Proposing a Conceptual Framework: Social Media Infodemic Listening for Public Health Behaviors

Various communication and behavioral theories have been adopted to address health infodemics. However, there is no framework specially designed for social listening studies using social media data, machine learning, and natural language processing techniques. We aimed to propose a novel yet theory-based conceptual framework for infodemic research. We collected theories and models used in COVID-19 related studies published in peer-reviewed journals, ranging from health behavior, communication, to infodemic studies. These were analyzed and critiqued for their components, and we subsequently proposed a conceptual framework with a demonstration. Accordingly, we proposed our “Social Media Listening for Public Health Behavior” conceptual framework by not only integrating important attributes of existing theories, but also adding new attributes. The proposed conceptual framework can be used to better understand public discourse on social media, and can be integrated with other data analyses to gather a more comprehensive picture

Biobehavioral Aspects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review

OBJECTIVE: This review highlights the scope and significance of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with a focus on biobehavioral aspects and critical avenues for research. METHODS: A narrative review of the published research literature was undertaken, highlighting major empirical findings emerging during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Interactions among biological, behavioral, and societal processes were prominent across all regions of the globe during the first year of the COVID-19 emergency. Affective, cognitive, behavioral, socioeconomic, and technological factors all played a significant role in the spread of infection, response precautions, and outcomes of mitigation efforts. Affective symptoms, suicidality, and cognitive dysfunction have been widely described consequences of the infection, the economic fallout, and the necessary public health mitigation measures themselves. The impact of COVID-19 may be especially serious for those living with severe mental illness and/or chronic medical diseases, given the confluence of several adverse factors in a manner that appears to have syndemic potential. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has made clear that biological and behavioral factors interact with societal processes in the infectious disease context. Empirical research examining mechanistic pathways from infection and recovery to immunological, behavioral, and emotional outcomes is critical. Examination of how emotional and behavioral factors relate to the pandemic-both as causes and as effects-can provide valuable insights that can improve management of the current pandemic and future pandemics to come

Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study

Background Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05–10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16–1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01–1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16–0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the age-standardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (–1·3% [–1·5 to −1·2]) than mortality did (–4·5% [–5·0 to −4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was −4·0% (–4·5 to −3·7) and mortality was −8·9% (–9·5 to −8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality). Interpretation If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV

Hepatitis C virus reinfection after successful treatment with direct-acting antiviral therapy in a large population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Direct-acting antiviral therapies (DAA) are an important tool for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. However, reinfection among people who inject drugs (PWID) may hamper elimination targets. Therefore, we estimated HCV reinfection rates among DAA-treated individuals, including PWID. METHODS: We analyzed data from the British Columbia Hepatitis Testers Cohort which included ∼1.7 million individuals screened for HCV in British Columbia, Canada. We followed HCV-infected individuals treated with DAAs who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) and had ≥1 subsequent HCV RNA measurement to April 22nd, 2018. Reinfection was defined as a positive RNA measurement after SVR. PWID were identified using a validated algorithm and classified based on recent (<3 years) or former (≥3 years before SVR) use. Crude reinfection rates per 100 person-years (PYs) were calculated. Poisson regression was used to model adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: Of 4,114 individuals who met the inclusion criteria, most were male (n = 2,692, 65%), born before 1965 (n = 3,411, 83%) and were either recent (n = 875, 21%) or former PWID (n = 1,793, 44%). Opioid-agonist therapy (OAT) was received by 19% of PWID. We identified 40 reinfections during 2,767 PYs. Reinfection rates were higher among recent (3.1/100 PYs; IRR 6.7; 95% CI 1.9-23.5) and former PWID (1.4/100 PYs; IRR 3.7; 95% CI 1.1-12.9) than non-PWID (0.3/100 PYs). Among recent PWID, reinfection rates were higher among individuals born after 1975 (10.2/100 PYs) and those co-infected with HIV (5.7/100 PYs). Only one PWID receiving daily OAT developed reinfection. CONCLUSIONS: Population-level reinfection rates remain elevated after DAA therapy among PWID because of ongoing exposure risk. Engagement of PWID in harm-reduction and support services is needed to prevent reinfections. LAY SUMMARY: Direct-acting antivirals are an effective tool for the treatment of hepatitis C virus, enabling the elimination of the virus. However, some patients who have been successfully treated with direct-acting antivirals are at risk of reinfection. Our findings showed that the risk of reinfection was highest among people with recent injection drug use. Among people who inject drugs, daily use of opioid-agonist therapy was associated with a lower risk of reinfection

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Correlates of cigarette smoking among male college students in Karachi, Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>About 1.3 billion people are regular smokers world wide and every day between 8,200 and 9,900 young people start to smoke, risking rapid addiction to nicotine. Transition from high school to college is a critical period to adopt healthy habits and life style. Therefore, it is important to understand the factors that might influence their smoking habit. Our study aims to assess the influence of factors that encourage college students to smoke cigarettes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data used in this survey were obtained from a representative sample of registered colleges of Karachi. A random sample of 576 male college students of ages ranging from 15–30 years was interviewed using a questionnaire administered by survey officers, by applying multi stage cluster sampling during the academic year 2004–2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this study, we found 26.7% of students had ever tried smoking, whereas 24%(95% CI: 21.0%–28.0%) of college students reported current smoking (that is whether one had smoked a cigarette in past 30 days). Among different age groups, prevalence of current smoking was 19.2% in 15–17 years, 26.5% in 18–20 years and 65% in 21 years and above. After adjusting for age of respondent, students in public schools were more likely to smoke as compared to students in private schools (adjusted OR = 2.3; 95% CI: 1.3–4.2). Students whose friends are smokers were 5 times more likely to smoke compared to those whose friends are non-smokers (adjusted OR = 4.8; 95%CI: 3.1 – 7.4). Those students having fathers with no formal schooling were more likely to smoke (adjusted OR = 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1–4.2) as compared to those whose fathers had some degree of education. Students having non-working mothers were more likely to smoke as compared to students with working mothers (adjusted OR = 2.8; 95% CI: 0.9–9.1). Students belonging to Bin Qasim (adjusted OR = 2.1; 95% C.I: 1.1–4.1) and Gadap town (adjusted OR = 2.1; 95%C.I) were more likely to smoke as compared to students residing in other towns.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study shows that smoking is strongly associated with age, which may suggest social tolerance to smoking in this setting and that social and educational variables appear to play a significant role in smoking among college students. Our study suggests that such factors should be taken into account when designing effective tobacco control programs among college students. This is an effort which has been done to reduce tobacco consumption among college students and introduce awareness programs to amend their health risk behavior.</p

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010–19 period. Findings Globally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised incidence rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer decreased by 7·4% (−16·8 to 1·6) and age-standardised incidence rates of larynx cancer decreased by 3·0% (−10·5 to 5·0) in males over the past decade; however, during the same period, age-standardised incidence rates in females increased by 0·9% (−8·2 to 10·2) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and decreased by 0·5% (−8·4 to 8·1) for larynx cancer. Furthermore, although age-standardised incidence and death rates declined in both sexes combined from 2010 to 2019 at the global level for tracheal, bronchus, lung and larynx cancers, some locations had rising rates, particularly those on the lower end of the SDI range. Smoking contributed to an estimated 64·2% (61·9–66·4) of all deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and 63·4% (56·3–69·3) of all deaths from larynx cancer in 2019. For males and for both sexes combined, smoking was the leading specific risk factor for age-standardised deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer per 100 000 in all SDI quintiles and GBD regions in 2019. However, among females, household air pollution from solid fuels was the leading specific risk factor in the low SDI quintile and in three GBD regions (central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa) in 2019. Interpretation The numbers of incident cases and deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer increased globally during the past decade. Even more concerning, age-standardised incidence and death rates due to tracheal, bronchus, lung cancer and larynx cancer increased in some populations—namely, in the lower SDI quintiles and among females. Preventive measures such as smoking control interventions, air quality management programmes focused on major air pollution sources, and widespread access to clean energy should be prioritised in these settings.publishedVersio