the generic theoretical and experimental uncertainties of PDF determination. This enables us to determine with confidence PDFs at different perturbative orders and using a variety of experimental datasets ranging from HERA-only up to a global set including the latest LHC results, all using precisely the same validated methodology. We explore some of the phenomenological implications of our results for the upcoming 13 TeV Run of the LHC, in particular for Higgs production cross-sections.Comment: 151 pages, 69 figures. More typos corrected: published versio