43 research outputs found
Informing the measurement of wellbeing among young people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa for policy evaluations: a mixed-methods systematic review
Young people living with HIV (YPLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are at high risk of having a poor quality of life. Addressing wellbeing explicitly within HIV/AIDS policies could assist mitigation efforts. However, guidance on wellbeing measures to evaluate policies for YPLHIV is scarce. The aims of this mixed-methods review were to identify: i) key dimensions of wellbeing and ii) wellbeing measures that align to these dimensions among YPLHIV (15–24 years) in SSA. We searched six social science and medical databases, including grey literature. We included studies that examined correlates and lived experiences of wellbeing, among YPLHIV in SSA, from January 2000 to May 2019. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts and full texts and assessed methodological quality of included articles. We analysed quantitative and qualitative data using descriptive and meta-ethnographic approaches, respectively. Thereafter, we integrated findings using a framework approach. We identified 6527 citations. Of these, 10 quantitative and 30 qualitative studies were included. Being male, higher educational status, less stigma and more social support were likely correlates of wellbeing. Themes that shaped experiences suggestive of wellbeing were: 1) acceptance and belonging— stigma, social support; 2) coping; 3) standard of living. Our final synthesis found that the following dimensions potentially characterise wellbeing: self-acceptance, belonging, autonomy; positive relations, environmental mastery, purpose in life. Wellbeing for YPLHIV is multi-dimensional and relational. Relevant measures include the Personal Wellbeing Index, Ryff’s Psychological Wellbeing Scale and Mental Health Continuum Short Form. However, psychometric evaluations of these scales among YPLHIV in SSA are needed
Decomposing the gap in missed opportunities for vaccination between poor and non-poor in sub-Saharan Africa : a multicountry analyses
Understanding the gaps in MOV between poor and non-poor in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) would enable an understanding of factors associated with interventions for improving immunization coverage to achieving universal childhood immunization. We aimed to conduct a multicountry analyses to decompose the gap in MOV between poor and non-poor in SSA. We used cross-sectional data from 35 Demographic and Health Surveys in SSA conducted between 2007 and 2016. Descriptive statistics were used to understand the gap in MOV between the urban poor and non-poor, and across the selected covariates. Out of the 35 countries included in this analysis, 19 countries showed pro-poor inequality, five showed pro-non-poor inequality and remaining 11 countries showed no statistically significant inequality. Among the countries with statistically significant pro-illiterate inequality, the risk difference ranged from 4.2% in Congo DR to 20.1% in Kenya. The important factors responsible for the inequality varied across the countries. In Madagascar, the largest contributions to the inequality in MOV was media access followed by number of under-five children and maternal education. However, Liberia media access narrowed the inequality in MOV between poor and non-poor households.The findings indicate that in most SSA countries, children belonging to poor households are most likely to have MOV and that socio-economic inequality in missed opportunities for vaccination is determined not only by health system functions, but also by factors beyond the scope of health authorities and care delivery system. Suggesting the the importance of addressing the social determinants of health, particularly education
Rural-urban disparities in missed opportunities for vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa : a multi-country decomposition analyses
Background
In this study, we aimed to explore the rural-urban disparities in the magnitude and determinants of missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) in sub-Saharan Africa.
Methods
This was a cross-sectional study using nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2007 and 2017 in 35 countries across sub-Saharan Africa. The risk difference in MOV between rural or urban dwellers were calculated. Logistic regression method was used to investigate the urban-rural disparities in multivariable analyses. Then Blinder-Oaxaca method was used to decompose differences in MOV between rural and urban dwellers.
Results
The median number of children aged 12 to 23 months was 2113 (Min: 370, Max: 5896). There was wide variation in the the magnitude of MOV among children in rural and urban areas across the 35 countries. The magnitude of MOV in rural areas varied from 18.0% (95% CI 14.7 to 21.4) in the Gambia to 85.2% (81.2 to 88.9) in Gabon. Out of the 35 countries included in this analysis, pro-rural inequality was observed in 16 countries (i.e. MOV is prevalent among children living in rural areas) and pro-urban inequality in five countries (i.e. MOV is prevalent among children living in urban areas). The contributions of the compositional ‘explained’ and structural ‘unexplained’ components varied across the countries. However, household wealth index was the most frequently identified factor.
Conclusions
Variation exists in the level of missed opportunities for vaccination between rural and urban areas, with widespread pro-rural inequalities across Africa. Although several factors account for these rural-urban disparities in various countries, household wealth was the most common
Effectiveness of the female condom in preventing HIV and sexually transmitted infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Abstract
Background
The effectiveness of female condoms for preventing HIV and sexually transmitted infections (STIs) remains inconclusive. We examined the effects of female condoms on the acquisition of HIV and STIs.
Methods
We searched four databases, two trial registries, and reference lists of relevant publications in October 2018 and updated our search in February 2020. We screened search output, evaluated study eligibility, and extracted data in duplicate; resolving differences through discussion. We calculated the effective sample size of cluster randomised trials using an intra-cluster correlation coefficient of 0·03. Data from similar studies were combined in a meta-analysis. We performed a non-inferiority analysis of new condoms relative to marketed ones using a non-inferiority margin of 3%. We assessed the certainty of evidence using GRADE.
Results
We included fifteen studies of 6921 women. We found that polyurethane female condoms (FC1) plus male condoms may be as effective as male condoms only in reducing HIV acquisition (1 trial, n = 149 women, RR 0.07, 95%CI 0.00–1.38; low-certainty evidence). However, the use of FC1 plus male condoms is superior to male condoms alone in reducing the acquisition of gonorrhoea (2 trials, n = 790, RR 0.59, 95%CI 0.41–0.86; high-certainty evidence) and chlamydia (2 trials, n = 790, RR 0.67, 95%CI 0.47–0.94; high-certainty evidence). Adverse events and failure rates of FC1 were very low and decreased during follow up. Although the functionality of newer female condoms (Woman’s, Cupid, Pheonurse, Velvet, and Reddy) may be non-inferior to FC2, there were no available studies assessing their efficacy in preventing HIV and STIs.
Conclusion
The use of female plus male condoms is more effective than use of male condoms only in preventing STIs and may be as effective as the male condom only in preventing HIV. There is a need for well conducted studies assessing the effects of newer female condoms on HIV and STIs.
PROSPERO registration number
CRD4201809071
Creating a best practice template for participant communication plans in global health clinical studies
Background
Clinical trial participants have a right to be informed throughout the entire process of human subject research. As part of this pillar of research ethics, participants and other stakeholders should be made aware of research findings after a trial has been completed. Though participants have both a right, and a desire to be informed of research outcomes, studies show that they rarely receive communication about study findings. Our aim was (1) to understand what, if any, role communication plans play in current global health clinical research protocols and (2) to use our findings to develop a communication plan template tailored to clinical research carried out in low-and-middle-income countries (LMIC) while minimizing colonial assumptions. While the template was drafted in the LMIC context, the principles are universally applicable and should be considered best practices for all global health clinical trials.
Methods
We carried out a mixed-method study over a period of 6 months to understand the role of communication with study participants and other stakeholders in clinical trials. The semiquantitative analysis included mining publicly available clinical trial protocols for communication-related language. Qualitative interviews (n = 7) were used to gather knowledge and insight from clinical trial experts to inform the development of a communication plan template.
Results
None of the 48 mined clinical trial protocols included a communication plan. Of the 48, 21% (n = 21) protocols included communication-related language, and 10% (n = 5) described plans to share trial results with participants.
Conclusion
The use of communication plans in global health clinical trials is lacking. To our knowledge, this is the first in-depth analysis of communication plans in clinical trials to date. We recommend that researchers utilize the developed communication plan template throughout the entire research process to ensure a human-centered approach to participant communication. This communication plan should apply to all phases of a research trial, with a particular emphasis on plans to share results in an accessible and engaging manner once the trial has been completed
HIV-1 integrase resistance associated mutations and the use of dolutegravir in Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis protocol
Background: Sub-Saharan Africa carries the greatest burden of HIV-infection with increasing drug resistance burden, which requires improved patient management and monitoring. Current WHO recommendations suggest transitioning to dolutegravir-based (adults) or raltegravir-based-regimens (neonates) for initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) and as a suitable alternative in cases of multi-resistance in resource-limited settings. This review aims at synthesizing the current knowledge on dolutegravir use and integrase resistance-associated mutations found before the wide use of dolutegravir-based regimens. Methods: This systematic review will include randomized and non-randomized trials, cohort, and cross-sectional studies published on dolutegravir use or integrase resistance-associated mutations in Sub-Saharan Africa. Searches will be conducted (from 2007 onwards) in PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILAC), Web of Science, African Journals Online, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases. Hand searching of the reference lists of relevant reviews and trials will be conducted and we will also look for conference abstracts. We will include studies of adults and/or children exposed to integrase inhibitors-based therapies; especially dolutegravir or raltegravir (which is our intervention of interest as compared to other antiretroviral regimens). We will exclude studies of patients with specific co-morbidities such as tuberculosis or opportunistic infections. Primary outcomes will be "the rate of viral suppression" and "the level of drug resistance" on integrase inhibitor-based regimens among patients in Sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary outcomes will be "the effect of baseline viremia on viral suppression," "the effect of treatment duration on viral suppression," "the proportion of patients with immune recovery," "the rate of non-adherence," "rate of adverse events;" "drug resistance according to different integrase inhibitor-based regimens," and "drug resistance according to viral subtypes/recombinants." Two reviewers will independently screen titles and abstracts, assess the full texts for eligibility, and extract data. If data permits, random effects models will be used where appropriate. Subgroup and additional analyses will be conducted to explore the potential sources of heterogeneity (e.g., age, sex, baseline viremia, CD4 following treatment, treatment duration, and adherence level). Discussion: This review will help to strengthen evidence on the effectiveness of integrase strand transfer inhibitors by contributing to current knowledge on the use of dolutegravir and/or raltegravir (especially for neonates) in Sub-Saharan Africa. Results will therefore help in setting-up baseline data for an optimal management of people living with HIV as Sub-Saharan African countries are transitioning to dolutegravir-based regimens. Evidence will also support HIV/AIDS programs in identifying gaps and actions to be undertaken for improved long-term care and treatment of people living with HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD42019122424
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2017 includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.
How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations.
Methods
We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
Findings
In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.
Interpretation
By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning