Approach for Predicting Production Scenarios Focused on Cross Impact Analysis

AbstractOne of the most consistent challenges in business is anticipating what the future holds and what impact it may have on current production systems. The scenario technique is a well-established method for developing and forecasting multiple future development paths for companies. However, this method is mostly employed to develop and to support strategic long-term decisions. The core idea of the approach introduced in this paper is to convey the future impact of today's decisions on production systems to employees involved in production planning processes. With the help of immersive visualization, performed in virtual reality (VR) systems, planning participants can perceive how the factory must adapt to fit future demands.In this paper, the focus is on the fourth phase of the scenario technique – so called scenario development – and, in particular, the cross impact analysis. With this methodology, the interrelations, or cross impacts of the different basic elements are determined. The cross impact analysis results serve as a basis for the development of a standardized tool that can be used to create probable production scenarios out of given production systems. This standardized tool will facilitate the usage of the scenario technique for factory planning projects, as it focuses the immense diversity of future uncertainties companies are faced with on the factory level

GSTT2 promoter polymorphisms and colorectal cancer risk

BACKGROUND: Glutathione S-transferases are a group of enzymes that participate in detoxification and defense mechanisms against toxic carcinogens and other compounds. These enzymes play an important role in human carcinogenesis. In the present study, we sought to determine whether GSTT2 promoter single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with colorectal cancer risk. METHODS: A total of 436 colorectal cancer patients and 568 healthy controls were genotyped for three GSTT2 promoter SNPs (-537G>A, -277T>C and -158G>A), using real-time TaqMan assay and direct sequencing. An electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) was performed to determine the effects of polymorphisms on protein binding to the GSTT2 promoter. RESULTS: The -537A allele (-537G/A or A/A) was significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk (OR = 1.373, p = 0.025), while the -158A allele (-158G/A or A/A) was involved in protection against colorectal cancer (OR = 0.539, p = 0.032). Haplotype 2 (-537A, -277T, -158G) was significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk (OR = 1.386, p = 0.021), while haplotype 4 (-537G, -277C, -158A) protected against colorectal cancer (OR = 0.539, p = 0.032). EMSA data revealed lower promoter binding activity in the -537A allele than its -537G counterpart. CONCLUSION: Our results collectively suggest that SNPs and haplotypes of the GSTT2 promoter region are associated with colorectal cancer risk in the Korean population

Evaluation of serum markers in the LRF CLL4 trial: β2-microglobulin but not serum free light chains, is an independent marker of overall survival.

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is characterized by heterogeneous clinical behavior and there is a need for improved biomarkers. The current study evaluated the prognostic significance of serum free light chains (sFLC, kappa, and lambda) and other serum markers (bar, serum thymidine kinase (sTK), soluble CD23, and LDH) together with established biomarkers in 289 patients enrolled into the LRF CLL4 trial. In a multivariable analysis of serum markers alone, higher big and kappa light chains were statistically significant in predicting disease progression and higher blg, and sTK in predicting mortality. In multivariable analysis for overall survival the following were independently significant: β2M levels, immunoglobulin gene (IGHV) mutational status (>98% homology), age, 17p13 deletions (>10%), and CD38 expression. β2M is the only serum marker that retained clear independent value as a biomarker in the LRF CLL4 trial and remains powerfully prognostic requiring evaluation in any future method of risk stratifying patients

The effectiveness, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for maltreated children and adolescents: an evidence synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment is a substantial social problem that affects large numbers of children and young people in the UK, resulting in a range of significant short- and long-term psychosocial problems. OBJECTIVES: To synthesise evidence of the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of interventions addressing the adverse consequences of child maltreatment. STUDY DESIGN: For effectiveness, we included any controlled study. Other study designs were considered for economic decision modelling. For acceptability, we included any study that asked participants for their views. PARTICIPANTS: Children and young people up to 24 years 11 months, who had experienced maltreatment before the age of 17 years 11 months. INTERVENTIONS: Any psychosocial intervention provided in any setting aiming to address the consequences of maltreatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Psychological distress [particularly post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety, and self-harm], behaviour, social functioning, quality of life and acceptability. METHODS: Young Persons and Professional Advisory Groups guided the project, which was conducted in accordance with Cochrane Collaboration and NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guidance. Departures from the published protocol were recorded and explained. Meta-analyses and cost-effectiveness analyses of available data were undertaken where possible. RESULTS: We identified 198 effectiveness studies (including 62 randomised trials); six economic evaluations (five using trial data and one decision-analytic model); and 73 studies investigating treatment acceptability. Pooled data on cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) for sexual abuse suggested post-treatment reductions in PTSD [standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.44 (95% CI -4.43 to -1.53)], depression [mean difference -2.83 (95% CI -4.53 to -1.13)] and anxiety [SMD -0.23 (95% CI -0.03 to -0.42)]. No differences were observed for post-treatment sexualised behaviour, externalising behaviour, behaviour management skills of parents, or parental support to the child. Findings from attachment-focused interventions suggested improvements in secure attachment [odds ratio 0.14 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.70)] and reductions in disorganised behaviour [SMD 0.23 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.42)], but no differences in avoidant attachment or externalising behaviour. Few studies addressed the role of caregivers, or the impact of the therapist-child relationship. Economic evaluations suffered methodological limitations and provided conflicting results. As a result, decision-analytic modelling was not possible, but cost-effectiveness analysis using effectiveness data from meta-analyses was undertaken for the most promising intervention: CBT for sexual abuse. Analyses of the cost-effectiveness of CBT were limited by the lack of cost data beyond the cost of CBT itself. CONCLUSIONS: It is not possible to draw firm conclusions about which interventions are effective for children with different maltreatment profiles, which are of no benefit or are harmful, and which factors encourage people to seek therapy, accept the offer of therapy and actively engage with therapy. Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. LIMITATIONS: Studies were largely conducted outside the UK. The heterogeneity of outcomes and measures seriously impacted on the ability to conduct meta-analyses. FUTURE WORK: Studies are needed that assess the effectiveness of interventions within a UK context, which address the wider effects of maltreatment, as well as specific clinical outcomes. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003889. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species. Elasmobranchs displayed high intra- and interspecific variability in vertical movement patterns. Substantial vertical overlap was observed for many epipelagic elasmobranchs, indicating an increased likelihood to display spatial overlap, biologically interact, and share similar risk to anthropogenic threats that vary on a vertical gradient. We highlight the critical next steps toward incorporating vertical movement into global management and monitoring strategies for elasmobranchs, emphasizing the need to address geographic and taxonomic biases in deployments and to concurrently consider both horizontal and vertical movements

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species. Elasmobranchs displayed high intra- and interspecific variability in vertical movement patterns. Substantial vertical overlap was observed for many epipelagic elasmobranchs, indicating an increased likelihood to display spatial overlap, biologically interact, and share similar risk to anthropogenic threats that vary on a vertical gradient. We highlight the critical next steps toward incorporating vertical movement into global management and monitoring strategies for elasmobranchs, emphasizing the need to address geographic and taxonomic biases in deployments and to concurrently consider both horizontal and vertical movements

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme