Tehohoitopotilaiden neuromonitorointi

In critical illness the risk of neurological insults is high, whether because of the illness itself, or as a treatment complication. As a result, the length of hospital stay and the risk of both further morbidity and mortality are all roughly doubled. One of the major challenges is the inability to monitor a sedated, mechanically ventilated patient’s neurological symptoms during intensive care treatment, due to a lack of reliable methods. The aims of this thesis research were to identify and test potential non-invasive methods, which would be predictive of neurological outcome, showing potential as neuromonitoring methods of critical care patients unable to self-report. As a guiding theme, all tested methods could be applied to actual critical care with relative ease. Patients were included from two groups with a notably high incidence of neurological complications, namely acute liver failure patients with hepatic encephalopathy (I), and aortic surgery patients operated during hypothermic circulatory arrest (II). The first group included 20 patients, and the latter 30 patients. Late mortality and quality of life was assessed for the aortic surgery patients (III), and the postoperative development of certain blood biomarkers (IV). The tested non-invasive neuromonitoring methods included electroencephalogram (EEG) variables from frontal or fronto-temporal abbreviated monitoring, frontal near-infrared spectroscopy, transcranial Doppler ultrasound measurements of the intracranial blood flow, and finally biomarkers. The last included established biomarkers with an association with neurological complications, namely neuron-specific enolase, and protein S100β, and several interesting biomarkers normally associated with tumours and pancreatitis. Of the tested methods, the frontal EEG variables showed greatest promise, but the addition of the temporal channels did not increase sensitivity. Spectral EEG variables were predictive of the stage of hepatic encephalopathy (I), while a novel EEG variable called wavelet subband entropy was predictive of neurological outcome (I). The hemispheric asymmetry of frontal EEG was reasonably predictive of neurological outcome after aortic surgery (II). None of the other tested methods were predictive of outcome (I, II, IV), except protein S100β, which was significantly higher in the poor outcome group 48 to 72 hours after hypothermic circulatory arrest (II). The quality of life of aortic surgery patients was good after 5 to 8 years, and comparable with the general population of chronically ill patients (III). The aim of this explorative research was to identify and test non-invasive neuromonitoring methods, suitable for use in critical care. Based on the results, frontal EEG variables are promising and predict the grade of hepatic encephalopathy and neurological outcome. The other tested methods were not predictive of neurological outcome. The long-term quality of life of aortic surgery patients is very good, despite the high risk for neurological complications.Kriittisissä sairauksissa neurologisen komplikaation riski on suuri, sekä itse kriittisen sairauden että varsinaisen hoidon seurauksena. Haittatapahtuman johdosta sairaalahoidon kesto sekä sairastuvuuden ja kuolleisuuden riskit kaksinkertaistuvat. Yksi suurimmista haasteista on luotettavien menetelmien puute, joilla voitaisiin arvioida mekaanisen hengitystuen varassa olevan ja rauhoittavia lääkkeitä saavan potilaan neurologisia oireita tehohoidon aikana. Tämän väitöskirjatyön tarkoituksena oli tunnistaa ja testata lupaavia ei-kajoavia menetelmiä, jotka ennustaisivat neurologista lopputulosta, ja jotka soveltuisivat kriittisesti sairaan tehohoitopotilaan neuromonitorointiin. Kantavana teemana kaikki testatut menetelmät voitaisiin soveltaa kliiniseen työhön suhteellisen helposti. Potilaita kerättiin kahteen ryhmään, joissa neurologisten komplikaatioiden esiintyvyys on huomattavan suuri. Ensimmäinen ryhmä käsitti akuuttia maksan vajaatoimintaa ja hepaattista enkefalopatiaa sairastavat potilaat (I), toinen hypotermisen verenkierron pysäytyksen aikana rinta-aortan leikkauksen läpikäyvät potilaat (II). Ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuului 20 potilasta, jälkimmäiseen 30 potilasta. Aorttaleikatuilta potilailta arvioitiin myös elämänlaatua sekä myöhäiskuolleisuutta (III), lisäksi tiettyjen biomerkkiaineiden aorttaleikkauksen jälkeistä kehitystä ja soveltuvuutta neuromonitorointiin arvioitiin yhdessä osatyössä (IV). Tutkimuksessa arvioituihin ei-kajoaviin neuromonitorointimenetelmiin lukeutuivat otsa- ja ohimolohkon elektroenkefalografia (EEG), lähi-infrapunaspektroskopia, transkraniaalinen Doppler-ultraäänimittaus sekä verestä mitattavat biomerkkiaineet. Biomerkkiaineet kattoivat sekä vakiintuneita aivovauriota heijastavia merkkiaineita (hermostoperäinen enolaasi, proteiini S100β) että useita mielenkiintoisia merkkiaineita, jotka liittyvät kasvaintauteihin ja haimatulehdukseen. Testatuista menetelmistä otsalohkon EEG muuttujat olivat lupaavia, mutta ohimolohkon EEG lisääminen ei parantanut menetelmien herkkyyttä. EEG spektrimuuttujat ennustivat hepaattisen enkefalopatian astetta (I) luotettavasti, kun taas kokeellinen EEG-muuttuja (aalloke-alitaajuuden entropia) ennusti luotettavasti neurologista lopputulosta akuutin maksan vajaatoimintaa sairastavilla potilailla (I). Otsalohkon aivopuoliskojen EEG-rekisteröinnin hetkellinen epäsymmetria ennusti kohtalaisella tarkkuudella neurologisten päätetapahtumien esiintymisen aorttaleikatuilla potilailla (II). Muut testatut menetelmät eivät ennustaneet neurologista lopputulemaa (I, II, IV), paitsi proteiini S100β, joka oli merkittävästi korkeampi 48–72 tuntia leikkauksen jälkeen niillä potilailla, joiden neurologinen toipuminen oli huono (IV). Aorttaleikattujen potilaiden elämänlaatu oli hyvä 5–8 vuotta leikkauksen jälkeen ja verrattavissa kroonisesti sairaan väestön elämänlaatuun (III). Tämän kartoittavan tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli tunnistaa ja testata ei-kajoavia neuromonitorointimenetelmiä, jotka soveltuvat tehohoitoon. Tulosten perusteella otsalohkon EEG-muuttujat ennustavat hepaattisen enkefalopatian astetta sekä potilaan neurologista toipumista. Muut testatut menetelmät eivät ennustaneet neurologista toipumista luotettavasti. Aorttaleikattujen potilaiden pitkäaikainen (5–8 vuoden) terveyteen liittyvä elämänlaatu on erittäin hyvä, vaikka leikkaukseen liittyy korkea aivovaurion riski

Myös vasta-ainepuutokset on huomioitava

Vastine Seppo Merin kommenttiin SLL 71(44):2783, 2016Non peer reviewe

Meningokokkitaudin monet kasvot

Meningokokki (Neisseria meningitidis) aiheuttaa vaarallisia yleisinfektioita. Tyypillinen taudinkuva on aivokalvontulehdus tai sepsis. Tyyppioireita ovat korkea kuume, niskajäykkyys, petekiat ja sokkioireet. Kuolleisuus aivokalvotulehduksessa on 7 % ja septisessä sokissa jopa 50 %. Aikainen antibioottihoito on tärkein ennusteeseen vaikuttava tekijä. Joskus taudinkuva salakavala tai epätyypillinen, erityisesti seroryhmä W saattaa aiheuttaa märkäisiä ­niveltulehduksia, keuhkokuumeita tai nielun alueen tulehduksia (epiglottiitteja tai supraglottiitteja).Peer reviewe

Long-term improvement of symptoms of angina pectoris after successful revascularization of coronary artery chronic total occlusions

Objectives. To compare long-term angina pectoris relief of successful versus failed percutaneous coronary intervention of chronic total occlusions (CTO PCI). Background. Previous studies demonstrate better short-term angina pectoris relief of CTO PCI than with optimal medical treatment (OMT), however, data on the long-term effects are lacking. Methods. 295 patients undergoing CTO PCI were analyzed retrospectively, with a follow-up evaluation of symptoms of angina pectoris and all-cause death one to four years after the intervention. The primary outcome was long-term relief of symptoms of angina pectoris. Secondary outcomes included a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including all-cause death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and later target vessel revascularization (TVR). At follow-up, patients were interviewed for symptoms of angina pectoris at 1, 6, 12, and 22 to 48 months after the intervention. Results. CTO PCI was successful in 225 (76%) patients and failed in 70 (24%) patients. Short-term (six months) relief of angina pectoris was observed in both groups, but only the successful CTO PCI group showed long-term relief. The Kaplan-Meier curves of all-cause death did not differ between the groups (p = .715). The final follow-up was a mean (range) of 37 (25 to 44) months after the intervention in the successful CTO PCI group, and 33 (28 to 48) months in the failed CTO PCI group. Conclusions. Successful CTO PCI is associated with better long-term relief of symptoms of angina pectoris compared to failed CTO PCI.Peer reviewe

Novel insights on association and reactivity of Bispectral Index, frontal electromyogram, and autonomic responses in nociception-sedation monitoring of critical care patients

Peer reviewe

Dramatic increase in serum trypsinogens, SPINK1 and hCG beta in aortic surgery patients after hypothermic circulatory arrest

The concentrations of several diagnostic markers have been found to increase dramatically in critically ill patients with a severe disturbance of normal physiological homeostasis, without indication of the diseases they are normally associated with. To prevent false diagnoses and inappropriate treatments of critically ill patients, it is important that the markers aiding the selection of second-line treatments are evaluated in such patients and not only in the healthy population and patients with diseases the markers are associated with. The levels of trypsinogen isoenzymes, the trypsin inhibitor serine peptidase inhibitor Kazal type 1 (SPINK1), hCG and hCG beta, which are used as pancreatitis and cancer markers, were analyzed by immunoassays from serum samples of 17 adult patients who have undergone surgery of the ascending aorta during hypothermic circulatory arrest (HCA) with optional selective cerebral perfusion. Highly elevated levels of trypsinogen-1, -2 and -3, SPINK1 and hCG beta were observed in patients after HCA. This was accompanied by increased concentrations of S100 beta and NSE. In conclusion, this study highlights the importance of critically evaluating the markers used for aiding selection of second line of treatments in critically ill patients.Peer reviewe

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator