Blood feeding behaviour comparison and contribution of Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles gambiae, two sibling species living in sympatry, to malaria transmission in Alibori and Donga region, northern Benin, West Africa

Background: The main goal of this study was to assess the blood feeding behaviour and the contribution Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles gambiae, 2 sibling species of An. gambiae sensu stricto. present and living in sympatry in 2 regions of northern Benin targeted for indoor residual spraying (IRS).Methods: The study was carried out in 6 districts of 2 regions of Benin (Alibori and Donga). Human landing catches (HLC) performed inside and outside of the households and pyrethrum spray captures (PSC) carried out in bedrooms were used to sample vector populations (An. gambiae and An. coluzzii). Collected mosquitoes were analysed to esti-mate the human biting rate indoors and outdoors, the circumsporozoite antigen positivity, and the anthropophagic index using ELISA methodology. Polymerase chain reaction was used to estimate the frequency of the knockdown resistance (kdr) L1014F and the ace-1 mutations, 2 markers associated respectively with pyrethroids and carbamate/organophosphate insecticide resistance.Results: A higher blood feeding rate was observed in An. gambiae compared to An. coluzzii as well as, a non-pro-nounced outdoor biting behavior in both species. The latter showed similar anthropophagic and sporozoite rates. However the analysis indicates a seasonal difference in the contribution of each species to malaria transmission associated with shifts in resting behaviour. Anopheles coluzzii females accounted for most of the detected infections: 86% in Alibori and 79% in Donga, during the dry season versus 14.4% and 21.2%, respectively for An. gambiae during the same period. This relationship was reversed in Donga during the rainy season (66% for An. gambiae against 34% for An. coluzzii). Results also indicated lower frequencies of kdr L1014F and ace-1 in An. coluzzii versus An. gambiae.Conclusion: Despite similarity in some parameters related to malaria transmission in both surveyed species, An. coluzzii is potentially a more important malaria vector because of high density in the region. It is also charac-terized by lower frequencies of the ace-1 mutation than is An. gambiae. The ongoing use of pirimiphos methyl (organophosphate) for IRS should continue to show a good impact in Alibori and Donga because of the very low level of the ace-1 mutation in both species

Pain levels and associated factors in the Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network (SPIN) cohort: a multicentre cross-sectional study

Background: Pain is an important and detrimental feature of systemic sclerosis but is often overlooked or deprioritised in research and clinical care. Raynaud's phenomenon, arthritis, and cutaneous ulcers are among the commonly reported disease manifestations of systemic sclerosis that could be associated with pain. We aimed to assess levels of pain intensity and interference and to evaluate disease factors associated with pain intensity and interference. Methods: In this multicentre cross-sectional study, participants from the Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network cohort who completed pain intensity and interference measures (Patient Reported Outcomes Information System-29 profile, version 2·0) as part of baseline assessments were included. Patients were recruited from 46 centres in Australia, Canada, France, Mexico, Spain, the UK, and the USA between April 15, 2014, and Jan 7, 2020. Eligible patients included those aged 18 years or older who met the criteria for systemic sclerosis devised by the American College of Rheumatology and the European League Against Rheumatism. Associations of pain intensity and pain interference with systemic sclerosis-related variables and overlap syndromes, controlling for sociodemographic variables, were assessed with multiple linear regression. Continuous independent variables were standardised. Findings: Among 2157 participants with systemic sclerosis (268 [12%] males and 1889 [88%] females), 1870 (87%) reported mild, moderate, or severe pain (defined as ≥1 on a 0 to 10 scale), and 815 (38%) reported moderate or severe pain (defined as ≥5). Moreover, 757 (35%) participants reported moderate or severe pain interference. Greater pain intensity was independently associated with female sex (0·58 points [95% CI 0·26–0·90]), non-White race or ethnicity (0·50 points [0·21–0·79]), fewer years in formal education (0·30 points per SD [0·19–0·41]), country (reference: USA; Canada: 0·29 points [0·01–0·57] and UK: 0·58 points [0·21–0·95]), greater body-mass index (0·35 points per SD [0·24–0·45]); joint contractures (0·67 points [0·39–0·94]), digital ulcers (0·33 points [0·10–0·55]), gastrointestinal involvement (0·66 points [0·33–0·98]), skin involvement (measured using modified Rodnan skin score; 0·22 points per SD [0·10–0·35]), rheumatoid arthritis (0·96 points [0·50–1·43]), and Sjögren's syndrome (0·42 points [0·01–0·83]). Pain interference results were similar. Interpretation: Pain is common among people with systemic sclerosis. Controlling for sociodemographic variables, greater pain was associated with multiple systemic sclerosis-related manifestations, including joint contractures, digital ulcers, gastrointestinal involvement, skin involvement, and the presence of overlap syndromes. Health-care providers should work with patients to address pain, including identifying and addressing systemic sclerosis manifestations associated with their pain, and supporting behavioural approaches to minimise impact on function and quality of life. Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Arthritis Society, The Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research of the Jewish General Hospital, Jewish General Hospital Foundation, McGill University, Scleroderma Society of Ontario, Scleroderma Canada, Sclérodermie Québec, Scleroderma Manitoba, Scleroderma Atlantic, Scleroderma Association of BC, Scleroderma SASK, Scleroderma Australia, Scleroderma New South Wales, Scleroderma Victoria, and Scleroderma Queensland

Randomized controlled trial of an internet-based self-guided hand exercise program to improve hand function in people with systemic sclerosis: the Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network Hand Exercise Program (SPIN-HAND) trial

BACKGROUND: Systemic sclerosis (scleroderma; SSc) is a rare autoimmune connective tissue disease. Functional impairment of hands is common. The Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network (SPIN)-HAND trial compared effects of offering access to an online self-guided hand exercise program to usual care on hand function (primary) and functional health outcomes (secondary) in people with SSc with at least mild hand function limitations. METHODS: The pragmatic, two-arm, parallel-group cohort multiple randomized controlled trial was embedded in the SPIN Cohort. Cohort participants with Cochin Hand Function Scale (CHFS) scores ≥ 3 and who indicated interest in using the SPIN-HAND Program were randomized (3:2 ratio) to an offer of program access or to usual care (targeted N = 586). The SPIN-HAND program consists of 4 modules that address (1) thumb flexibility and strength; (2) finger bending; (3) finger extension; and (4) wrist flexibility and strength. The primary outcome analysis compared CHFS scores 3 months post-randomization between participants offered versus not offered the program. Secondary outcomes were CHFS scores 6 months post-randomization and functional health outcomes (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System profile version 2.0 domain scores) 3 and 6 months post-randomization. RESULTS: In total, 466 participants were randomized to intervention offer (N = 280) or usual care (N = 186). Of 280 participants offered the intervention, 170 (61%) consented to access the program. Of these, 117 (69%) viewed at least one hand exercise instruction video and 77 (45%) logged into the program website at least 3 times. In intent-to-treat analyses, CHFS scores were 1.2 points lower (95% CI − 2.8 to 0.3) for intervention compared to usual care 3 months post-randomization and 0.1 points lower (95% CI − 1.8 to 1.6 points) 6 months post-randomization. There were no statistically significant differences in other outcomes. CONCLUSION: The offer to use the SPIN-HAND Program did not improve hand function. Low offer uptake, program access, and minimal usage among those who accessed the program limited our ability to determine if using the program would improve function. To improve engagement, the program could be tested in a group format or as a resource to support care provided by a physical or occupational therapist. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03419208. Registered on February 1, 2018

Evaluation of Measurement Properties and Differential Item Functioning in the English and French Versions of the University of California, Los Angeles, Loneliness Scale-6: A Scleroderma Patient-Centered Intervention Network (SPIN) Study

Objective: Loneliness has been associated with poorer health-related quality of life but has not been studied in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). The current study was undertaken to examine and compare the psychometric properties of the English and French versions of the University of California, Los Angeles, Loneliness Scale-6 (ULS-6) in patients with SSc during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study used baseline cross-sectional data from 775 adults enrolled in the Scleroderma Patient-Centered Intervention Network (SPIN) COVID-19 Cohort. Reliability and validity of ULS-6 scores overall and between languages were evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), differential item functioning (DIF) through the multiple-indicator multiple-cause (MIMIC) model, omega/alpha calculation, and correlations of hypothesized convergent relationships. Results: CFA for the total sample supported the single-factor structure (comparative fit index [CFI] 0.96, standardized root mean residual [SRMR] 0.03), and all standardized factor loadings for items were large (0.60–0.86). The overall MIMIC model with language as a covariate fit well (CFI 0.94, SRMR 0.04, root mean square error of approximation 0.11). Statistically significant DIF was found for 3 items across language (βitem2 = 0.14, P < 0.001; βitem4 = –0.07, P = 0.01; βitem6 = 0.13, P < 0.001), but these small differences were without practical measurement implications. Analyses demonstrated high internal consistency with no language-based convergent validity differences. Conclusion: Analyses demonstrated evidence of acceptable reliability and validity of ULS-6 scores in English- and French-speaking adults with SSc. DIF analysis supported use of the ULS-6 to examine comparative experiences of loneliness without adjusting for language

Patterns of patient-reported symptoms and association with sociodemographic and systemic sclerosis disease characteristics: a scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network (SPIN) Cohort cross-sectional study

Background: Systemic sclerosis is a heterogenous disease in which little is known about patterns of patient-reported symptom clusters. We aimed to identify classes of individuals with similar anxiety, depression, fatigue, sleep disturbance, and pain symptoms and to evaluate associated sociodemographic and disease-related characteristics. Methods: This multi-centre cross-sectional study used baseline data from Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network Cohort participants enrolled from 2014 to 2020. Eligible participants completed the PROMIS-29 v2.0 measure. Latent profile analysis was used to identify homogeneous classes of participants based on patterns of anxiety, depression, fatigue, sleep disturbance, and pain scores. Sociodemographic and disease-related characteristics were compared across classes. Findings: Among 2212 participants, we identified five classes, including four classes with “Low” (565 participants, 26%), “Normal” (651 participants, 29%), “High” (569 participants, 26%), or “Very High” (193 participants, 9%) symptom levels across all symptoms. Participants in a fifth class, “High Fatigue/Sleep/Pain and Low Anxiety/Depression” (234 participants, 11%) had similar levels of fatigue, sleep disturbance, and pain as in the “High” class but low anxiety and depression symptoms. There were significant and substantive trends in sociodemographic characteristics (age, education, race or ethnicity, marital or partner status) and increasing disease severity (diffuse disease, tendon friction rubs, joint contractures, gastrointestinal symptoms) across severity-based classes. Disease severity and sociodemographic characteristics of “High Fatigue/Sleep/Pain and Low Anxiety/Depression” class participants were similar to the “High” severity class. Interpretation: Most people with systemic sclerosis can be classified by levels of patient-reported symptoms, which are consistent across symptoms and highly associated with sociodemographic and disease-related variables, except for one group which reports low mental health symptoms despite high levels of other symptoms and substantial disease burden. Studies are needed to better understand resilience in systemic sclerosis and to identify and facilitate implementation of cognitive and behavioural strategies to improve coping and overall quality of life. Funding: National Institute of Nursing Research (F31NR019007), Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Arthritis Society Canada, the Lady Davis Institute for Medical Research, the Jewish General Hospital Foundation, McGill University, Scleroderma Society of Ontario, Scleroderma Canada, Sclérodermie Québec, Scleroderma Manitoba, Scleroderma Atlantic, Scleroderma Association of BC, Scleroderma SASK, Scleroderma Australia, Scleroderma New South Wales, Scleroderma Victoria, and Scleroderma Queensland

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION: Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe