15 research outputs found
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe
Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.2), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.Peer reviewe
Patient preferences for the treatment of chronic cough: a discrete choice experiment
Background Chronic cough is common, negatively affects quality of life and has limited treatment options. Inhibition of purinergic signalling is a promising therapeutic approach but is associated with taste-related adverse effects. Little is known about treatment preferences from the perspective of patients with chronic cough, such as trade-offs between efficacy and side effect.Methods Patients with chronic cough completed an online discrete choice experiment survey in which they answered a series of questions requiring a choice between two constructed treatment options characterised by varying attribute levels. Selection of cough and taste-related attributes was informed by qualitative interviews and clinical trial data. Logit-based models were used to analyse resulting choice data.Results The discrete choice experiment survey was completed by 472 participants with chronic cough. Among study attributes, frequency of intense cough attacks was the most important to participants, followed by taste change, frequency of night-time coughing and frequency of daytime coughing. To accept the least preferred taste disturbance of a bitter, metallic, chalky or oily taste change, participants required either: (1) elimination of night-time cough along with a slight reduction in daytime cough; (2) elimination of daytime cough along with a pronounced reduction in night-time or (3) reduction in intense cough attacks from 7 to 2 times per week. Two distinct preference patterns were identified, each placing different importance on efficacy versus side effect trade-offs.Conclusions Participants with chronic cough were willing to accept some taste disturbances in exchange for improved efficacy of chronic cough treatments. Knowledge of patient preferences can facilitate shared decision-making
ENDOVASCULAR RECANALIZATION OF SUPERFICIAL FEMORAL ARTERY CHRONIC TOTAL OCCLUSIONS: A MULTI-DISCIPLINARY, SINGLE CENTER EXPERIENCE
Prevalence and significance of clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential in lung transplant recipients
Abstract Background Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related acquisition of somatic mutations that leads to an expanded blood cell clone, has been associated with development of a pro-inflammatory state. An enhanced or dysregulated inflammatory response may contribute to rejection after lung transplantation, however the prevalence of CHIP in lung recipients and influence of CHIP on allograft outcomes is unknown. Methods We analyzed whole-exome sequencing data in 279 lung recipients to detect CHIP, defined by pre-specified somatic mutations in 74 genes known to promote clonal expansion of hematopoietic stem cells. We compared the burden of acute rejection (AR) over the first post-transplant year in lung recipients with vs. without CHIP using multivariable ordinal regression. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between CHIP and CLAD-free survival. An exploratory analysis evaluated the association between the number of CHIP-associated variants and chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD)-free survival. Results We detected 64 CHIP-associated mutations in 45 individuals (15.7%), most commonly in TET2 (10.8%), DNMT3A (9.2%), and U2AF1 (9.2%). Patients with CHIP tended to be older but did not significantly differ from patients without CHIP in terms of race or native lung disease. Patients with CHIP did not have a higher incidence of AR over the first post-transplant year (p = 0.45) or a significantly increased risk of death or CLAD (adjusted HR 1.25, 95% CI 0.88–1.78). We did observe a significant association between the number of CHIP variants and CLAD-free survival, specifically patients with 2 or more CHIP-associated variants had an increased risk for death or CLAD (adjusted HR 3.79, 95% CI 1.98–7.27). Conclusions Lung recipients have a higher prevalence of CHIP and a larger variety of genes with CHIP-associated mutations compared with previous reports for the general population. CHIP did not increase the risk of AR, CLAD, or death in lung recipients
Disparities in Lung Transplant among Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis
Rationale: Lung transplant offers the potential to extend life for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF); yet, this therapeutic modality is only available to a small proportion of patients.
Objectives: To identify clinical characteristics and social determinants of health that differentially associate with lung transplant compared with death in patients with IPF.
Methods: We evaluated data from the Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Prospective Outcomes (IPF-PRO) Registry, a multicenter U.S. registry of patients with IPF that was diagnosed or confirmed at the enrolling center in the previous 6 months. Patients were enrolled between June 2014 and October 2018. Patients who were listed for lung transplant were not eligible to enroll in the registry, but patients could be listed for transplant after enrollment. We performed a multivariable time-to-event analysis incorporating competing risks methodology to examine differential associations between prespecified covariates and the risk of lung transplant versus death. Covariates included factors related to lung transplant eligibility, clinical characteristics of IPF, and social determinants of health. Covariates were modeled as time independent or time dependent as appropriate.
Results: Among 955 patients with IPF, event rates of lung transplant and death were 7.4% and 16.3%, respectively, at 2 years. Covariates with the strongest differential association were age, median zip code income, and enrollment at a center with a lung transplant program. Lung transplant was less likely (hazard ratio [HR], 0.13 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.06-0.28] per 5-yr increase) and death more likely (HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.22-1.64] per 5-yr increase) among those older than 70 years of age. Higher median zip code income was associated with lung transplant (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.13-1.31] per 10,000 increase). Enrollment at a center with a lung transplant program was associated with lung transplant (HR, 4.31 [95% CI, 1.76-10.54]) but not death (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.69-1.43]). Oxygen use with activity was associated with both lung transplant and death, but more strongly with lung transplant. A higher number of comorbidities was associated with an increased likelihood of death but not lung transplant.
Conclusions: For patients in the Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Prospective Outcomes Registry, median zip code income and access to a lung transplant center differentially impact the risk of lung transplant compared with death, regardless of disease severity measures or other transplant eligibility factors. Interventions are needed to mitigate inequalities in lung transplantation based on socioeconomic status
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Disease Severity and Quality of Life in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the IPF-PRO Registry
Limited data are available on the association between clinically measured disease severity markers and quality of life (QOL) in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The study examined the associations between objective disease severity metrics and QOL in a contemporary IPF population.
This study evaluated baseline data from patients enrolled in the multicenter, US-based Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Prospective Outcomes Registry between June 2014 and July 2018. Disease severity metrics included FVC % predicted, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (Dlco) % predicted, supplemental oxygen use with activity, supplemental oxygen use at rest, and two summary scores (the Gender-Age-Lung Physiology index, based on gender, age, and % predicted values for Dlco and FVC; and the Composite Physiologic Index, based on % predicted values for Dlco, FVC, and FEV
). Multivariable adjusted regression models were used to examine cross-sectional associations between each severity measure and St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score.
Among 829 patients with complete SGRQ data, the median (interquartile range) SGRQ score at enrollment was 40 (26-53), with higher scores indicating worse QOL. Modest SGRQ impairments were observed with increasing Gender-Age-Lung Physiology score (2.9 [1.8-4.0] per 1-point increase] and with increasing Composite Physiologic Index scores (3.0 [2.4-3.6] per 5-point increase). Substantial SGRQ impairments were observed for oxygen use with activity (15.6 [12.9-18.2]), oxygen use at rest (16.2 [13.0-19.4]), and decreasing Dlco (5.0 [4.0-6.1] per 10% decrease in % predicted).
Objective measures of disease severity, including severity scores, physiologic parameters, and supplemental oxygen use, are associated with worse QOL in patients with IPF.
ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01915511; URL: www.clinicaltrials.gov