Neutrino hierarchy from CP-blind observables with high density magnetized detectors

High density magnetized detectors are well suited to exploit the outstanding purity and intensities of novel neutrino sources like Neutrino Factories and Beta Beams. They can also provide independent measurements of leptonic mixing parameters through the observation of atmospheric muon-neutrinos. In this paper, we discuss the combination of these observables from a multi-kton iron detector and a high energy Beta Beam; in particular, we demonstrate that even with moderate detector granularities the neutrino mass hierarchy can be determined for $\theta_{13}$ values greater than 4$^\circ$.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures. Added a new section discussing systematic errors (sec 5.2); sec.5.1 and 4 have been extended. Version to appear in EPJ

Theoretical study of lepton events in the atmospheric neutrino experiments at SuperK

Super-Kamiokande has reported the results for the lepton events in the atmospheric neutrino experiment. These results have been presented for a 22.5kT water fiducial mass on an exposure of 1489 days, and the events are divided into sub-GeV, multi-GeV and PC events. We present a study of nuclear medium effects in the sub-GeV energy region of atmospheric neutrino events for the quasielastic scattering, incoherent and coherent pion production processes, as they give the most dominant contribution to the lepton events in this energy region. We have used the atmospheric neutrino flux given by Honda et al. These calculations have been done in the local density approximation. We take into account the effect of Pauli blocking, Fermi motion, Coulomb effect, renormalization of weak transition strengths in the nuclear medium in the case of the quasielastic reactions. The inelastic reactions leading to production of leptons along with pions is calculated in a $\Delta$- dominance model by taking into account the renormalization of $\Delta$ properties in the nuclear medium and the final state interaction effects of the outgoing pions with the residual nucleus. We present the results for the lepton events obtained in our model with and without nuclear medium effects, and compare them with the Monte Carlo predictions used in the simulation and the experimentally observed events reported by the Super-Kamiokande collaboration.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figure

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation